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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Francis Ngannou
This is a relatively simple fight in my opinion, and I feel some are overthinking it. Who has the better technical striking? Junior dos Santos. Does it matter? Absolutely not. Francis Ngannou has displayed other-worldly power throughout his MMA career, while dos Santos has been knocked out in each of his last three losses. This fight has recency bias written all over it. Ngannou was dominated in his loss against Stipe Miocic before losing a decision to Derrick Lewis in what was arguably one of the worst fights in UFC history. Since then, he got “lucky” against Cain Velasquez and easily dispatched of a surging Curtis Blaydes. People are still treating Ngannou as if he’s scared to throw, which was seemingly the case against Lewis. Dos Santos, on the other hand, has won three consecutive fights, including a (T)KO against Lewis. His other fights were against Blagoy Ivanov and Tai Tuivasa, who aren’t near the level of Ngannou. Overall, dos Santos has to avoid Ngannou’s power for five rounds. Even being the better boxer, that’s a difficult task. Ngannou is likely to find that knockout punch, making him an elite option for a sub-$9K price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: On DraftKings, I definitely lean toward Ngannou for his upside, but I am hesitant to call this fight cut-and-dried. The quickness and stamina of dos Santos is semi-concerning. Still, Ngannou definitely has knockout power, and he should be able to find his shot before too long.
Jason’s Pick: Eryk Anders
Eryk Anders is seemingly the fighter that everyone loves to hate right now. He is getting very little credit for the flashes that he showed earlier in his career against fighters like Rafael Natal, Markus Perez, and Tim Williams. Rather, he is mainly criticized for two bad decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou, as well as being dominated by fighters like Thiago Santos and Khalil Rountree. All that said, this weekend, he squares off against Vinicius Moreira, who lost his first UFC fight to Alonzo Menifield after winning on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series against John Allan Arte. The 30-year-old from Brazil is not going to pose nearly the concern that most of Anders’ last opponents have, and Anders still, despite his showings of recent, has massive power and upside. The 32-year-old from Alabama is a -325 betting favorite, and he has -140 finishing odds. There is very little risk to this recommendation, while possessing quite a bit of upside, especially considering a lot of people are talking about Anders squandering this ‘gimme’ match.
Justin’s Reaction: Anders will have a clear striking advantage, so I can only assume he’ll turn this fight into a grappling match. In all seriousness, this should be a relatively easy win for Anders, but I like Ngannou and Alonzo Menifield much more, and I doubt you’ll fit three top-priced options into your lines this weekend.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Maurice Greene
This has one of the weirdest Vegas lines on the slate. Junior Albini has flashed virtually nothing in his UFC career, and it is somewhat of a wonder how he’s still on the roster. He upset Tim Johnson in his UFC debut, but has lost three consecutive fights since. His opponent Maurice Greene boasts a 2-0 record in the UFC after failing to win The Ultimate Fighter. Simply put, I favor Greene in nearly every aspect of this fight. He has the better striking, while possessing the length to keep Albini at range. Greene also has the grappling to put Albini in the more dangerous spots. The only advantage Albini possesses is power, but the striking and length of Greene should be able to negate that. Surprisingly, the line is shifting more towards Albini, giving him odds value, making Greene that much better of a tournament option on this slate. Similarly to Ngannou’s fight, I expect this one to end before the final bell, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: I am of the same opinion that Albini is not a UFC-caliber fighter. There is one thing that Justin left out, though. Greene has nasty crocheting abilities. I’m not sure whether or not they’ll come into play in this fight, but it is worth noting.
Jason’s Pick: Dalcha Lungiambula
Dalcha Lungiambula was almost removed from this upcoming UFC card, as Justin Ledet dropped out of the fight with only a few days before weigh-ins. Luckily, Dequan Townsend stepped up to the challenge, and Lungiambula will be able to, as he says, make Africa proud. He enters the UFC as the reigning heavyweight and light heavyweight champion of Africa’s Extreme Fighting Championship, and he has great odds via Vegas this weekend. The newcomer is -325 with -160 odds to finish inside distance. To put that in perspective, he is just as likely to win this weekend as Eryk Anders, but he is more likely to end the fight early. His price tag is under $9.0K. There is absolutely no reason to avoid him in cash games or tournaments. Lungiambula provides the most value of any fighter taking the center of the octagon, and he can be rostered in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Lungiambula is both of our favorite fighter this weekend for his price tag. Although, Ngannou is only $100 more.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Marco Polo Reyes
This play is essentially taking a flier on someone priced far too cheap. Marco Polo Reyes isn’t exactly an elite fighter, but he’s willing to turn any matchup into a fire fight, and he comes with power. His opponent, Drew Dober, is a bit more technical in his approach, while also boasting knockout power. When dealing with a less talented striker (fighter) with power, the best approach to potentially take is to make it a fire fight and hope you land first. While that’s an odd way to outline this fight, that’s what Polo Reyes is likely to do. I believe the line is also a bit inflated, as Dober is far from an elite fighter that should easily dismiss of Polo Reyes. That’s somewhat evident by him being the most expensive fighter on the card, but not possessing the best odds anymore. Keep in mind, this fight is most likely to end in a late knockout, but Polo Reyes could win a decision if his chin holds up, and he could score well by throwing caution to the wind. For the lowest price tag on the card, I’m willing to take that chance.
Jason’s Reaction: I understand the logic, but I think there is enough value to ignore this route. Polo Reyes has a puncher’s chance, but so do most on this card, and I think finding a better strategy than plug-and-pray is the correct move this weekend.
Jason’s Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin
Anthony Rocco Martin is an underdog with a clear path to victory, and sometimes, that is all fantasy owners need to find success in MMA. Demian Maia is the -190 betting favorite via Vegas, but Martin has better odds to win a decision. Vegas obviously thinks that Maia will find the submission victory, but even so, his odds are only +150 to do so. Martin is coming off four impressive victories in a row, defeating the likes of Keita Nakamura, Ryan LaFlare, Jake Matthews, and Sergio Moraes. Maia has struggled a bit more, but he is fighting elite-level competition only. It is the stamina and aggressiveness that give Martin a slight edge, especially if this fight goes the distance. Maia is going to attempt to not get hit, while also attempting to find a takedown. Martin just has to avoid that for three rounds, and he wins. It is definitely easier said than done, but it is possible, especially with the wild, erratic takedown defense that Martin tends to employ. Maia is nearing the end of his career, and each fight he takes a step down. Martin, on the other hand, is only taking steps up.
Justin’s Reaction: If you look at Maia’s losses, they are against elite wrestlers. Martin is not an elite wrestler. If Maia gets this fight to the ground, he wins. I want Martin to win this fight, but I’m not nearly as confident in his chances as you are. I understand it for his price, though.
