High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Chris Fishgold
I never thought I’d be recommending Chris Fishgold as the high priced option on a DFS slate, but this is an extremely odd card. Fishgold was knocked out in the first round of his UFC debut, but it was against a very good fighter in Calvin Kattar. He gets another matchup against a striker in Daniel Teymur, but he isn’t nearly as complete of an MMA fighter as Kattar. Teymur was completely exposed by Julio Arce in his last fight. Fishgold should use active striking to work his grappling, which will be his main advantage over Teymur. The most telling part of this fight is Fishgold’s -129 inside the distance odds. He has some of the highest odds to finish on this slate, and his active style raises his ceiling quite a bit. Teymur needs a win to stay in the UFC, which is scary for Fishgold, but he simply isn’t at the UFC-level, as many expected earlier in his career.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree that Fishgold seems risky on name value, but it’s impossible to argue with his current odds.
Jason’s Pick: Michel Prazeres
It is far too easy this weekend to roster the most expensive fighters on the slate because there is so much odds value to even out their high price tags. Michel Prazeres has not lost since 2015 when he wound up on the wrong end of the judge’s scorecard against Kevin Lee. Ismail Naurdiev, despite having an impressive 17-2 professional record, is no Kevin Lee. He recently lost at ACB 70 to Ismael de Jesus, and his primary form of offense is striking. Prazeres should rather easily thwart any striking engagements with takedowns and impressive ground-and-pound. Vegas currently has the line for this fight set at -420 in favor of Tractor, including -175 prop odds that he wins inside distance. As far as DraftKings is concerned, his ability to consistently land takedowns, rack up points with advances and ground strikes, and take relatively little damage makes him both safe and effective. He can be rostered in cash games and tournaments, and due to his first-round finishing potential, his high price tag is well worth it on a card with tons of value options.
Justin’s Reaction: This is an obvious play, and the right one. Prazeres comes with a high price tag, but it’s not overly difficult to fit him in your lineups. He’ll likely be a cash staple of mine this weekend, but I’ll also have him in plenty of tournament lineups.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Gillian Robertson
It seems that women are generally under-owned, as many people believe they are less likely to finish their opponents than men. That simply isn’t true, especially in the case of Gillian Robertson, who relies heavily on her grappling. Robertson owns two submission victories in the UFC, although she’s coming off of a submission loss in her last fight. Robertson is still a relatively raw fighter at a young age, but she’s continuing to progress at an extremely fast rate. She’s also training out of American Top Team, and this should easily be the best Robertson we have ever seen. She gets a good matchup against Veronica Macedo, who owns an 0-2 record in the UFC. While she has never been submitted in her career, she was finished two fights ago by Ashlee Evans-Smith. Robertson will be relentless with her takedowns, and Macedo simply doesn’t have the defense to keep this fight standing for three rounds. Robertson’s inside the distance odds are currently sitting at +125, and she’s a bit too cheap for her upside on this card.
Jason’s Reaction: Robertson should have the grappling advantage, and I also like her here.
Jason’s Pick: Thiago Santos
This recommendation goes against the odds value that Jan Blachowicz currently possesses, and it may be more beneficial to roster Blachowicz in cash games, but Santos is the better tournament option. Santos has -110 finishing odds compared to Blachowicz +135, and while it is difficult to finish Blachowicz, Santos has shown that he has no issues wasting his entire gas tank early in order to pick up the stoppage. This is a five-round fight, and it is very unlikely that it goes the distance. Since moving up to light heavyweight, Santos has looked absolutely unstoppable, finishing Jimi Manuwa, a fighter that Blachowicz failed to beat back in 2015. Blachowicz is significantly better now (as evidenced by his 2018 victory over Manuwa), and he deserves to be at the top of this division, but Santos might just be on another level. Either way, he has very heavy hands that bode well for tournaments on DraftKings. Since Blachowicz has the lower price tag, he may be owned at a higher clip, which is even better for fantasy owners in tournaments because it increases the overall upside of the lineup, if Santos does pick up the knockout victory. This is a very risky recommendation, but one of these two fighters MUST be in all tournament lineups, and Santos has more upside.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree that you have to use one of these two fights. I also lean Santos, but the odds value on Blachowicz is concerning to me. At the moment, I lean relatively heavily towards Santos, though.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Stefan Struve
It feels worse than awful going back to Stefan Struve. I misjudged Marcos Rogerio de Lima’s size in his last fight, as he moved to heavyweight. He easily put on weight for that fight, but it seems unlikely that he weighs more than 250 lbs in this fight. Struve, on the other hand, has to cut to make the 265 lbs limit, and he could have 40-50 lbs on Rogerio de Lima by fight time. More importantly, Struve will have a 9.5” reach advantage. He doesn’t always use his reach advantage well, but he doesn’t necessarily have to in this situation to keep Rogerio de Lima away from him. For what it’s worth, he also owns nearly a foot height advantage, as well. Rogerio de Lima is known for his knockout power, but he likely won’t find many clean shots on Struve in this fight. Struve also possesses better inside the distance odds at +152. On top of knockout power, Struve has the grappling advantage in this fight, and he has multiple avenues to victory. Rogerio de Lima needs to find a knockout, making it all that more likely the fighter with the significant height advantage wins this fight.
Jason’s Reaction: I have an extremely difficult time trust Struve whatsoever. He comes with more than enough upside to be considered in tournaments, but I simply can’t trust him at this point in his career.
Jason’s Pick: Damir Hadzovic
Damir Hadzovic is currently the favorite via Vegas to win this fight at -120 to Marco Polo Reyes’s +100. On DraftKings, he is obviously priced significantly lower than Reyes, and while he does not have that much upside, all he needs to do is win to hit value. If this fight ends inside distance, it will likely be due to a Reyes knockout, but Hadzovic has the defensive boxing, as well as wrestling and BJJ to keep this fight very competitive and neutralize the offense of Reyes. His fake takedown attempts should keep Reyes off-balance, and his BJJ should keep Reyes from wanting to shoot, even if he gets in trouble. Hadzovic is the more well-rounded fighter, and he could definitely pick up a big underdog (according to DraftKings) victory this weekend. In cash games, take the odds value and move on. In tournaments, use the odds value to generate a more risky lineup with fighters like Thiago Santos over Jan Blachowicz.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t know how to feel about this fight. I don’t think Hadzovic is very good, and I favor Reyes by a wide margin. The odds value are entirely too good to pass up, though. Against my better judgement, Hadzovic looks to be one of the best plays on the entire slate.
