High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk is one of the highest upside options on this card for his price tag. He won his UFC debut by somewhat of an underwhelming decision, as many were expecting a brutal knockout between him and Khalil Rountree Jr. He has since won his last two fights via first-round (T)KO. Oleksiejczuk gets a difficult matchup against Ovince Saint Pruex, who has been fighting against high-level competition, but owns a 1-3 record over his last 4 fights. Saint Preux has also been finished five times throughout his career. This will essentially be a striker vs grappler matchup, and whoever can take advantage of the positioning should find a finish. I expect Oleksiejczuk to keep this fight standing long enough to find a finish, and he comes with a lot upside. He shouldn’t be used in cash games, but he makes an elite tournament option.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree. Oleksiejczuk is a top tournament option this weekend.
Jason’s Pick: Jack Hermansson
Jack Hermansson is stepping down in competition this weekend to fight Jared Cannonier. Cannonier has plenty of power, and his knockout potential is definitely still a factor in this fight, but Hermansson recently disposed of Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, one of the best fighters in the middleweight division. He is on a four-fight winning streak, and as soon as he finishes this tune-up fight, he should get a title shot. The most likely scenario is that Hermansson finds a way to get this fight to the ground, submitting Cannonier before the final bell rings. He has +160 odds to finish via submission, but he has the power to find a knockout, as well. With -140 odds to finish inside the distance, Hermansson makes for a great high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy option.
Justin’s Reaction: Hermansson makes a great option on this card.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr.
This fight is essentially even in every way possible. Khalil Rountree Jr. and Ion Cutelaba have the same odds to win, the same odds to win via (T)KO, and the same odds to finish this fight. The difference is that Rountree has significantly better odds to win a decision. While I don’t believe it goes the distance, it shows Rountree has the better gas tank between the duo. He looked elite in his last fight against Eryk Anders, flashing his new leg kicks that he has been training in Thailand. Cutelaba is a “no nonsense” fighter that loves pushing the pace significantly faster than his body can handle. Rountree comes with elite power of his own, though, and he has knockout potential from start to finish. He has more ways to win, and I’m siding with the gas tank in this fight, especially since Cutelaba will likely get an ownership boost from the odds value.
Jason’s Reaction: Again, I agree. Rountree Jr. looked like something special in his last fight, and I’m not betting against him until he faces much better competition.
Jason’s Pick: John Phillips
John Phillips is the best tournament option on the card this weekend, as his knockout potential is through the roof. At $8.0K, it will be difficult to avoid Phillips in tournaments, even though he has lost three consecutive UFC fights. If he loses this weekend, it is likely that Dana White finally cuts him, but his powerful hands kept him around for now. Phillips has +170 odds to win inside the distance and +185 odds to win via knockout. He is currently a +125 betting underdog, but Alen Amedovski has shown an impressive ability to leave his chin on the center line. He is a little bit wild in his technique, and Phillips could take advantage. Amedovski lost his first fight in the UFC to Krzysztof Jotko, and while Phillips will be a step down in competition, that doesn’t mean the 31-year-old is ready for such well-rounded striking.
Justin’s Reaction: Phillips is interesting. I don’t trust him at all, but the upside is there.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Nicolas Dalby
Alex Oliveira is the more talented of this duo, but that may not truly matter this weekend. He generally pushes the pace in fights, but similarly to Ion Cutelaba, doesn’t possess the cardio to keep it up for three rounds. That leads to Oliveira gassing quite often if he doesn’t find a finish early in fights. Nicolas Dalby hasn’t found a ton of success in the UFC, but he has never been finished. He also boasts solid cardio, and will be able to push the pace in this fight. If he can weather the early storm from Oliveira, he can potentially turn the tides in this fight later on. Dalby shouldn’t be considered in cash games, but he makes a strong tournament option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Dalby makes a solid option for his price tag.
Jason’s Pick: Danilo Belluardo
This is a really tough recommendation, but Mark Madsen’s Vegas odds are over-inflated right now. He is an Olympic wrestler, and the most likely scenario in this fight is that Belluardo gets taken down and beaten on for three rounds. However, Belluardo has some impressive Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and Madsen has shown sketchy striking in the past. If Belluardo catches Madsen early with a submission attempt, it could scare him away from using his wrestling as frequently as he should, which opens up the possibility of a Belluardo takedown or knockout. Again, this is extremely unlikely, but Belluardo is entirely too cheap when he is fighting someone that has no octagon experience. Granted, Belluardo was hand-picked to lose this fight, but his upside is clear in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I’ll likely be avoiding Belluardo this weekend.
