High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Justin Gaethje
This fight possesses fight of the year potential. As is the case with most Justin Gaethje fights, these two are going to throw until someone is knocked out. Donald Cerrone has a submission grappling advantage on paper, but Gaethje has the wrestling to keep this fight standing, which is always the case. I don’t expect Cerrone to use much grappling in this fight, though, as his title hopes were thrown away when he lost to Tony Ferguson, and he’s likely looking to put on a show for the fans (while trying to win) at this point. I believe Gaethje will walk out of another main event with a victory, but both of these fighters can be considered on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: It is impossible to avoid Gaethje this weekend.
Jason’s Pick: Louis Smolka
Louis Smolka has been on quite a roller coaster since entering the UFC back in 2014. After losing to Matheus Nicolau in 2017, he briefly left the UFC. In November of 2018, he returned at bantamweight, defeating Su Mudaerji in China. Smolka has great wrestling, and submission offense, and this week, he gets what should be an easy matchup against Ryan MacDonald. However, hardened MMA fans know that there is no such thing as an easy matchup for Smolka. He finds ways to lose. Due to that, roster him in tournaments only. He has 100-point fantasy upside this weekend, especially against MacDonald, a well-rounded fighter that does everything decent, but nothing great. Smolka should be able to secure takedowns with his wrestling and judo, and he has +150 odds to finish inside the distance.
Justin’s Reaction: I will never trust Smolka again, but his upside is undeniable. I love this call.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Jimmy Crute
I have backed Jimmy Crute in each of his first two UFC fights, and he has rewarded me with a total of 203 fantasy points. He has flashed a bit of everything, submitting the submission specialist Paul Craig, before knocking out the knockout artist Sam Alvey in his last fight. Crute is a well-rounded fighter, although his power will be his clear advantage in this fight. His opponent, Misha Cirkunov, is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and was once a top prospect in the UFC. He started his UFC career with a 4-0 record, although he has now lost three of his last four fights via knockout. Crute is the underdog, but priced as the favorite, meaning we could get low ownership, adding to his tournament value. He’s one of the top GPP plays on this card.
Jason’s Reaction: Crute has the highest upside on the card. This is a great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Jordan Griffin
Jordan Griffin entered the UFC with a win over Maurice Mitchell on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He has great submission offense, and training out of Roufusport in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, his wrestling is solid. He most recently lost a unanimous decision to Dan Ige, scoring only 33 fantasy points in the loss. This weekend, he squares off against Chas Skelly, a wrestler on a two-fight losing streak. Skelly lost to both Jason Knight and Bobby Moffett via finish. Griffin is a bad matchup for Skelly stylistically, as he can find submissions from the bottom position, and he doesn’t mind grappling. He has +155 odds to finish inside the distance, and Griffin is currently a -145 betting favorite. The upside is present, and his price tag is very reasonable.
Justin’s Reaction: This line is closing toward Skelly, which is worrisome, but I do like this play. I’m strictly using Griffin in tournaments, though.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Uriah Hall
Uriah Hall is somewhat of a wildcard, but sometimes you need that to win tournaments. This fight is extremely simple. Hall will have a decisive advantage in the striking, while Antonio Carlos Junior will have a significant grappling advantage. Hall has never been submitted in his MMA career, though. He has displayed a questionable chin, but Carlos Junior has never won an MMA fight via knockout. One of Carlos Junior’s three losses came via knockout to Dan Kelly, who doesn’t possess near the knockout power of Hall. This line is likely so wide because of Hall’s 2-4 record over his last six fights, but he has only lost to high-level competition. The most likely outcome is for Carlos Junior to win via submission, but it would be unwise to ignore the potential upside Hall can bring to a fantasy team.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m passing here. Antonio Carlos Junior is going to ground Hall and finish this fight.
Jason’s Pick: Donald Cerrone
Donald Cerrone is headlining this Saturday’s card, as he will look to put on a fireworks display with Justin Gaethje. Gaethje is very aggressive, and sometimes, that strategy works to his detriment. Most MMA fans are well aware of Cerrone’s impressive Brazilian jiu-jitsu ground game, but Gaethje has great wrestling, and this fight is going to play out on the feet. Ultimately, Gaethje should pressure Cerrone into submission, knocking him out before the fourth or fifth round, but Cerrone has a puncher’s (or kicker’s) chance. He should score well, even in a loss, as Gaethje tends to get hit quite frequently. In cash games, this fight is a must-stack. In tournaments, it should be split at around 70 percent in favor of Gaethje. This upcoming card has so much volatility baked into it that rostering a solo lineup is almost a waste of money. As an added bonus, Cerrone’s odds to win have increased since DraftKings released their salaries, so he definitely has value for his price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I will be using Gaethje (see above), but if he isn’t in a lineup, Cerrone has to be. This is a fight that you need one of the two sides in 100% of lineups.
