High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Macy Chiasson
There are plenty of elite fantasy options on this slate, but there are virtually no safe options outside of Macy Chiasson. She is the most expensive option on the slate at $9.4K, , but she has over twice as strong of adds as the next largest favorite – Nordine Taleb (-335). At the moment, Chiasson is a -800 favorite, and the gap is widening. She also owns +110 odds to finish this fight in the first round, which is the most likely scenario. She’s a well-rounded fighter, who owns one technical knockout, two submissions, and one decision victory in her career. Chiasson will fight Sarah Moras, who has struggled in the UFC, although she has fought relatively high-end talent on the roster. With that being said, this fight has one major difference. Chiasson won The Ultimate Fighter at featherweight, while Moras hasn’t known for being a “big” bantamweight. Moras isn’t a great talent, and the only edge she has in this fight is experience. Still, Chiasson will see a significant size advantage, and she should be able to control this fight. If that’s the case, she has multiple ways to win, and she should find it early in this fight.
Jason’s Reaction: If I’m going to spend up this weekend, which I probably will not, Chiasson will be the person I spend on.
Jason’s Pick: Andrew Sanchez
The high-priced options for this weekend’s UFC card are quite similar and uninteresting. This week, look toward the middle-priced and low-priced options to provide the value that one needs to take down tournaments. Andrew Sanchez makes for a great option in tournaments due to his wrestling ability. He has scored over 60 fantasy points in five consecutive fights now, and he lost two of those. He is a rather large favorite this weekend against Marc-Andre Barriault, which most likely has to do with the level of competition Sanchez has been fighting compared to that of Barriault. The style match-up also favors Sanchez. Barriault will be looking for a knockout, which is something that Sanchez has fell victim to in the past, but Sanchez should be able to use his takedown offense to neutralize Barriault’s power. He is a very active fighter with almost five significant strikes per minute and three takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has decent finishing potential. The obvious downside is that Sanchez has a questionable chin, but the upside is far too great to pass on him at his price tag this Saturday.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t trust Sanchez whatsoever because of his cardio. I lean him on DraftKings because of the upside, but he didn’t look to wrestle in his last fight, and I’m worried that he won’t wrestle because of his cardio once again. The upside is undeniable.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Juan Adams
This fight owns a line that I simply don’t understand. Juan Adams hasn’t fought high-end talent by any means throughout his career, but I also don’t believe Arjan Bhullar is a high-end talent. Adams owns five career knockouts with four coming in the first round. He’s a fighter that has heavy hands and a wrestling background to keep the fight standing. While I don’t necessarily expect Adams to be able to get this fight to the ground, I feel high wrestling experience should be enough to somewhat neutralize Bhullar’s wrestling. In a stand-up fight, there’s very little reason to side with Bhullar, who comes with significantly less power on the feet. There are concerns with Adams’ gas tank, but I don’t expect this fight to be competitive enough for that to truly matter. Furthermore, Adams has already stated that he comfortably walks around 285 lbs, while Bhullar has consistently weighed in well under the 265 lbs limit. The extra weight should play a massive role in power, specifically in the wrestling and striking matchups. As if that isn’t enough reason to lean Adams, he also features nearly a six inch reach advantage. Not only do I expect Adams to win this fight in a relatively easy manner, I expect him to find a finish, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m not nearly as confident in a Juan Adams’ win as Justin is. I like the upside in tournaments, but forget about cash.
Jason’s Pick: Elias Theodorou
This fight is dead even according to Vegas, and that seems right. Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory, as does Elias Theodorou. It seems counterintuitive to roster a fighter that is relying heavily on a decision to pick up a win, but at his price tag, it will be worth it in tournaments. Most fantasy owners are going to be backing Brunson for his upside, but Theodorou is extremely good at neutralizing power shots. In 18 professional fights, he has never been finished. Brunson will rely heavily on his finishing potential to pick up a win, as he can probably not out-strike Theodorou for three rounds. Brunson has only ever lost to elite-level competition (excluding that horrible decision loss to Anderson Silva, which he actually won), and he finishes those who are not brutally early in fights, but Theodorou deserves that number next to his name. He is not flashy, but he has very solid fundamentals, and he is very intelligent inside the octagon. Despite being labelled a ‘boring’ fighter, he is actually rather active at over four significant strikes per minute. He has performed well from a fantasy perspective in decision victories prior, and if Brunson pressures too much, Theodorou could capitalize on his hastiness. A win for a fighter sub $8.2K is always value.
Justin’s Reaction: I want basically nothing to do with Theodorou this weekend. The only time he flashes any upside whatsoever is when he can wrestle, and that won’t be the case this weekend. Getting a win for less than $8.1K is nice, but there’s far too much risk involved, and I’d be willing to bet plenty of money that Theodorou won’t be on the optimal lineup.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Donald Cerrone
Donald Cerrone is the clear value option on this slate, as he’s $600 cheaper than Al Iaquinta, but is only a -105 underdog. Iaquinta is coming off of an impressive win over Kevin Lee, and his only loss since early 2014 was against Khabib Nurmagomedov on short notice. Donald Cerrone owns two impressive wins since his child was born, but he was on a bit of a skid before that. With that being said, he returned to lightweight in his last fight, and he owns a 9-1 record over his last 10 lightweight fights, losing only to Rafael dos Anjos for the championship. Cerrone is a fighter that has a “take on anyone at anytime” mentality, and his only losses at lightweight have come to elite-level competition. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Gaidojutsu, while Iaquinta owns a purple belt in BJJ. Cerrone is a bit more reckless with his striking, but he could field the advantage, as he owns a three inch reach advantage over Iaquinta. Cerrone should have an edge if this fight hits the mat, and his versatility makes him the more appealing option. His output has also allowed him to consistently score 100+ fantasy points in wins, while coming with significantly more upside than Iaquinta. Cowboy gets the nod for his lower price tag this weekend.
Jason’s Reaction: I avoided recommending Al Iaquinta because of this recommendation, but I will not support it. Iaquinta wins this fight, and he is cheap enough to roster, despite being priced as a favorite. Roster Cerrone in cash games for the odds value, but not tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Cole Smith
Cole Smith will make his UFC debut this weekend against Mitch Gagnon, in what should be a rather back-and-forth bout. Gagnon has been tested in the UFC on multiple occasions, as he currently holds a 4-3 record. This will be an important fight for his future. He originally opened as a -140 favorite, which explains his price tag and means that Smith has a ton of odds value headed into Saturday. Vegas currently has this fight around even. Smith will have to neutralize Gagnon’s takedowns. He is not a good fighter off of his back, but he has the tools to stop ametuer submission attempts. Smith has very solid striking, and he trains in Thailand. If he can make this fight dirty, he could definitely win a three-round decision. Neither fighter has great odds to finish, which means Smith should get three rounds of work, which is always good for an underdog. There are not too many great low-priced options on this weekend’s card, so if Smith can pick up a win for cheap, it will be worth it in both cash games and tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no issues with Smith on this slate. I feel he’s probably my third favorite “underdog” on the slate.
