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Fantasy MMA Leverage and Fighter Details
High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Vicente Luque
The allure of Mike Perry is broken. He has lost three of his last five fights. He does own wins over Paul Felder and Alex Oliveira, but Felder broke his arm in the first round of their fight, and Perry still only won via split decision. Vincente Luque, on the other hand, looks like a future title contender, as he owns a 9-1 record over his last 10 fights, losing only to Leon Edwards. Overall, Luque should have the advantage regardless of where this fight takes place, and Perry essentially brings a puncher’s chance into this fight. Luque has been baited into brawls in the past, but even if that happens, I favor his skill set significantly more than Perry’s. Luque is also averaging 112.8 fantasy points per fight over his last 9 wins in fantasy MMA. He recently scored 145 fantasy points against Bryan Barberena. Luque has the potential to be the leading scorer on this card, and he comes significantly cheaper than some of the other favorites.
Jason’s Reaction: Luque makes a lot of sense in tournaments, but so does Perry. Perry is extremely cheap, and his odds to finish this fight inside distance are actually great considering he is a significant underdog.
Jason’s Pick: Ciryl Gane
Ciryl Gane will not lose this fight. Besides Valentina Shevchenko, Gane is the most reliable recommendation on this Saturday’s card, but he also comes with massive upside due to his fighting style. The up-and-coming heavyweight is a Muay Thai practitioner with devastating clinch work. While he is only 3-0 professionally in the fantasy MMA world, he is also 12-0 professionally in the Muay Thai world. His three wins come over opponents with a combined record of 16-2. Raphael Pessoa, on the other hand, has only defeated two opponents in his professional career with winning records. His power is undebatable, but his only true path to victory this weekend is a takedown. Gane has yet to be tested in the wrestling department, but Pessoa will have to come into clinch range in order to utilize that game plan. Gane is much more talented at striking, and he should find a finish in the first round. He is the biggest betting favorite to win inside the distance at -295, and despite his high price tag, he is worth the salary in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: Gane should have no problems in this fight. The UFC essentially gifted him a fight, and that’s something we can take advantage of.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Luiz Eduardo Garagorri
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri is far from a great fighter, and he’s likely only on this card because he’s a hometown finisher. With that being said, he gets a plus matchup against Humberto Bandenay, who could be out of the UFC with his next loss. Garagorri is a known finisher, recording four (T)KOs and six submission throughout his career. Bandenay has also been finished multiple times in his career, mainly by submission. While I don’t think this pick is anywhere near a lock, it seems as if the UFC is somewhat setting Garagorri up for a finish in front of the Uruguay crowd. He currently owns a +128 inside the distance prop, making him an elite tournament option for only $8.4K. Keep in mind, if you’re running multiple lineups, Bandenay ($7.8K) can also be used, as he owns a +211 inside the distance prop. Still, I’m siding with the hometown fighter against a guy who has proven he can’t beat UFC-level competition.
Jason’s Reaction: Garagorri is the best tournament option on the slate this weekend. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Volkan Oezdemir
Volkan Oezdemir picked up wins over Ovince Saint Preux, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa before losing three straight fights to Daniel Cormier, Anthony Smith, and Dominick Reyes. Ilir Latifi, on the other hand, has been unable to garner momentum, losing every time he wins a couple fights in a row. Both fighters are desperate for a victory, and Oezdemir is the slight betting favorite. He has +140 odds to finish inside the distance, and for fantasy MMA, his price tag on DraftKings is reasonable. Latifi will attempt to use his wrestling to slow the pace of the striking matchup, but ultimately, this fight should take place on the feet. Both fighters are known for their cardio and punching power, so quick fantasy point accumulation is possible, and the judge’s scorecards are not likely to be used. Oezdemir should be able to keep range and utilize his kickboxing and counter-striking to find a finish in the later rounds.
Justin’s Reaction: I keep going back and forth on this fight. I do think Oezdemir likely wins, but could we see another boring decision? I’m not sure. There are other options I like, but I also don’t hate this recommendation.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Veronica Macedo
There are multiple underdogs I’m interested in on this card, but it would be insane if I didn’t mention Veronica Mecado here. She’s only $7.6K on this slate, but currently owns -125 odds to win this fight, and that number could continue to climb. She has lost each of her first three UFC fights, but gained valuable experience against some of the top women in the UFC. In other words, her losses against Ashlee Evans-Smith, Andrea Lee, and Gillian Robertson aren’t concerning at this point. She’ll see a step down in competition against Polyana Viana, who owns a 1-2 record in the UFC. Viana is known as a finisher, losing each of her three decisions in her career. I expect this fight to go the distance, and Macedo should be able to out-point her on the judge’s scorecard. Keep in mind, Macedo is far from a high-level fighter, but the clear odds value makes her an elite cash game play.
Jason’s Reaction: The odds value here is just too much. Roster Macedo in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Raulian Paiva
Much like Veronica Macedo, Raulian Paiva has built-in odds value based on his DraftKings’ price tag. He is $8.0K, but is currently the -120 betting favorite. It is unlikely that this fight finishes, so Paiva will have three rounds to work, and he makes for a great cash game option because of that. Both fighters have solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which should neutralize the ground attacks. If this fight stays standing, flyweights score plenty of fantasy points on significant strikes due to the pace of the action. If it does end up being a grappling contest, both fighters should score on takedowns, reversals, and advances. Either way, Paiva has a good chance to hit value.
Justin’s Reaction: I was hoping for something more up in the air here, but I agree. Again, here are the odds value. As a bonus, two more underdogs I’m considering are Gilbert Burns and Bobby Moffett.
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