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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Walt Harris
This is an extremely simple fight, but it’s one you need a part of. Walt Harris should have a massive striking advantage, while Aleksei Oleinik will have a massive grappling advantage. It comes down to who will be able to put themselves in a spot to use their advantage. Harris is an athletic fighter, who comes with solid takedown defense. While Oleinik only needs to get him down once for the potential submission, I expect Harris to keep this fight standing long enough for him to find a knockout. This fight is set at -610 to finish inside the distance, while Harris owns a -115 inside the distance line. He’s reasonably priced because the odds are relatively close, and one of these two fighters should be in each of your tournament lineups. I favor the athletic striker in this matchup.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree. Oleinik somehow keeps finding submission victories, and both fighters have wins against mediocre competition and losses against good competition. However, Harris is athletic enough to keep this fight standing, and his gas tank shouldn’t give out on him in this style of fight.
Jason’s Pick: Ray Borg
This fight has a lot of unknowable elements attached to it, but Ray Borg has massive upside, and he makes for a great tournament option, even at his high price tag. Gabriel Silva, UFC newcomer and brother of Erick Silva, makes his UFC debut against a fighter that went five rounds with Demetrious Johnson. Borg has struggled with weight cuts throughout his career, but he seems ready to go this weekend. After a unanimous decision loss to Casey Kenney, he will be looking to make an impact. Silva enjoys grappling, but his takedown defense is questionable. Borg is going to wrestle, and if Silva doesn’t stop the first two attempts, he is going to be in for a long night. Once this fight hits the mat with Silva on his back, Borg will either finish, or Silva will stand up, and Borg will plant him over and over again. That’s a pretty easy way to rack up fantasy points. Due to the question marks, however, avoid Borg in cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: I worry a bit about Borg, but he does come with quite a bit of upside. I also favor him in this matchup, so I have no issues here.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Juan Adams
Here we go again. It’s a bit surprising that the UFC is willing to give Greg Hardy this matchup after gifting him Dmitry Smolyakov to get his first UFC win in his last fight. Juan Adams owns a 5-1 professional record, but I believe he won his last fight, which was a decision loss to Arjan Singh Bhullar. I see this fight playing out only one of two ways. Either, Adams lets his emotions get the best of him, and he stands in the middle of the octagon and trades strikes with Hardy hoping for a knockout. If that’s the case, this is truly a 50/50 fight. Or, Adams can utilize his wrestling if he gets in any questionable situations, allowing him to negate the power of Hardy. For that reason, I favor Adams a bit, but I’m not going to be surprised when these two swing until one falls over. Regardless of which side you’re on, this fight is set at -435 to finish inside the distance, and needs to be used in your tournament lineups this weekend.
Jason’s Reaction: Greg Hardy is actually a slight betting favorite via Vegas right now, and while Adams is a legitimate competitor, I think Hardy training at American Top Team for this fight is a massive advantage. It’ll be interesting to see how much better, if at all, he gets.
Jason’s Pick: Klidson Abreu
Sam Alvey is an underrated fighter based on his style, but this Saturday, he gets a bad matchup. As most MMA fans know, Alvey is a pure counter-striker. He rarely attacks first, preferring to wait until his opponent initiates the attack to load up on that counter left hand. Klidson Abreu is going to want to use his Brazilian jiu-jitsu to find a submission. It is nearly impossible to thwart takedown attempts as a pure counter-striker. Alvey is going to be forced out of his element, as he will have to strike first in order to stay off the fence. Abreu also possesses heavy hands, and his win via (T)KO betting prop is set at +414. His submission prop is +325, and his finishing prop is +160. Alvey is a purple belt in BJJ, but he rarely gets to utilize that skill set, and if this fight hits the mat with Alvey on his back, Abreu has a definite advantage. If Abreu was a pure striker, I’d lean Alvey here, but his game plan should be to take down on of the division’s most powerful counter-strikers, and it shouldn’t be too difficult to accomplish if Alvey is going to sit against the fence.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t think Alvey is an overly solid fighter outside of his counter-striking power. Abreu has more ways to win, and he should find a finish. The only concern is that Alvey fights at such a slow pace that Abreu may not score overly high if he doesn’t end it early.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Rafael dos Anjos
This is an extremely interesting fight, and by far my favorite on the card. Leon Edwards has been on a tear since losing to Kamaru Usman in 2015. Since then, he owns a 7-0 record in the UFC with wins over Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Gunnar Nelson. Rafael dos Anjos has found plenty of success since making his welterweight debut, posting a 4-2 record, losing only to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. One of the biggest issues for dos Anjos is that his power hasn’t followed him to 170 lbs, but that isn’t a huge problem because Edwards isn’t a fighter that relies heavily on power either. I believe dos Anjos is the more talented fighter wherever this fight takes place, but the size of Edwards is a major concern. He owns a four-inch reach advantage over dos Anjos, and he’s six inches taller. He’ll also be the larger fighter, as dos Anjos is still relatively small for the welterweight division. Still, the only fighters that have been able to stop dos Anjos have been elite wrestlers, and Edwards isn’t among them. This fight is likely to go to decision, and I believe dos Anjos has more ways to win. I wouldn’t truly count him out of a five-round striking battle, and I expect him to win the grappling exchanges. With his grappling potential, I feel he makes a better option on DraftKings, as well, where he’s priced as an underdog, but has significantly more upside than his opponent.
Jason’s Reaction: I love RDA this Saturday. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Steven Peterson
Steven Peterson will square off this weekend against Alex Caceres, and he will be looking to finally pick up a notable UFC win. Caceres is a great striker, and if this fight stays standing, he likely has the advantage. Peterson, however, has good takedown offense, and Caceres is currently defending takedowns at a 59% clip. Most importantly, Peterson is $7.4K on DraftKings, and his odds have adjusted since pricing was released. Caceres is still the favorite, but only at -115 to Peterson’s +105. Vegas has this fight as a coin flip, but DraftKings has it priced as a clear Caceres advantage. Both fighters have decent finishing odds, as well. Peterson will be owned excessively high in cash games, making him almost a must play. In tournaments, Caceres has a little bit of contrarian upside, but Peterson is still the better of the two.
Justin’s Reaction: I actually like Peterson to win this fight. Good call.
