High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Irene Aldana
I’m simply going with the odds here. Irene Aldana is far and away the largest favorite on this slate, as she is currently a -605 betting favorite over Vanessa Melo. The latter will be making her UFC debut this weekend. She has beaten less-than-stellar competition throughout her career, while also losing to questionable opponents. Simply put, she isn’t near the same level as Aldana at this point. The only question is how Aldana will win this fight. She has surprising finishing potential, as he owns 8 finishes in 10 wins. Her only two decision wins came against true UFC-level competition, and I don’t believe Melo is at that level currently. Aldana comes with solid upside regardless of if she finishes or not, but I’m expecting her to find a finish in this matchup.
Jason’s Reaction: This recommendation is boring, but I like it, especially in cash games.
Jason’s Pick: Sijara Eubanks
Sijara Eubanks is worth consideration in tournaments this Saturday against Bethe Correia. Eubanks has plenty of submission potential, as she possesses a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but both of her professional stoppages came via knockout. She has plenty of power in her hands for a flyweight, and her striking comes in bunches. The 36-year-old Correia was recently knocked out via head kick by Holly Holm, as well as submitted via armbar by Irene Aldana. She has only ever lost to solid competition, but this is a bad matchup stylistically for the kickboxer. In her wins, Eubanks tends to score around 90 fantasy points, and she has additional upside if she finds a finish early. Her takedown ability should be on full display, and Vegas currently has her as a -290 betting favorite. Her inside the distance prop bet is set at +185.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Eubanks, and I’m not a fan of Correia. Great recommendation here.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Jeremy Stephens
This seems like a matchup made for Jeremy Stephens, and the odds are a bit surprising. Yair Rodriguez is coming off of a win against The Korean Zombie, but he was losing by a wide margin before finding a ridiculous knockout with one second left in the fight. Prior to that, Rodriguez was manhandled by Frankie Edgar. I’d expect the odds to be in Stephens’ favor if Rodriguez didn’t win his last fight, so one fluke elbow doesn’t change my mind. Stephens is a powerful fighter, who has struggled to win decisions throughout his career. With that being said, he trained on his footwork with Tony Ferguson for this fight, and I’m buying into the hype of it. His pressuring style is what Rodriguez struggles with, as he needs space to operate his offense. The most likely scenario is Stephens coming away with an impressive knockout, and getting him at an underdog price is elite on this card.
Jason’s Reaction: I completely agree. Jeremy Stephens should be in almost every tournament lineup this weekend.
Jason’s Pick: Martin Bravo
This recommendation is more for cash games, but Martin Bravo is also worth consideration in tournaments, especially considering a win at $8.1K almost always hits value. Bravo is the hometown favorite, born in and fighting out of Mexico. He squares off against Steven Peterson, who recently lost to both Alex Caceres and Luis Pena. Bravo also lost to Caceres, but it was a split decision and the Fight of the Night. Losing at 24 years old is different than losing at 28 years old. Bravo should continue to improve at a more rapid rate than Peterson, and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu could come into play this weekend. Bravo scored 54 fantasy points in a loss against Caceres, and in his last win, he scored over 100. The upside is there, despite the low Vegas odds to finish inside the distance. If this fight goes to decision, Peterson better hope he dominated because the judges will be in Bravo’s favor.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t mind either side of this fight, but I side slightly with Bravo, as well. Another good recommendation here.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Marco Polo Reyes
Marco Polo Reyes looked outstanding early in his UFC career, but he has struggled a bit in more recent fights. He is an aggressive fighter that utilizes a knockout-or-be-knocked-out fighting style. Six of his seven UFC fights have ended in knockout. Kyle Nelson hasn’t found success since joining the promotion, going 0-2 against solid competition. He has flashed some power throughout his career, though, and I expect this fight to be a brawl until someone is unconscious. That makes Polo Reyes a live dog, and this fight is essentially 50/50. Polo Reyes owns a relatively low price tag, and he’s an elite option in tournaments on this slate. If you aren’t rostering Polo Reyes, I’d suggest rostering Nelson in tournaments instead. Both of these options have first-round knockout potential.
Jason’s Reaction: This is definitely a fight that fantasy owners are going to want to have a stake in. Reyes is the better bet due to his lower price tag, giving him more upside in tournaments, but if everyone thinks like that, Nelson could go under-owned. This truly is a toss-up fight.
Jason’s Pick: Tyson Nam
This is an extremely risky recommendation, and Tyson Nam should only be rostered in large tournament formats. That said, he has great knockout potential. According to Vegas, Nam has a 9% chance to finish the fight, but only a 5% chance to win via decision. In his last four wins, he has three knockouts, and his punching power will be his only chance at success this weekend. Sergio Pettis is an extremely talented striker, but power is not something he is known for. Nam will be able to walk through his punches, attempting to land power shots. Unfortunately, it is most likely that Pettis dodges and counters those attempts, but the possibility remains. At $6.9K Nam opens up a lot of salary space, and his upside is almost unparalleled.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t love Nam, but for his price tag, I understand it.
