UFC Austin
Main Event
Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett
Featherweight
Excited for this fight simply because Kattar doesn’t know boring. He’s won 3 of his last 4. He ate 445 SS from Max Hollaway in their 2021 meeting, so toughness is obviously not of concern either. I think he has one potential title run left in him, and the UFC surely won’t match Holloway/Volkanovski again after this upcoming fight. So Kattar needs this. Emmett is trying to make a case for himself as well late in his career, he’s 37yrs old, but has gone on a nice run. He’s won 4 straight, looking to make it 5. Emmett is a well rounded fighter, he’s got solid striking, and can lean on a solid wrestling gm if needed. His biggest asset is his power, he’s got one shot stopping power, and he’ll need to find it here to have a chance. Kattar has a very nice technical jab, and he uses it with forward pressure to essentially create brawls. Cardio is never really a true concern with him either. He can keep the same pace for 25mins. I don’t know that I can say the same for Emmett, the longer this goes, the more likely his chance of winning diminishes. Emmett also needs to overcome a 5’ height disadvantage and 2’ reach disadvantage. Kattar’s length and approach should allow him to stay clear of the big shots from Emmett. Emmett will probably try to lean more on his wrestling as a result. I don’t know that he’ll have meaningful control time that it’ll matter though. If Kattar is on card, you need him in your LU. On FD he’s the cptn you want. His volume can get pretty insane. Give me Kattar via decision.
PICK: Calvin Kattar $21 FD ($8800 DK)
Josh Emmett $16 FD ($7400 DK)
Kevin Holland vs Tim Means
Welterweight
This marks Holland’s 2nd stint at Welterweight, after pretty much plateauing at Middleweight. Holland made a name for hisself and became a fan favorite after going 5-0 in 2020. 2021 was his shot to potentially be at title contention, but losses to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson halted that chance. He was at a clear disadvantage against strong wrestlers, and that was the blueprint to beat him, because not many want to have a flat out kickboxing match with him. He’s got precise technical striking, and enough power to end a fight in short order. His welterweight debut vs Alex Oliveira this past March proved just that. He had an easier time getting back to his feet when things hit the mat in that one, and on the feet was a clear mismatch. Holland doesn’t throw overwhelming volume, but what he does throw he makes count. He lands 3.84 SS/m, and absorbs only 2.38 SS/m. He moves extremely well on his feet in and out of the pocket, and avoids big damage for the most part. On the other side, Means has won 4 of his last 5. Albeit against middle of the pack competition. He actually has more output on the feet in terms of stats; he lands 5.06 SS/m, and absorbs 3.58 SS/m. He has a solid wrestling gm to fall back on although he averages less than 1 TD per 15 mins (0.92). I could see him leaning more on that in this particular matchup however, but again I don’t expect that he’ll be able to keep Holland grounded for long periods enough for it to matter. This looks like another smash spot for Holland. I expect him to set the tone with distance early, and it’ll be up to Means to try and get his wrestling going from there. I think Holland can find himself another finish, I’ll say it comes 3rd RD this time around via KO/TKO.
PICK: Kevin Holland $20 FD ($8900 DK)
Tim Means $10 FD ($7300 DK)
Albert Duraev vs Joaquin Buckley
Middleweight
This is a big test for both fighters. This is Duraev’s 2nd UFC bout after having a successful debut vs Roman Kopylov this past October. Duraev is at his best as a wrestler/grappler chasing submissions and wearing down his opponents on the mat. He was only able to get 1 TD out of 9 attempts vs Kopylov in his debut, so he’ll need to be a lot more accurate there if he wants to have sustained success in this division. He gets the battle tested Buckley, who sits 4-2 in the UFC, and is coming off of a nice well rounded win over Abdul Razak Alhassan this past February. Due to the power both those guys have, many thought that fight was ending with someone’s lights being turned out, instead, both men showed solid wrestling approaches, and were able to get one another down several times in different exchanges. Buckley had 5/8 TDs. He’ll need every bit of that and more in this matchup. Duraev is a step up in terms of pure wrestling/grappling, and he’ll likely have more success with control if he’s able to get top control. The power advantage on the feet resides with Buckley, but Duraev seems durable enough that he may be able to take a couple big shots and bounce back, as he did in his debut. I like Duraev here, I just see the gap being a little too wide once things inevitably hit the mat. Buckley is KO or bust, so he’s worth a shot in LUs. But I see Duraev grinding out a decision.
PICK: Albert Duraev $18 FD ($8600 DK)
Joaquin Buckley $13 FD ($7600 DK)
Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze
Lightweight
I really love this matchup. 2 extremely solid UFC prospects facing off early in their UFC stints. Ismagulov is 4-0 in the UFC and 23-1 overall. Guram is just 1-0 in the UFC, but is solid everywhere the fight goes, mainly on the feet. He’s got solid powerful striking, and will mix in his kickboxing, throwing various levels of kicks to mix things up. In his debut vs Gamrot, he struggled a bit defending the TD, but didn’t settle and got it back to the feet. Ismagulov is also a solid striker, and is slightly more technical. Neither guy is going to throw an overwhelming amount of volume. Guram is a bit more aggressive, so I could see Ismagulov being more a counter striker in this particular matchup. Guram will like to press forward and force the action. Ismagulov is excellent in terms of his defensive striking, he only absorbs 1.9 SS/m. Whereas Guram absorbed about 3.47 SS/m in his debut. Which points to his more active approach. Ismagulov will try to spend as much time as possible on the mat though, he averages 1.75 TDs per 15mins, and again, Guram’s TDEF will always be tested against solid wrestlers/grapplers, and that’ll be no different here. This fight has split decision written all over it, because I give the edge to Guram on the feet, and the edge goes to Ismagulov on the mat. Ismagulov probably gets 3-4 TDs in this one, and if he can get a couple mins control time minimum each RD, that could be enough to get him the win. On the surface I’m having a hard time seeing this bout as DFS friendly, especially on FD. So I’ll largely be fading it, but excited to see it nonetheless. I like Ismagulov to get the decision win.
PICK: Damir Ismagulov $15 FD ($8400 DK)
Guram Kutateladze $14 FD ($7800 DK)
Gregory Rodrigues vs Julian Marquez
Middleweight
This fight is going to be a fun WAR. And on paper, Rodrigues would seem to be better everywhere, but that’s not exactly the case. Rodrigues likes to stand and trade on the feet, as evidenced by his landing 5.28 SS/m, but also absorbs 5.87 SS/m in return, so he’s giving one to take one right back. He’s shown to be durable, but against the harder punchers of the division, that’ll get him in trouble, especially since he doesn’t really move his head off the center line when he’s trading. But he’s got solid striking, and his power can cause trouble if he’s putting combinations together. Rodrigues is just 2-2 in the UFC so far though. Marquez is a tough out, no matter who he’s facing. He’s won 4 of his last 5, and is 3-1 in the UFC. He’s got solid striking hisself, doesn’t land at near as high a total, 4.2 SS/m, but is much better defensively and only absorbs 3.13 SS/m. And oddly enough, averages roughly 3 submission attempts per 15mins, but averages 0 TDs per 15mins. It’s normally his opponents who initiate the grappling, which then backfires because he’s pretty savvy off of his back. But Rodrigues is a BJJ Black belt, and those exchanges will come with much more resistance this time around. Rodrigues could 100% catch Marquez on the feet with something, but I don’t see that happening, and I believe Marquez will have enough success on the feet to make those exchanges close. This’ll come down to the latter rounds of this bout, and Marquez’s cardio is a tad better late. I favor Marquez slightly to get the decision, but definitely will play both sides of this one.
PICK: Julian Marquez $14 FD ($7700 DK)
Gregory Rodrigues $17 FD ($8500 DK)
Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley
Bantamweight
This has FOTN potential written all over it. I’m surprised the line on this fight was as wide as it is. It’s no secret Kelley has made himself public enemy number 1 with some remarks he recently made. So I’ve already seen it out there that people are hoping and praying Yanez starches him on the feet. That won’t come so easy though. Both these guys fight an extremely high pace. Yanez lands 6.35 SS/m, but absorbs 5.52 SS in return. We saw in his bout vs Randy Costa the troubles he had defensively before Costa basically gassed himself and Yanez turned the corner in RD 2. Yanez’s striking is his bread and butter, when he’s got it going, it’s a thing of beauty. But he sometimes fights with his hands too low as he enters the pocket, and that’s part of his poor defensive striking numbers. Kelley lands 5.58 SS/m, and absorbs 4.43 SS/m, so he’s slightly better in that regard. On top of that, he hasn’t been finished yet in his career, so durability typically isn’t a concern. He applies constant pressure, and by RD 2, Yanez should largely be in a counter striking situation. Neither guy here will actively shoot for TDs, but Kelley isn’t shy about going for a submission if things get there, and I think he’ll be the better wrestler between them if it does. As much as I like Yanez, I feel like this is the perfect time to fade, the public will be slightly heavier on him just banking on the finish, which will result in what should be pretty low ownership on Kelley to take advantage of. I think Kelley weathers the early storm and gets a decision win here, possibly even finding a finish of his own. Which would smash value.
PICK: Tony Kelley $9 FD ($6800 DK)
Adrian Yanez $22 FD ($9400 DK)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Natalia Silva
Women’s Flyweight
On paper this fight is uninspiring. Jasudavicius is coming off of a debut win over Kay Hansen (no longer in the UFC), and is looking to make it 2. Her size will be an advantage again in this one. She’ll stand about 3’ taller. In her debut vs Hansen, it was mainly Hansen’s lack of fight IQ that allowed Jasudavicius to be as successful as she was on the mat with control time. Hansen just wasn’t very good and accepted positions too often. On the feet, Jasudavicius has solid technical striking, but won’t throw a ton of volume and also lacks power. On the flip side, Silva is making her UFC debut, and hasn’t fought in nearly 3yrs, so seems odd she’s making her debut after such a long layoff. She’s won 6 fights in a row though, all by submission. So the talent is clearly there. On the feet, this fight is probably a wash. The biggest disadvantage for Silva is the height discrepancy, if it weren’t for that, I’d likely give her the edge there. I understand the physical advantage for Jasudavicius here when it hits the mat, but she could put herself in trouble playing too long on the mat, as Silva doesn’t mind setting up an arm bar from her back. This fight will be dog or pass for me, and I’m hoping for a Silva submission in that instance. If this fight doesn’t finish, the ceiling for both in terms of scoring is extremely low. It’s much more ideal for DK as opposed to FD. I’m taking Silva via decision though.
PICK: Natalia Silva $13 FD ($7100 DK)
Jasmine Jasudavicius $18 FD ($9100 DK)
Jeremiah Wells vs Court McGee
Welterweight
Surprisingly only 2yrs separates these 2 in age, but the clear advantage in terms of experience goes to McGee, this being his 33rd professional fight, while Wells enters just his 14th professional fight at 35yrs old. Wells has started his UFC campaign off at 2-0, with 2 finishes (1 submission, 1 KO/TKO). So he’s well rounded, and will have a physical advantage in a good bit of his future fights at welterweight. He has immense power in his striking, and if he can land combinations cleanly it could be trouble. On the other side, McGee has looked amazing his last couple times out, especially in terms of his conditioning. He’s on a 2 fight win streak, looking to make it 3. He’s a well rounded fighter, but looks to dominate in the wrestling exchanges to pull away on the cards. He’s got good volume on the feet however too, landing 4.69 SS/m. He lands roughly 1.87 TDs per 15mins as well, but only at a 25% clip. Against a guy as physically gifted as Wells is, early on he’ll likely have trouble getting him to the mat, in fact, the first 5mins will be spent trying to avoid the big shot from Wells, if he’s able to do that, I think he’ll start to distance himself on the scorecard with effectiveness in the wrestling exchanges. Wells can burn himself out a bit with his early pace, and that’s the type of fights McGee welcomes when things can get dirty as the fight progresses. The odds on this are close for a reason, I’d like to think McGee’s experience and durability will keep him safe early on from getting KO’ed, and if that’s the case. I think it’s tough to see him losing a decision. I like McGee by a hair.
PICK: Court McGee $15 FD ($8200 DK)
Jeremiah Wells $15 FD ($8000 DK)
Ricardo Ramos vs Danny Chavez
Featherweight
Ramos is 6-3 overall in the UFC, and is 3-2 over his last 5. His most recent being an L this last October to Zubaira Tukhugov. He’s still on 26yrs old though, and is continuing to get better. He’s really well rounded. He can mix things up on the feet with his kickboxing, or look to chain TDs together to look for submissions. His output on the feet isn’t great, as he only lands 3.32 SS/m, but that’s in part due to the grappling approach he’ll take in his fights. He lands 2.61 TDs per 15mins. On the other side, Chavez is 1-1-1 to start his UFC campaign, with the most recent being a draw vs Kai Kamaka. He’s another guy who doesn’t have a ton of volume, and will look to slow opponents down with heavy leg kicks that he mixes in with his striking. He’s also got solid wrestling/grappling, and averages 2 TDs per 15mins. Between the two, I could see Chavez wanting to be more active in terms of shooting for TDs as opposed to Ramos, because Ramos should be better anywhere this fight is. The numbers from either guy assuming this is a decision won’t get you a TD though, and for that reason I’m probably fading entirely, especially at Ramos’ price. But I think Ramos gets a pretty clear decision across the board in this one.
PICK: Ricardo Ramos $22 FD ($9300 DK)
Danny Chavez $9 FD ($6900 DK)
Gloria De Paula vs Maria Oliveira
Women’s Strawweight
This should be a kickboxing match on the feet for most of it. Oliveira is just 0-1 in the UFC, while De Paula is 1-2. She picked up her first win her last time out vs Diana Belbita this past February. She showed an improved striking gm, mainly in her counter striking, and she just outpointed Belbita every step of the way. She also moved well in and out of the pocket and caused Belbita to miss a lot. Oliveira will have the power advantage on the feet I feel like, slightly. But she has issues swinging and missing big, she’s landed at a 37% accuracy. She does land 4.1 SS/m, but absorbs 5.37 SS/m. You’d hope to see these stats in reverse. Where this fight could take a change is in the grappling, neither woman is particularly great in that department, but Oliveira is the better offensive grappler, and if she’s able to get a couple TDs, she could get some nice control time. De Paula’s TDEF is only 68%. Neither really sets up shooting for the TD though, so I think that’s still a stretch to see for any long period of time. The striking accuracy of De Paula will make the difference here I feel like, she’ll counter strike effectively again which’ll look good in the judges eye. A decision is the most likely outcome. If she lands 80-90 SS with a decision win, she’ll put up a decent score, don’t know that she’ll reach value on DK though, she’ll be closer on FD.
PICK: Gloria De Paula $19 FD ($9200 DK)
Maria Oliveira $12 FD ($7000 DK)
Cody Stamann vs Eddie Wineland
Bantamweight
Both guys are in desperate need for a win here. Although Wineland is more on his way to being done with his career probably. He’s lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Stamann is on a skid too, he’s lost 3 straight, and is 1-3-1 over his last 5. It’s clear there’s a ceiling with Stamann, and he’s probably reached it. He’ll settle around fringe too 15 at best I feel like. This matchup is much more suitable for him. At his best, Wineland is pretty solid anywhere the fight goes, but prefers a standup battle. He’s a lot less accurate these days because he tries to load up sometimes with his shots to get the KO. He does move pretty good on his feet in terms of pocket presence, but sometimes his hands drop a bit too much and that leaves him open for big counters. We saw that his most recent time out vs Castaneda. Stamann is a relentless wrestler at his best. He wants to grind you out on the mat. He’ll hardly ever try getting actual submissions, it’s more so about positioning for ground and pound. He averages nearly 3 TDs per 15mins, but if he finds success, he’ll exceed that number pretty easily. Wineland’s TDEF has held up for the most part over his career (86%), but it’s clear he’s not what he once was athletically, so the openings will be there. Stamann has a chance on the feet to spark Wineland with something, but I think he’ll spend too much time in the wrestling for it to matter. Stamann is an easy fade for me on both sites, but especially FD. I just find it extremely hard for him to get 5 to 6X’s his value at that price, which is what you’re looking for. I’ve got him winning a unanimous decision.
PICK: Cody Stamann $23 FD ($9500 DK)
Eddie Wineland $8 ($6700 DK)
Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
Middleweight
One of the biggest mysteries in the UFC is why exactly is Winn fighting at Middleweight? He’s 5’6 but has managed to make weight at 185lbs. The longer he stays here, the more he’ll always almost be at a physical disadvantage in terms of height/reach discrepancies. Hawes will have a 6” height advantage, and 7” in reach. Oddly enough, his most recent bout was against Antonio Arroyo, who stands at 6’3. He won that bout via unanimous decision. That fight was at catchweight. So I know people want to make big light of the discrepancies, but Winn has been here before. However, Hawes will have a considerable power advantage that Arroyo didn’t have. Hawes has won 4 of his last 5. The most recent was him getting the KO loss to Chris Curtis. Winn isn’t going to want to stand in the pocket and trade with anyone in this division, let alone Hawes. Winn’s coach is Khabib, so I know he’s been polishing his wrestling/grappling, but it won’t matter if he’s KO’ed on the canvas. He absorbs 5.1 SS/m. If he can get his wrestling going, I believe he can find enough success as the fight goes to maybe steal this one, but it’ll be tough. He averages 5.98 TDs per 15mins. Hawes on the flip side averages 2.4 TDs per 15’ins hisself. So if the striking doesn’t go as planned RD 1, we could see it from both sides. Hawes’ TDEF has held up nicely to this point though (100%). Something will give. I don’t know how Winn survive getting touched with a few big combinations though, I think Hawes finds a late RD 1 finish, making him a nice play for LUs.
PICK: Phil Hawes $20 FD ($9000 DK)
Deron Winn $10 FD ($7200 DK)
Kyle Daukaus vs Roman Dolidze
Middleweight
Middleweight division is on full display this card, have 4 total bouts, and this one opens the card. Neither of these men are in any fights that scream excitement, but they stick to their game plan. Daukaus is more effective as a counter striker on the feet, but he’ll likely be the one setting the pace on the feet, Dolidze is even more of a slow paced counter striker. He likes to stalk his opponents a bit, will use his kickboxing throwing various kicks to the body/legs to try and close distance. Dolidze averages 2.74 TDs per 15mins, and Daukaus averages 2.4 TDs per 15mins. And when it’s on the mat, both look to get positioning to find a sub. From a physicality standpoint, I give the edge to Dolidze, if he’s able to get top control, I think he could have success with control time. Daukaus has seemed pretty content fighting off of his back. Daukaus should be able to out point him on the feet the longer it stays there though. This doesn’t scream DFS friendly, more so for FD as opposed to DK, but I favor the physicality of Dolidze to win a decision in the end. Either guy needs a finish to hit value, and that’s tough to see on either side of this one.
PICK: Roman Dolidze $11 FD ($7500 DK)
Kyle Daukaus $19 FD ($8700 DK)
Best of luck to you all!
by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
