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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Max Holloway
This fight is relatively simple to me. I don’t expect Frankie Edgar to be able to get Max Holloway to the ground, and I expect Holloway to relatively easily outstrike him for as long as this fight lasts. Edgar comes with knockout power, but I’m not overly worried after watching Dustin Poirier unload on Holloway for five rounds in 155 lbs. Holloway is back down to “his” division (145 lbs), and I expect him to pick up where he left off. This recommendation isn’t purely about how much better I believe Holloway is than Edgar, though. This is strictly about the volume Holloway throws. He has scored 115+ in each of his last four wins, including a 190 fantasy point performance against Brian Ortega. He also scored 91 fantasy points in a loss to Poirier. There’s simply no reason to avoid him in this especially, especially since this fight is expected to finish inside the distance.
Jason’s Reaction: Max Holloway is the top option on DraftKings every single time he steps into the octagon. This is the obvious recommendation, but the one that needs to be made.
Jason’s Pick: Hakeem Dawodu
This fight is a little more risky than most people want to think. Hakeem Dawodu has been very dominant since his only professional loss to Danny Henry, but Yoshinori Horie is not a complete walk-in-the-park. The 24-year-old from Nagasaki, Japan has been fighting stiff competition in Pancrase, and he is not afraid to stand in the pocket and trade shots. If Dawodu decides to turn this contest into a firefight, he could be in trouble. Both fighters are primarily strikers with decent takedown offense, but Dawodu is much more technical. If he sticks to the game plan, striking from range, and using combinations, he should easily pick up a decision victory, if not find a knockout in the later rounds. His finishing odds are currently +105, and this fight should feature a rather active pace, making Dawodu well worth his high price tag on DraftKings. Neither fighter is going to be scared to exchange, so the upside in this fight is astronomical.
Justin’s Reaction: I am a big fan of Dawodu on this card, but I favor both fighters priced above him a bit more than him.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Alexandre Pantoja
I’m not overly confident in either side of this fight, but both fighters have finishing potential, and I believe this is a fight you should be targeting in GPPs. Alexandre Pantoja has looked outstanding in the UFC, compiling a 5-1 recording, including a recent knockout over Wilson Reis. Deiveson Figueiredo has also found plenty of success in the UFC, posting a 4-1 record overall. Once Figueiredo saw a step up in competition, though, he lost more or less with ease, though. Pantoja has more ways to win this fight, as he has a solid striking background with the advantage in the grappling department. If it stays standing, I would give a small edge to Figueiredo, which makes Pantoja that much more important on DraftKings. He will be going for takedowns, and we know grappling is rewarded handsomely in fantasy MMA. For that reason, I’m siding with Pantoja here.
Jason’s Reaction: Pantoja has great finishing potential, and his price tag is cheap. The mid-priced fighters this weekend will be the key to success. Nice recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Kyle Stewart
Kyle Stewart, the 30-year-old UFC newcomer, is looking to avenge his most recent loss to Chance Rencountre by picking up his first UFC win at the expense of Erik Koch’s record. Koch, on the other hand, is looking to stop a two-fight losing skid. Also 30 years old, Koch has been fighting in the UFC longer than Stewart has been fighting professionally at any level. The former will have an advantage in the grappling department with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and his black belt in taekwondo should be of use, as well. However, Koch is moving up a weight class. Stewart will enter the fight much bigger than his opponent, and he has only ever struggled when he has not defended the takedown. Koch, who used to fight at featherweight back in 2013, is moving all the way up to welterweight. This weight class does not bode well for his body frame, and Stewart should be able to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking. He has been training with fighters like Jared Cannioner, and he will be prepared to find that elusive first UFC victory. As an added bonus, his finishing odds are actually rather decent at +225, making him a great mid-priced option on DraftKings.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t trust Stewart in any way, shape, or form. With that being said, great recommendation. He’s a strong play for him price tag, but if you’re running multiple lineups, you should be sprinkling Koch in, as well.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Alexis Davis
This is a fight that is oozing recency bias. Do I believe Alexis Davis is a great fighter? No. But she’s coming off of two losses, which were against two rising stars in this division – Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Chookagian. On the other side, Viviane Araujo is coming off of an impressive UFC debut against Talita Bernardo. Bernardo is far from great competition, though, and Araujo entered that fight as a +210 underdog. This will be a step up in competition for Araujo, while it’s a step down in competition for Davis. While I don’t necessarily believe Davis needs to be the favorite in this fight, I think the line should be significantly closer than it is. That gives odds value to Davis, who makes a solid option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: This is a good cash game recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Sarah Frota
Sarah Frota is worth her price tag and more on DraftKings this week. Regardless of how this fight plays out, Frota is the correct recommendation. Gillian Robertson is a mid-level grappler and submission specialist, as is Frota. Both fighters are going to want this fight to take place on the ground, and UFC fans should be in for a treat with all the reversals and submission attempts. Generally speaking, submission offense does not score well on DraftKings. However, when both fighters are actively pursuing submissions, takedowns, advances, and reversals will add up. Robertson has +173 finishing odds, making her a decent tournament option, but Frota is +229 to win inside the distance, and her price tag is much lower. This fight is basically a coin flip, and if DraftKings wants to give fantasy owners a 60/40 split on tails, pick tails.
Justin’s Reaction: I actually give Robertson a relatively large grappling advantage, while I believe Frota will want to keep this fight standing with her striking. I agree it’s a fight to attack, but I favor Robertson. With that being said, there are odds value here.
