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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Bryan Barberena
There are multiple high-priced fighters that I’m willing to pay up for on this slate, but Bryan Barberena is my favorite. He owns a 5-4 record in the UFC, but his worst loss was in 2015 against Chad Laprise. Barberena has pulled off a few upsets throughout his UFC career, essentially using grit, toughness, and volume to win. While I’m not a huge believer in the “grit and will” to win is greater than skill, Barberena has made an entire living off of it. We know that Randy Brown is far from a dominant fighter, and I truly don’t see where he has the advantage in this fight. Barberena should be able to control the fight on the feet or on the ground. In his five UFC wins, he’s averaging 100.4 fantasy points per fight. Essentially, Barberena owns a 90 FP floor with a ceiling significantly higher. Brown would need to control this fight for two rounds to pick up a decision, as he owns virtually no finishing potential against Barberena, and I don’t expect that to happen. Barberena is one of the safer options on this card, and he comes with tremendous upside.
Jason’s Reaction: Barberena is such a high-volume striker that it makes sense to roster him in all leagues. I agree, Justin.
Jason’s Pick: Deron Winn
Deron Winn was originally scheduled to fight Bruno Silva in what should have been a rather lopsided contest. When Silva dropped out of the fight, Eric Spicely decided to step up on short notice to accept Winn’s challenge. While Winn is still a massive favorite to pick up the victory, Spicely makes this fight a little bit more interesting. He is going to want to fight off of his back, as he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Tim Burrill. Fun fact: Spicely, prior to beginning his MMA career, was technically a professional wrestler, but not the same kind of ‘professional’ wrestler that Winn is. This is Spicely’s first fight back in the UFC since his brief two fight stint on the regionals, where he picked up two rather easy first round knockouts. Spicely does not have the takedown defense to defend against Winn’s takedown attempts, and Winn should be smart enough to avoid Spicely’s guard for too long. This could result in a fight with a lot of takedowns for Winn, which is his easiest path to victory and highest upside path to 100+ fantasy points on DraftKings.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m truly worried about Spicely’s submission game, but Winn makes an elite option this weekend.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Anderson Dos Santos
Anderson Dos Santos is priced as the underdog on DraftKings, but he’s currently a -110 favorite over Andre Ewell. This is a relatively clear matchup of striker vs. grappler. Keep in mind, Dos Santos has knockout power, while Ewell has submission skills. The levels against each other are far too wide, though. Essentially, if this fight stays standing, Ewell will have an advantage, while Dos Santos will have a large advantage on the ground. One of the major keys to this fight is that I believe Dos Santos has the potential to keep up with Ewell on the feet, while I feel this is a relatively cut-and-dried grappling win for the former. Dos Santos took his first UFC fight on short notice, and I’m expecting a significantly better fighter on a full camp. He stated that he has been working his wrestling, boxing, and BJJ for the last few months, and the boost in wrestling should play a large factor in this fight. Getting Dos Santos at an underdog price with his submission potential is an elite spot on this card.
Jason’s Reaction: Finding odds value on this card is almost impossible, so take advantage of it wherever it comes, even if that means banking on a fighter like Anderson dos Santos.
Jason’s Pick: Renato Moicano
The main event between Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung, or “The Korean Zombie” as he is most widely known, is a fight that every fantasy owner this Saturday should be targeting. Moicano is currently the -200 betting favorite via Vegas, and he has solid +160 odds to finish inside distance. Both fighters are notorious strikers, so this fight should stay standing. Moicano, despite being pegged as a rather fun fighter to watch, has yet to record a knockout in his professional MMA career. He prefers to utilize his jab and stay at range, which is going to be a problem for The Korean Zombie, especially considering Moicano’s semi-significant reach advantage. Over the course of five rounds, it is possible that Moicano lands enough significant strikes to put away Zombie, but based on his prior fight history, it is unlikely. This fight should go the distance, but Moicano should also rack up enough fantasy points to crush value at his $8.4K price tag on DraftKings. After all, he is ranked fourth among featherweights in strikes landed per minute with 5.6. It should be noted, however, if Zombie convinces Moicano to engage in a fire fight, he could end up face down on the octagon floor with a new and not-so-improved 5-3 UFC record. Moicano should be smarter than that.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m also on Moicano this weekend, but I wouldn’t be mad if anyone used TKZ. This should be a fun fight where both sides score, but Moicano should certainly be the more technical fighter.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Montana De La Rosa
I’ve played Montana De La Rosa in each of her first three UFC fights, and she has yet to let me down. She’s now an underdog against Andrea Lee, who is another top prospect in the flyweight division. Lee is a well-rounded fighter, who practices judo, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and muay thai. De La Rosa isn’t quite as versatile, but her wrestling and BJJ should give her the advantage on the ground. If this fight stays standing, Lee should have a relatively clear advantage, but I’m not sold she’s going to be able to keep this fight from hitting the ground. De La Rosa has also continuously progressed in her time off, and as a 24-year-old fighter, I’m expecting that to happen once again. She will be forced to utilize her grappling in this fight, giving her a high ceiling for a low price tag. As you can see in our betting article, I believe De La Rosa wins this fight, and her price tag on DraftKings is elite.
Jason’s Reaction: This is probably a little bit of ‘she won me money in the past’ bias, but I don’t mind the recommendation. At least, for a low price tag, De La Rosa has a path to victory.
Jason’s Pick: Dan Ige
The upcoming fight between Dan Ige and Kevin Aguilar is one that has fight fans divided to the core. Luckily for the Karma readership, I’m a level-headed person and realize that there are advantages and disadvantages to both fighter’s games. Dan Ige is on a three-fight win streak in the UFC after losing his first fight, not including Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, in the UFC to Julio Arce. Kevin Aguilar, also winning a fight on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, has yet to lose in the UFC. Ige is the more well-rounded fighter, but Aguilar has the better striking. Aguilar also has very solid takedown defense, which could be a problem for Ige, who will want to utilize his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, if at all possible. Even so, Ige is no slouch when it comes to striking, and if he can effectively use his striking in order to set up a takedown, he can gain the upperhand in this fight. Ige is +365 to win inside distance, despite being a +130 underdog. In his last three fights, Ige has shown impressive fantasy upside, finishing one opponent via submission in the first round, one opponent via knockout in the first round, and one opponent via decision. That decision victory netted just under 100 fantasy points. His price tag is finally under $8.0K, and fantasy owners should take advantage on a card that does not have too many ‘toss-up’ fights. This fight can go either way, and that is exactly why Ige makes such a great value option in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: When two opponents are close in talent, I’ll take the guy that has more ways to finish the fight. Ige makes a great option this weekend.
