High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk
This is an odd card, where the UFC brings on regional-level competition, making some of these fights extremely easy to predict. There are other fights where nearly anything can happen because of the talent (or lack thereof) involved. I’m not taking the easy route with this fight, and I’m taking Michal Oleksiejczuk, who is best suited for tournaments. He owns a 13-2 record, but has won 11 consecutive fights, although his UFC debut against Khalil Rountree was overturned to a no contest. He’s a striker, who owns nine career (T)KOs, and he gets a matchup against a grappler in Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Antigulov is a Master of Sport in freestyle wrestling, while also practicing sambo and boxing. Essentially, Oleksiejczuk should find another knockout if this fight stays standing, while Antigulov could find a submission if he can get this fight to the ground. Antigulov struggled to get Ion Cutelaba to the ground in his last fight, and I’m expecting similar results here. Oleksiejczuk is the better prospect of the two, and he comes with tremendous upside for a reasonable price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I don’t hate playing Oleksiejczuk in tournaments, but I’ll be leaning the other way in this fight. I actually think that Antigulov in one of the better low-priced tournament options. This is interesting, as it is the first fight card in awhile that we strongly disagree about where to begin lineup construction.
Jason’s Pick: Movsar Evloev
So, that easy route that Justin just mentioned in his Michal Oleksiejczuk recommendation, this is that route. Movsar Evloev is going to win. This is a matchup between a wrestler (Evloev) and a Muay Thai practitioner (Seungwoo Choi). There is a reason that a majority of the UFC champions over the last few years have been wrestlers (more so than any other specialty). Evloev is going to take down Choi, and even if he doesn’t finish him, he should pick up plenty of fantasy points with ground-and-pound, as well as advances and additional takedowns. The upside in this fight is tremendous, and Evloev is not even close to the most expensive option on the board. Save a couple hundred dollars by skipping Islam Makhachev and rostering Evloev.
Justin’s Reaction: Evloev is extremely safe, but also comes with elite upside this weekend. He’s probably my second favorite tournament option and favorite cash option on this card.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Alexander Yakolev
This is a fight where it should come down to experience. Alexander Yakolev has fights against Zak Cummings, Kamaru Usman, Demian Maia, Paul Daley, and Rashid Magomedov. While he lost all but one of those fights, the high-level experience gives him a significant edge over Alex da Silva, who has his record padded by easy wins. Yakolev has strong credentials entering this fight, as well, as he’s currently a Master of Sport in hand-to-hand combat, sport and combat sambo, and freestyle wrestling. He’s also a versatile fighter, who should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. I’m not truly overly confident in Yakolev, but his price tag on DraftKings doesn’t truly represent his current odds. Also, I’ve consistently avoided fighters who have padded records, and while da Silva’s isn’t as bad as some, he fits the bill. Yakolev is cheap enough that he likely can hit value in a decision, but he does come with decent finishing potential, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: Attacking the mid-priced options this week is a good move, especially the wrestlers. Yakolev does have tremendous upside for his price tag, and while he could lose, he is the better tournament option between da Silva and himself. I can get behind this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Alistair Overeem
Wait, his price is what? Well, I’m sorry, okay! It would just be a shame if someone didn’t mention the star of the this event. Alistair Overeem should pick up the victory this Saturday against Aleksei Oleinik, as he is too experienced and, just flat out, big to be taken down. If this fight stays standing, Overeem wins via (T)KO. He has a 64% chance to finish this fight inside distance, and a 61% chance to win via (T)KO via Vegas. The one downfall of his career has been his inability to defend strikes. He gets hit far too often at 4.79 times per minute. In the heavyweight division, that will end in destruction. Luckily, Oleinik has little to no power, and his attempted strikes per minute are low. He does his best work on the ground. This is a great matchup for Overeem, and his price tag is rather low for his potential upside. No, he is not a mid-priced option, but he sure is close.
Justin’s Reaction: This isn’t mid-priced, but I’m glad someone mentioned it. I absolutely love Oleinik, but I don’t particularly see a way he wins this fight. Overeem finishes this fight early.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Rafael Fiziev
As I mentioned above, this is a volatile card, and the lack of high-level talent creates odds value in cash games. Rafael Fiziev opened as a +140 underdog, but he’s now a -125 favorite. His price tag represents his odds as an underdog, as he’s $800 cheaper than Magomed Mustafaev. Fiziev is an accomplished Muay Thai practitioner, recording five of his six wins by (T)KO. He’s a versatile striker, as well, finding finishes via flying knee, punches, knees, head kick, and body kick. He should have the advantage over Mustafaev on the feet, while the latter will have an edge if this fight goes to the mat. I expect this fight to play out mostly on the feet, though, and while both fighters are dangerous, I side with Fiziev, especially for his price. At this point, he’ll make a lock in cash games, while both fighters are high end tournament options for their prices.
Jason’s Reaction: The odds value cannot be denied. I, however, tend to favor wrestlers over strikers, and so I’m hesitant in tournaments. In cash games, plug-n-play because he should be very high owned.
Jason’s Pick: Devin Clark
It is unlikely that Devin Clark wins this fight, I’ll admit. However, if he does, his upside is tremendous. Clark is a boxer and wrestler, while he squares off against Ivan Shtyrkov, a very similar fighter. In the two previous fights that Clark has won, he did so with a combined total of 11 takedowns and 198 fantasy points. Shtyrkov is expected to end this fight via (T)KO, as he has a 33% chance of doing so, but Clark may be able to utilize his wrestling to pick up a decision win. At his current price tag, he is worth the risk in tournaments. This is a very difficult card to get a grasp on, so most may overlook the potential of Clark based on his poor Vegas odds, but that would be a mistake. Maximizing upside is not about picking the safest route.
Justin’s Reaction: Jason likes Clark a lot more than I do, but he does have a chance to win as an underdog, so it could be worse, right?
