High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Beneil Dariush
This is far from my favorite card in terms of fantasy options, and I truly can’t recommend playing cash. With that being said, Beneil Dariush is the safest play on the entire card. He has only truly lost to high-level competition throughout his career, including Alexander Hernandez, Edson Barboza, and Michael Chiesa. Dariush is a black belt in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. He’s an extremely well-rounded fighter, who can finish the fight from anywhere inside the octagon. Most importantly, Dariush will see a major step down in competition against Drew Dober this weekend. Dober has won five of his last six fights, but those wins are less than impressive. He saw a step up in competition against Olivier Aubin-Mercier, but was submitted in the second round of that fight. I feel Dariush should be able to control this fight wherever it takes place, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he were able to find a finish.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m not huge on playing Dariush in tournaments, but I agree that he is a great cash game option this weekend. His upside is sort of limited, but this card is nearly unpredictable, excluding this fight.
Jason’s Pick: Grant Dawson
Unless fantasy owners are going to roster Junior dos Santos, it might be rather difficult to spend all the salary this Saturday. Grant Dawson is the only fighter on the card this weekend that sports a negative finishing prop at -120. In 13 professional fights, Dawson is 12-1, and 9 of his victories come via submission (8 of which are rear-naked choke). Back in August of 2017, Dawson defeated Adrian Diaz in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series via rear-naked choke. He will finally get an opportunity to fight in the UFC against Julian Erosa. Erosa defeated Jamall Emmers in June of 2018 on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series prior to getting knocked out by Devonte Smith in November during UFC Fight Night 139. Dawson is only 25-years-old, so he should come into this fight significantly better than he was back in 2017. His ability to get fights to the ground, as well as his ability to find submissions should be the deciding factor in this fight. Granted (no pun intended), Erosa has never been tapped out. All in all, Dawson has great upside for his price tag based on his ability to secure takedowns (and, in doing so, secure added fantasy points), advances, and finishes.
Justin’s Reaction: To be 100% honest, I don’t think Erosa is that good. We basically knew that when he got knocked out by Artem “GOAT” Lobov in the Ultimate Fighter house. While that’s different than a real fight, and I don’t knock him for his loss to Devonte Smith, who is on a different level, he still likely shouldn’t be in the UFC. Dawson has multiple ways to win, and he should find a finish, making him one of the best plays on the card.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Alex White
Hello darkness, my old friend. I have been burned by Alex White more times than I can count, but I’m going back to him once again this weekend. He’s an active striker, who holds a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blue belt. In his only three UFC wins, he has scored 129, 90, and 110 DK points. Did I mention that White owns a win over Artem “GOAT” Lobov? He gets a matchup against Dan Moret, who has been a submission specialist throughout his career. I expect White to stay tough in the grappling exchanges, which could lead to this becoming a striking fight. If that’s the case, I favor White once again, and he has a very real chance at finding a knockout. At this point, I can’t trust White whatsoever, but his upside is undeniable. This feels like a card where you can take one underdog and five favorites without issue. This also feels like a card where someone could take six underdogs and place first in a tournament (don’t do this).
Jason’s Reaction: White has great upside. On a card so unpredictable, upside is all we can look for in tournaments. Thus, I like this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Louis Smolka
It is nearly impossible to trust Louis Smolka, especially considering his 1-3 record over his last four fights, but he has great upside, if he does end up on the winning side of this scrap. Smolka has a brown belt in Judo, which should help him secure takedowns over Matt Schnell, and if he does that, he could definitely find a submission victory. While Schnell does have a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, it’ll be his black belt in Karate that helps him win this fight. If Smolka does not get this fight to the ground, it should not be that difficult for Schnell to outstrike his opponent on his way to a decision victory. Smolka recently switched from Technics to Team Oyama, so we could see a new and improved version. Combine that with the fact that he should have more strength and energy after returning to the bantamweight division, after almost killing himself trying to make the flyweight limit, this fight is a surprise finish waiting to happen. Smolka has +205 odds to finish inside distance, which is great for his middle-of-the-road price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I think the story really makes me lean towards Smolka. He was an alcoholic, who could’ve quit after he was cut by the UFC, but instead, he worked to get his dream back. He said he stopped drinking, and is doing this for his family. I don’t trust him whatsoever, but when two fighters love pushing the pace, I’d rather take the fighter with proven finishing potential. Plus, Smolka’s upside is through the roof.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Maurice Greene
This pick came down to Maurice Greene or Ben Rothwell, so that shows you where I’m at here. For what it’s worth, Jason and my favorite low-priced options are the cheapest and second cheapest fighters on the slate. Greene is a versatile big man, who has knockout power and surprising submission skills. He’s also extremely long at 6’7”, making it difficult to get inside on him. He’ll see a rematch against Jeff Hughes, who he recently lost to in a five round fight in LFA. Hughes is a solid prospect, but I don’t expect him to finish Greene. That means Greene will have three full rounds to score, assuming he doesn’t find a finish. His inside the distance (ITD) odds are currently set at +272, which are far from bad, as well. For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t play Greene over Lewis, but he’s a solid source of salary relief if you’re looking to get Junior Dos Santos in your lineups.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m not sold here at all, and I think I’d rather pivot to that Rothwell recommendation you were considering.
Jason’s Pick: Derrick Lewis
This Saturday, Derrick Lewis is the biggest underdog on the card, but he is still only +180 according to Vegas. In order to compensate for all the fights basically being toss ups, DraftKings had to make Lewis the cheapest option available, but due to his wrestling ability, as well as his massive knockout power, he is still sporting a +225 inside the distance prop. While it is unlikely that Lewis’s kickboxing will outperform Junior dos Santos’s boxing, dos Santos will still have to be weary of takedown attempts. If Lewis ends up on top, even with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Yuri Carlton, it is going to be almost impossible for dos Santos to stand back up. Lewis has some of the best ground striking in the heavyweight division, and he has shocked the world over and over again. His terribly low price tag, as well as his decent odds to finish this fight, makes Lewis is top option in tournaments this week.
Justin’s Reaction: This price tag is absurd. The odds aren’t very wide, which adds built in value to Lewis, but DraftKings was forced to make their price tags wide because of a close card. Lewis has knockout potential at any point in time. Is he as technical as Dos Santos? No. Does he have to be? No. The upside is here for Lewis, especially at his price.
