This weekend the Cup series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the second race in the third round of the playoffs. Joey Logano pulled off a surprise win last weekend at Kansas. He was outside of the cutline heading into that race and has made things interesting with that final spot especially if we get another surprise winner from below the cutline this week. Texas is a 1.5 mile track that compares well with Charlotte and Atlanta minus the tire wear. We can use the results at those tracks this season in our research for this weekends race even though it has been awhile since they have raced at either of them during this season. As far as strategy goes, I will be focusing on getting 2-3 dominators in my lineups this weekend. The truck series runs prior to the Cup race so there will be some wear on the track.
Kevin Harvick (DK $11,000 FD $14,000)
When the Cup series has come to Texas the last three seasons in the fall, one driver has left with all three trophies. That driver is Kevin Harvick. In those three victories he has led over 100 laps in two of those wins including last season when he started on the pole and dominated. He starts from the pole tomorrow and there is a competition caution so I am a little concerned they pit and lose the lead on pit road, but his history here proves that we can count on him to find his way back up front if that does happen. I expect Kevin to be a popular play in cash games tomorrow and you could look to pivot of Kevin in tournaments as a ownership leverage spot.
Ryan Blaney (DK $10,000 FD $11,600)
Well the drivers ahead of Ryan in DraftKings are all great options on Sunday, Ryan doesn’t have the pressure of needing a good finish or stage points to help him get into the next round. Blaney is just going out to get trophies at this point being out of the playoffs since round 1. Blaney starts 10th on Sunday and has decent track history at Texas and has shown speed at 1.5 mile tracks this season. At this track earlier this season, Blaney dominated leading 150 laps and has led 40 or more laps here in three of the last four races at this track. Also it is important to note on how fast Penske has been late on in the season and should continue again on Sunday.
Erik Jones (DK $8,900 FD $10,700)
Jones has finally found a spot next season as it was announced he will drive the infamous 43 car after this season. This should provide some relief to Jones this weekend as he is no longer racing to audition for a ride. Its great timing as Texas is a decent track for Erik. He has a career average finish of 9th here and has only finished outside of the top 12 once in eight career races here. He starts 17th and provides decent pd upside at a reasonable price. He finished 6th here earlier this season leading 6 laps and has led laps in half of the races he has run at this track in his Cup career.
Clint Bowyer (DK $8,700 FD $10,200)
Clint Bowyer is on the home stretch of his Cup career with only 3 races left before he heads to the booth. Texas is a solid track for him as he finished 11th here earlier this season and has four top 11 finishes in the last 5 races here. He starts 21st and is a decent place differential option even though his teammate Aric Almirola has higher finish position upside in my opinion. SHR is set up to have a good race on Sunday and may even put the top 3 SHR cars in a stack for a tournament.
Kurt Busch (DK $8,500 FD $10.500)
Kurt finds himself in a win or he is out situation after blowing an engine at Kansas last weekend. Texas has been a really good track for Kurt especially in recent years. Kurt hasn’t finished outside of the top ten in the last seven races here. I don’t think he will have the fastest car out there on Sunday but he has already proved this season that his crew chief and him are willing to take risks with strategy to put himself out front or with a chance to win. Kurt’s need to win makes him a great tournament play on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick (DK $7,900 FD $9,200)
Well Reddick did finish second here earlier this season that came from strategy play not just being a fast car all day. However if we look at Reddick’s history this season at similar tracks we see that he has been decent at them as well with finishes of 8th, 14th and 16th. He starts 19th on Sunday and has some pd upside at this price and his finish position upside also intrigues me as I think he has shown he has top 10 upside. If the second lane comes into play on Sunday that will also help Reddick as he has shown he is capable of driving where the car handles the best and has the best speed.
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