High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Maycee Barber
This fight is rather simple for me. Maycee Barber is the next future star in the UFC, as she has been training from a young age for this exact moment. JJ Aldrich is a bit overrated, and I haven’t been overly impressed with her. That doesn’t bode well for Aldrich’s chances this weekend. Barber is a well-rounded fighter, who has finished five of her six professional fights (two submissions, three knockouts). Aldrich only has two losses in her career, both to fighters, who have competed in the UFC. Still, I expect Barber to continue her ascend up the division as she tries to become the youngest champion in UFC history. She’ll need a big win here for that to happen, and I’m fully expecting a dominant performance, potentially ending before the final bell.
Jason’s Reaction: This is an interesting pivot in tournaments, I think. I’ve been hearing quite a bit of chatter about JJ Aldrich, and I find myself convinced that the odds are a bit too wide on this one. If Aldrich does become one of the higher owned fighters this weekend, I like a Barber countermove in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes is the most obvious recommendation on the card this Saturday for a couple of reasons. Justin Willis, while dominant in his time with the UFC thus far, has yet to really prove himself against top-quality fighters. Mark Hunt is nearing the end of his career, and that is by far Willis’s most impressive victory. On top of his lack of impressive victories, Willis has never fought someone with the wrestling of Blaydes. He is almost purely a kickboxer, and Blaydes will undoubtedly use his collegiate wrestling background to force Willis to fight off his back. Blaydes has wins over Hunt, Alexey Oleynik, and Alistair Overeem. Coming off a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou, he will look to propel himself back into title contention. At +160 to win this fight inside distance, Blaydes has tremendous upside, especially considering he could secure five or more takedowns relatively easily in a three-round fight.
Justin’s Reaction: Blaydes is also my favorite fighter on the card for his price. He has unbelievable upside because of his wrestling. He also should strictly be the better fighter by a wide margin.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Chris Gutierrez
Chris Gutierrez is the best cash play on this card without question. He’s only $8.3K this weekend, but he’s now a -235 favorite to win this fight. He owns a 12-4 record, losing his only UFC fight. With that being said, his opponent, Ryan Macdonald, will be a significantly easier fight than Raoni Barcelos. Macdonald holds a perfect 10-0 record, but his record has been padded through easy fights. We took advantage of a padded record last week, and we’ll do so again this weekend. Gutierrez also comes with tremendous upside, as he owns +115 odds to finish this fight. I expected him to be the better fighter essentially wherever this fight takes place, and only $8.3K is entirely too cheap for this matchup.
Jason’s Reaction: This is a great recommendation. He was definitely flying under my radar, but the analysis makes quite a bit of sense.
Jason’s Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo
This is a difficult fight to predict, but the upside is obvious. Jussier Formiga is a black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo, and he has been competing at an elite-level in the UFC’s flyweight division for years. Deiveson Figueiredo, on the other hand, is a well-rounded fighter trained in capoeira, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, muay thai, wrestling, and boxing. With that comes impressive knockout potential. Figueiredo raided the regional scene with finishes, and when he finally moved up to the UFC, he continued his destruction, finishing three of his four opponents. Formiga is undoubtedly a huge step up in competition for him, but Figueiredo has +145 odds inside distance, and he is the slight betting favorite currently. He recently said he is going to attempt to save the flyweight division, and impressive knockouts will do just that. No one knows how good Figueiredo is right now, as he has never been defeated, and until someone provides some resistance, he will continue to make for a great, high-upside fantasy option.
Justin’s Reaction: There’s one thing I know about Figueiredo – he’s always undervalued. If you look at his UFC fights, he was either an underdog or a slight favorite in each one, and he hasn’t had too much trouble thus far. Again, he’s undervalued, especially in terms of his price tag on DraftKings. Elite pick.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Bryce Mitchell
This is an extremely odd fight. Both fighters are submissionists, although it should be relatively clear that Bobby Moffett will hold the edge in that category. He questionably submitted Chas Skelly in his UFC debut, but it was a win nonetheless. Bryce Mitchell also won his UFC debut with a decision victory over Tyler Diamond. I expect Mitchell to have the submission defense to stay out of trouble against Moffett, and he should have the striking edge. Simply put, Mitchell has more ways to win this fight. The best attribute of either fighter will be Moffett’s grappling, but Mitchell can also hold his own in that department, while winning the striking exchanges. These two fighters price tags don’t represent the odds, as Mitchell has been closing, as well. He’s a strong option in all leagues on this card.
Jason’s Reaction: Mitchell is one of the better value options on this card, especially based on the closing odds value. I approve this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Frankie Saenz
This is a strange week for underdog recommendations because the favorites all have very clear paths to victory, and not a lot of these fights are expected to finish inside distance. That lowers the possibility of upside, which is what fantasy owners need in lower-priced fighters, and makes recommending lower-priced fighters that much more difficult. Frankie Saenz is not going to finish Marlon Vera, as Vera is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so even if Saenz does take him down, Vera should be able to fend off strikes and submission attempts until the final bell rings. Saenz is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, however, which should give him enough knowhow to not get subbed from the top position. Most importantly, Saenz is an NCAA Division I wrestler from Arizona State University. This is going to frustrate Vera, as he will have to be careful and calculated with his punches, making it much harder for him to find a knockout finish. If Saenz gets this fight to the ground a couple of times and wears Vera out, he could easily see a decision victory. On a card without much upside, that will be worth his price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: This is a rescheduled fight, and I used Saenz in my lineup on the last card he was on. Obviously there are different underdogs for lineup construction on this card, but I feel Saenz does have a path to victory.
