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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Devonte Smith
This is the safest and easiest pick on the entire card. Khama Worthy takes a fight against Devonte Smith on short notice, and they are, simply put, on two different levels. This fight will play out on the feet, and Smith will be far too fast and powerful for his opponent. Worthy has been knocked out five times in his career, suggesting his chin is unlikely to hold up against a fighter with the power that Smith has. The UFC is feeding Smith an easy opponent to get another highlight reel knockout on his resume. This fight will likely end in the first round, and you can take your 100 fantasy points and move on.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree wholeheartedly. Roster Smith, and move on.
Jason’s Pick: Kyung Ho Kang
Brandon Davis is a very fun fighter to watch perform, and he does have a couple of wins in the UFC, including a victory over Austin Arnett on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Subsequently, he defeated Steven Peterson and Randy Costa, but lost to Kyle Bochniak, Enrique Barzola, and Zabit Magomedsharipov. Kyung Ho Kang is another exciting fighter, and he has four wins in the UFC against Shunichi Shimizu, Michinori Tanaka, Guido Cannetti, and Teruto Ishihara. He lost to Chico Camus and Ricardo Ramos. Kang is a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his submission offense is very impressive. Davis has a purple belt in BJJ under Alan Belcher and a brown belt in Muay Thai. Kang tends to be the more aggressive striker, but Davis is going to answer. Unfortunately for Davis, Kang has an indestructible chin, and if this turns into a firefight, it should benefit the 31-year-old from South Korea. The odds are currently -190 in favor of Kang, and his inside the distance prop is set at +197. This should be an uptempo fight with scoring coming via both grappling and striking, giving Kang a huge ceiling for his price tag. It isn’t a sure bet like Smith, but the upside is greater.
Justin’s Reaction: I really like this call. The upside is there, and his price tag isn’t out of this work.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Yoel Romero
The oddsmakers are giving Paulo Costa far too much respect in this fight. Yoel Romero is certainly an aging fighter, but nothing in his career has suggested that it will slow him down. He has lost two fights since 2011, both five-round decisions to Robert Whittaker. There are some that would argue Romero won the second fight. Outside of those loses, he has consistently defeated fighters at the top of the division, while Costa owns a 4-0 UFC record against much lesser competition. Romero has the striking to keep this fight interesting on the feet, but he has the wrestling to dictate where this fight takes place, if he finds himself in trouble. There have also been pictures going around of Costa in his training camp looking significantly smaller than only a year ago. I’m going to wait until weigh-ins to completely lock Romero in as a must play, but it seems as if the oddsmakers are projecting Costa’s future rather than his current talent.
Jason’s Reaction: Romero is the better fighter by a significant margin. Costa has a great future ahead of him, but he shouldn’t win this weekend. The only concern is that Romero tends to score rather low in decision wins. Even so, he is a great play.
Jason’s Pick: Anthony Pettis
Nate Diaz is not a good fighter. Nate Diaz is a fun fighter to watch perform, but Nate Diaz is not a good fighter. Say it with me: Nate Diaz is not a good fighter. His best asset is his Brazilian jiu-jitsu, as he owns a second-degree black belt under Cesar Gracie, but he barely utilizes it. Anthony Pettis, on the other hand, is very well-rounded, but he tends to give up in challenging fights. The only concern here is that Pettis does not respond well to pressure, but he should be able to use his third-degree black belt in Taekwondo to keep distance, as well as his black belt in BJJ under Daniel Wanderley, if the fight ends up on the ground. If this fight goes to decision, Pettis wins. Diaz gets hit far too often on the feet to win on the judge’s scorecard. He will look to pressure as much as possible, but as long as Pettis fights smart, he should walk away victorious. This fight has a ton of upside because Diaz throws caution to the wind within the first couple of minutes in the first round. A finish is possible for Pettis, but Diaz is very durable, so don’t count on it. At $8.3K on DraftKings, he doesn’t need the finish to hit value.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree here. Pettis is the significantly better fighter, but tends to quit in fights. If he doesn’t, he should win.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Stipe Miocic
If you know me, you knew this pick was coming. I bet on Stipe Miocic in their first matchup as the favorite, and I’m surely going to do so again with him as an underdog. In his first matchup against Daniel Cormier, he was knocked out in the first round. That happens at times with heavyweights, but I still believe Miocic is the best in the world in that division. He’ll have a massive reach advantage once again, and I expect him to utilize it better this time around. Miocic also has the footwork to use that reach at a high level. While I’m not quite as confident in him this time around, I do believe his work rate, footwork, and length could spell trouble for Cormier. Miocic has proven that he can score 100+ fantasy points in a decision, and I’m willing to take that for a $7.7K price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I do know you. I did know this pick was coming. Miocic was the favorite in the first fight, and the odds should not have changed so dramatically because of a one-fight sample size, especially since that fight ended in a first-round knockout.
Jason’s Pick: Christos Giagos
Christos Giagos has two consecutive victories in the UFC. He defeated Mizuto Hirota in 2018 and Damir Hadzovic only a couple of months ago. This weekend, he squares off against Drakkar Klose, who is also on a two-fight win streak. He defeated Lando Vannata and Bobby Green in 2018. Both fighters have impressive wrestling credentials, and it is likely that this fight stays standing. Giagos is an aggressive striker, and he could pose problems for Klose, who enjoys out-pointing his opponents in a methodical way. It is unlikely that Giagos wins this fight, but he is very cheap, and he should have three rounds to work. It makes sense to roster him in cash games in order to afford a fighter like Devonte Smith. As an added bonus, Klose throws so few strikes that he could lose a close decision on the judge’s scorecards, especially if the fans start to get antsy.
Justin’s Reaction: I hate Klose, so I’m good with this recommendation. At worst, you’re likely to get three rounds for a low price tag.
