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High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Aleksander Rakic
Aleksander Rakic left quite a bit to be desired in his first two UFC fights, beating Francimar Barroso and Justin Ledet via decision. Keep in mind, both fights were one-sided, specifically the Ledet fight, but he didn’t display the power many were expecting in those bouts. He then unleashed the striking he was known for on Devin Clark, knocking him out in the first round of that fight, although he struggled with his defense early on. Rakic will see a massive step-up in competition against Jimi Manuwa, who has been a staple of the light-heavyweight division since joining the UFC in 2012. With that being said, he enters this fight with plenty of wear and tear, as he has not won since March of 2017. He has also been knocked out in two of his last three fights. This is a terrible matchup for Manuwa, who struggles to take damage. Rakic also owns some wrestling that he can fall back on, although I’m not sure that will be needed. He’s a marketable fighter in a shallow division, and the matchup against Manuwa will get him a notable win. My only concern is that Rakic is hesitant in this matchup, but I still expect this fight to end with an early finish.
Jason’s Reaction: To be fair to Manuwa, he showed a solid chin against Thiago Santos, but Santos proved that pressure is too much for the aging Englishman. Rakic should win in a rather brutal fashion. I love this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Alexander Gustafsson
Okay, I’ll bite. Alexander Gustafsson is on a completely different level than Anthony Smith in every category except heart, which also happens to be our father’s only argument for Michael Jordan over LeBron James. Unfortunately for both Smith and our father, heart doesn’t mean shi- … anything. Gustafsson is the more well-rounded fighter, as he has both better striking and grappling. Smith went on an impressive win streak, and the fact that he stepped into the same octagon with Jon Jones at any point in his career is an accomplishment. Smith has displayed an impressive chin, but that only adds to Gustafsson’s upside this Saturday. If Smith does not get knocked out early, expect the significant strikes to pour in, as Smith will not have the defense to stop Gustafsson. Smith has one path to victory, which is to pressure Gustafsson until he quits. However, Gustafsson will simply use his wrestling and grappling to force Smith to back off. This is going to be one of the few lopsided fights on the UFC Stockholm card.
Justin’s Reaction: We saw how outmatched Smith was against Jones, which we knew going in, but was confirmed during the fight. Gustafsson will never fight Jones again, but how can he “one up” him this weekend? Get the finish. Jones didn’t finish Smith, and I’d be willing to bet that Gus is going to do everything in his power to get that finish.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Chris Fishgold
This is a close, interesting fight. Chris Fishgold is 1-1 in the UFC, losing his debut to Calvin Kattar before submitting Daniel Teymur in the second round of his last fight. Makwan Amirkhani owns a 4-1 record in the octagon, losing only a split decision to Arnold Allen. Amirkhani is the safer striker of the duo, while Fishgold is a bit more reckless. With that being said, I expect this fight to quickly become a grappling match. Both fighters are at their best when they are controlling the grappling exchanges. Fishgold has a strong submission game when he’s in plus grappling positions, while Amirkhani has a wrestling background, which tends to cause him to struggle from the bottom. In this particular fight, I expect Fishgold to win the majority of the grappling exchanges, as Amirkhani has struggled with his defensive wrestling in the past. Essentially, this is going to become a grappling match, and I favor Fishgold, making him the better option, specifically on DraftKings.
Jason’s Reaction: I disagree. Amirkhani has been developing his defensive wrestling over the last four years, and he dedicated 10 months to boxing over the last year, as well. He is not fighting frequently, which allows him to progress in camp, and Fishgold is too reckless. Amirkhani has proven himself against better competition, and I expect him to win.
Jason’s Pick: Joel Alvarez
This recommendation is risky, but Joel Alvarez is a solid tournament option this weekend on DraftKings. His price tag is very reasonable, and he has good odds to finish this fight via submission. His inside the distance odds are +160, but his odds to win the fight are only -105. That leaves a small margin for a decision victory, increasing Alvarez’s upside, but also his riskiness. It is possible that he does not win, but predicting losses is not how fantasy owners win MMA DFS tournaments. Maximizing upside is a far more effective strategy. In his professional career, Alvarez has displayed a vast knowledge of submission offense, ending fights with a triangle choke, a guillotine choke, and a d’arce choke. Danilo Belluardo, on the other hand, is a bit more well-rounded. He has victories via knockout, but he has displayed submission knowledge, as well, ending one fight via brabo choke. That said, Alvarez has a significantly better reach, which will allow him to keep Belluardo at range while trying to secure a takedown. If this fight hits the mat, the money should be on Alvarez.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree that Alvarez makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Bea Malecki
This is a fight between two inexperienced 145 lbs. fighters. Bea Malecki owns a 2-0 record, finishing both of her fights in the first round. Duda Santana is also undefeated at 3-0, winning two decisions and a first round (T)KO. Their opponents currently own a combined 8-11 record, though. Overall, this is a relatively simple matchup. Neither fighter is going to try to take this fight to the ground. Malecki is a Muay Thai champion, while Santana utilizes a volume striking base behind her jab. I have some concern that Santana will be able to win a decision with volume, but Malecki has significantly more upside due to her Muay Thai background. I expect her to find success in the clinch, and she gets a slight bonus from fighting at home on this card. Truthfully, neither fighter should be in the UFC, so this fight comes with some risk, but Malecki’s price tag is a bit ridiculous. Keep in mind, she’s also a -125 favorite, so there is built in odds value for her $7.6K price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Malecki makes a strong option for a low price tag. I love the odds value here.
Jason’s Pick: Devin Clark
The money line movement on Devin Clark is just far too much to ignore. He is currently the favorite in his fight this weekend against Darko Stosic, and he is priced on DraftKings like a rather large underdog. There isn’t too much in the form of flattery to say about Devin Clark, other than that he knows how to wrestle and has beaten a few UFC-level fighters. However, Darko Stosic has one UFC victory, which happens to be over Jeremy Kimball, a fighter that arguably should not have been in the UFC. Stosic is going to rely on his knockout power and striking, while Clark will hope to make the fight a little more messy. He is a South Dakota State Champion and Junior College National Champion in wrestling, and his boxing is decent. If Clark picks up several takedowns and wears down Stosic, he could end up with over 80 fantasy points and a victory. He is, based on odds value alone, a must play in cash games. In tournaments, it may make sense to go with Stosic in a few lineups due to his knockout potential, seeing as Clark will be so highly owned.
Justin’s Reaction: Clark is a great odds value play, but I may be a fish and bite on Stosic. I don’t see a reason for the line movement, and if Stosic wins, it’s inside the distance.
