This week we are in Fontana for the third and final west coast race this spring. We are running the whole new package for 2019 here (550hp and air ducts). This is the first time they will be racing with it at a 2 mile track this year. Fontana is also a high tire wear track. Looking into this race we want to compare results from Atlanta this year and Vegas where we had tire wear(Atlanta) and full package(Vegas). We can also look at past results from here and Michigan as they are similar tracks. When looking at practice speeds we want to concentrate on 10 and 15 lap averages to see who runs better in long runs as there won’t be as many cautions as last weekend at Phoenix and will need drivers that can manage their tire wear.
Martin Truex Jr. (FD $13,700 DK $10,000)
Welcome to your chalk driver of the weekend. Prior to qualifying, MTJ was going to be a driver we were going to look at as a dominator as he has the best driver rating here in recent history. When he qualified 27th, he became a draftkings cash game staple. He will be the highest owned driver this weekend for cash games and rightfully so. His qualifying lap was impeded by a car and that put him below the cut line for the next round. He has the speed, 9th in average speed, and has done well with the new package this year so far.
Kyle Busch (FD $14,800 DK $12,600)
If you plan on using a dominator in your cash lineup, I would look Kyle’s way. Kyle has the 5th highest driver ranking in recent history and 3rd highest careerwise at Fontana. Kyle is also going for series win 200 if you are a narrative person. I will definitely have my shares of Kyle Busch in gpps on both sites. I haven’t decided if he will make my cash lineup on dk or if I am going a more place differential approach there. Kyle has done well so far adjusting to this package this season with top 10 finishes every week. He also had a good 10 lap average in practice.
Brad Keselowski (FD $13,200 DK $11,500)
Brad Keselowski will be my gpp pivot on both sites. On DK, Brad will be overlooked by Harvick and Busch(dominators) above him and by Larson( pd and great track history) below him. He wont garner as much ownership and I think he has a great chance at winning this race this week. His car is fast and he was one of the top drivers in long run speed in practice along with his teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. Brad’s last four finishes here are 1st,9th,2nd and 4th.
Erik Jones (FD $9,800 DK $8,200)
Oh Erik Jones….. Last week Erik was my pivot in cash games on FD to separate from the chalk line over Almirola. It was going ok until he cut a tire and we were behind the eight ball the rest of the day. This week we forget about last and look at Erik for what he can provide us this week. Take out last weeks tire issue and we see that Erik has done well with the new package this year. He was another driver who had good average lap speed in practice and if we look at his two cup races here in Fontana we see he has finished 7th and 12th. He starts 18th which will give us good place differential upside for his price on Draftkings and I could see a possible top 10 for him this week for Fanduel.
Kurt Busch (FD $10,800 DK $9,100)
Kurt Busch is a cash game play this week. I’ve been very impressed by him this year so far over at CGR. In the the three non-restrictor plate races, he has finished 3rd, 5th, and 7th. Kurt starts 21st, mainly because he decided he didn’t want to wait til the end to run his lap like the rest of the field and went out by himself. Kurt’s overall driver rating here ranks 6th and between 2012 and 2015 finished no worse than 9th. I think Kurt makes the adjustments tomorrow to give us positive place differential and finishes top 12 on Sunday.
Paul Menard (FD $7,000 DK $6,700)
Paul Menard starts 25th this week. Since 2011, he has finished in the top 20, 7 of those 8 races. The average speed has not been out of this world this weekend. However Menard is “in” the Penske camp and those drivers have all had speed this weekend. At his price, I could see him moving into the top 20 and giving us positive pd points and a decent finish. He’s a gpp play for sure and one that i don’t think will have a lot of ownership. I’d also put Daniel Hemric(FD GPP only) in this category as well and Matt DiBenedetto as a good gpp value option.
Other Value Options for Draftkings
Michael McDowell(starts 29th, high floor, good at plate tracks and with this package it could run like one)
Matt Tifft (concerned about engine change but finished 21st last week and has a decent floor starting 32nd)
Also include Bubba Wallace and Corey LaJoie as possible value options on Draftkings.
