High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Kevin Holland
Kevin Holland is a loudmouth fighter, who has backed it up in the octagon. Dana White said he called Holland for his debut against Thiago Santos because he wanted “to shut him up” (what a president of a company, right?), but Holland continued talking throughout the fight, and displayed tremendous toughness. Was he skilled enough to take out Santos? No. But Gerald Meerschaert simply isn’t on that level. Holland then dispatched of John Phillips on his way to an elite 156 DK point performance. Meerschaert is a well-rounded fighter, possessing a black belt in Kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. With that being said, Holland should feature the striking edge as the more athletic fighter between the duo. Meerschaert also struggles when he isn’t in dominant grappling positions, as we saw in his last fight against Jack Hermansson. I expect Holland to dominate the striking exchanges, while also finding more top control in the grappling exchanges. If that’s the case, he will have multiple avenues to find victory in this fight.
Jason’s Reaction: Holland has great upside, and his price tag is slightly discounted. However, there are better options in the “high priced” range, in my opinion (see Kennedy Nzechukwu below, or Ray Borg).
Jason’s Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu picked up a split decision victory over Anton Berzin back in 2017 on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, but it was not enough to warrant him a contract with the UFC. After two additional wins, he received another chance, and he took full advantage of that, knocking out Dennis Bryant within the first two minutes. Paul Craig, on the other hand, has had a rough go of it, and quite honestly, he should not still be fighting in the UFC. After loses to Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree, both first round knockouts that show Craig’s questionable chin, Craig was brutally dominated by Magomed Ankalaev before winning via submission with one second left in the fight. This earned him a new four-fight contract with the UFC. Nzechukwu, much like Pedro and Rountree, will test Craig’s chin, and as long as he can keep this fight standing, he should find a finish. Craig has a clear path to victory, but he is going to have to get Nzechukwu to the ground first, which is a difficult task. With -105 odds to finish this fight early, Nzechukwu should be slightly more expensive than he is, making him rosterable in both cash and tournament lineups.
Justin’s Reaction: I love Nzechukwu on this slate. I don’t believe Craig should be in the UFC, and if this fight stays standing, which it should, Nzechukwu should grab another knockout.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Jack Hermansson
The mid-tier is absolutely loaded this week, and it was difficult picking only one fighter here. At the moment, I’m leaning Jack Hermansson. Hermansson has had a few setbacks in the UFC, but neither were bad losses, as they were to Cezar Ferreira and Thiago Santos. I believe he’s ready for the next level here, while David Branch is seemingly trending down. I favor Hermansson as the more active, technical striker, who also comes with more power. Branch, on the other hand, is more reliant on his grappling, as he enters this fight with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Renzo Gracie. With that being said, similar to Gerald Meerschaert, Branch is at his best when he’s controlling the grappling exchanges. I believe Hermansson will be too physical of a presence for Branch to control where this fight takes place, and Hermansson could find similar success with elite ground and pound in this fight. Essentially, Branch is a better version of Meerschaert, but this sets up poorly for him. Hermansson also owns +140 odds to win inside the distance, as opposed to Branch’s +325.
Jason’s Reaction: Hermansson has massive upside this weekend, and he is seemingly in a great spot as far as the styles of these two fighters are concerned.
Jason’s Pick: MIchael Johnson
Michael Johnson, while perhaps on a downward swing in his career, has faced competition far more talented than that of Josh Emmett, and his experience, along with the injury that Emmett sustained in his last fight, should be the deciding factor in this fight. Emmett has a solid wrestling background, as a NAIA wrestler, but Johnson also wrestled at the collegiate level, as a NJCCA wrestler. Due to Emmett’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, it is unlikely that Johnson will actively use his wrestling, but rather, he will passively use his wrestling to keep this fight standing. If this fight stays standing for three rounds, Johnson should be able to outstrike Emmett, especially considering the power that lies behind his hands. Emmett, in a fight last year with Jeremy Stephens, quite literally broke his face. Whether or not he has fully recovered from such a devastating injury for a fighter is yet to be seen. It could be that he is quite a bit easier to knockout at this point in his career, and Johnson has knocked out fighters far superior (Dustin Poirier, anyone?). Johnson is a great tournament option at his price tag this weekend.
Justin’s Reaction: I didn’t see this prior to writing up the betting article, and this is exactly what I wrote. It’s obvious, in my opinion, and I’ll all about fading Emmett right now.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Justin Gaethje
I’ll preface this by saying that I believe that Edson Barboza wins this fight. That doesn’t change how elite of a DraftKings option Justin Gaethje is, though. He’s a no nonsense pressure fighter, who owns a 2-2 record. Essentially, Gaethje will knock you out or lose trying. Edson Barboza is an extremely intelligent fighter, who utilizes tremendous kicks throughout his fights. He’s coming off of an elite performance against Dan Hooker, but he lacked a bit of upside in his UFC career prior to that. That isn’t the case for Gaethje, though, who has scored 58+ fantasy points in each of his four UFC fights, including his two losses. At some point in this fight, someone will go to sleep. Gaethje is the cheaper fighter on DraftKings, though, and he’s significantly more active (and reckless). With the finishing odds relatively close to each other, I’ll take the fighter who has flashed more upside, specifically in tournaments.
Jason’s Reaction: Justin Gaethje is the top underdog option on this card without question.
Jason’s Pick: Michelle Waterson
Michelle Waterson is one of few legitimate underdog fighters that has a serious shot to pick up a victory. Unfortunately, this is a massive risk because Waterson is going to be heavily challenged by a fighter as talented as Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Waterson has the ability to finish an odd knockout, likely via headkick of some sort, or, the more likely scenario, find a submission. Kowalkiewicz is difficult to takedown, but Waterson might be able to use her distance striking to set it up. If, however, she gets caught during the takedown process, Kowalkiewicz will use her muay thai, which is dangerous for Waterson. All that said, Waterson has a clear path to victory, and Vegas gives her +490 odds to finish compared to Kowalkiewicz’s +635 odds. Waterson could also keep distance with her karate and win a boring decision. On a card without too many great underdog fighters (excluding Justin Gaethje), a win is a big deal.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Waterson in this fight. She has a clear grappling edge if she can get this fight to the ground, which is easier said than done. Regardless, Kowalkiewicz has no finishing potential, and I’ll take three rounds from Waterson with a potential win.
