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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ben Askren
This is one of the most interesting fights on the card. In my opinion, this should be a relatively easy win for Ben Askren. That isn’t, seemingly, how the public sees it, though. Jorge Masivdal has been a popular underdog (in the daily fantasy community) this week, and that may be because of his knockout potential. Askren is an elite wrestler, though, and I see little to no reason that he won’t be able to get this fight to the ground early. We know that matchups make fights, and Masvidal was recently taken down multiple times by Demian Maia. Without many solid underdogs on this slate, Askren could go a bit under-owned because of fantasy players moving to the upside of Masvidal. I expect Askren to land multiple takedowns in route to a likely decision victory, although I’m not ruling out a finish. For only an $8.7K price tag, Askren makes an elite option because of his need to grapple and wrestling upside.
Jason’s Reaction: I completely agree here. Askren is one of my top options, especially in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan, despite his very high price tag on DraftKings, has built in odds value. He opened as a -380 betting favorite prior to moving to -650 yesterday. He is back to -570 after weigh-ins, but he is still one of the safest fighters on the card. As far as cash games are concerned, Shahbazyan is the play. In a decision victory over Darren Stewart, he scored 90 fantasy points, and after that, he posted over 100 fantasy points in a first-round knockout. Jack Marshman offers very little resistance, and a finish is likely for Shahbazyan. He has -134 odds to do just that. Marlon Vera is a little bit more risky, and fighters like Amanda Nunes, Michael Chiesa, Ismail Naurdiev, and Arnold Allen are just not all that enticing. Jon Jones also makes sense here, but he will likely use his range on his way to a 80-90 fantasy point performance. That leaves Shahbazyan as the top fighter priced over $9.0K this weekend.
Justin’s Reaction: Shahbazyan should relatively easily beat Marshman. If I’m paying up, I have no problems using him.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Luke Rockhold
Luke Rockhold will be making his light heavyweight debut against Jan Blachowicz this weekend. The biggest issue I had early in the week with this fight was the size of Rockhold, but after seeing him at weigh-ins, I’m all in. He’s better than Blachowicz essentially everywhere. The only advantage I may give to Blachowicz is punching power, and Rockhold’s chin has failed him before. Without depleting himself to make middleweight prior to the fight, I’m not sure that’s a major issue, though. Both fighters are black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but I favor Rockhold’s top game and grappling more than Blachowicz. I expect this fight to stay standing for the most part, though, and I favor Rockhold’s striking by a wide margin. Outside of his chin failing him, this is Rockhold’s fight to lose. I never want to take a fighter based on a puncher’s chance, and we’ve seen Rockhold score 100+ fantasy points in wins before. He also has odds value on his side, as he’s the cheapest favorite, but is currently a -225 betting favorite.
Jason’s Reaction: Again, I completely agree. Rockhold has the highest upside of any fighter on the card this Saturday (on a point-per-dollar basis with realistic win expectations).
Jason’s Pick: Song Yadong
Song Yadong has massive upside this weekend against Alejandro Perez, but he also comes with quite a bit of value in cash games. As a +207 betting underdog to win inside of distance, the potential for a finish is definitely there, but Perez is a massive +900 betting underdog to win inside of distance, so Yadong will get all three rounds to work. This fight should stay standing, and he has great sanda, giving him an edge in striking. While Perez does have the chance to be the more active fighter and out-point Song on his way to a decision victory, it is unlikely. The most likely scenario is a Song decision victory, and the second most likely scenario is a Song knockout.
Justin’s Reaction: Yadong is relatively cheap, and can score a ton of fantasy points. I like him for a mid-level price tag.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Diego Sanchez
Diego Sanchez is absolutely crazy at this point, and I’m here for it. He has changed camps (if that’s what you want to call it). Sanchez has a questionable (at best) chin, which is my biggest concern in this fight. He has won fights that he has been the underdog in because of his ability to control the grappling. He’s a black belt in gaidojutsu and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while his opponent, Michael Chiesa, is a purple belt in BJJ. I expect Chiesa to try to keep this fight standing, and one thing sticks out via Vegas: Chiesa is currently a -195 favorite to win via (T)KO, but he has yet to record a knockout in his professional career. If Sanchez can control the grappling, he could score fantasy points on the feet. I don’t necessarily feel he has a great shot at winning this fight, but the odds are a bit wide. He’s the only underdog I truly feel has a decent shot at winning, and I’ll take a shot on him for his price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I am all over Sanchez this weekend. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Randa Markos
This recommendation is based almost exclusively on Vegas money line movement. Claudia Gadelha opened as a -365 favorite over her competition, Randa Markos. Since then, the money line dropped to -240. Markos is only a +200 underdog, and on a card like UFC 239 without many interesting betting underdogs, she makes sense in tournaments. Gadelha has her beat on the ground, sporting a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under both Andre Pederneiras and Jair Lourenco. Markos, on the other hand, has a purple belt in BJJ under Fabio Lima. Fortunately for Markos, she has a significant leg reach advantage, and if she can maintain distance, she can win a striking match. Her wrestling is an underrated part of her game, and staying on her feet will be essential to victory this Saturday. Gadelha will look to get inside on Markos, eventually utilizing her muay thai and wrestling to get her to the mat. There will be a few storms that Markos will have to weather in order to come out on top, but she is definitely a live dog worth consideration.
Justin’s Reaction: I think Gadelha relatively easily wins this fight, but Markos could get three rounds to potentially score fantasy points. There aren’t many solid underdogs, so she’s a decent option.
