High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Cain Velasquez
I think this play is rather simple if you feel Cain Velasquez is going to win this fight, as I do. Velasquez is 8-2 in his last 10 fights, and he’s averaging 128.6 DK points per win over that span. He also scored 100+ DK points in each of those fights. If Velasquez picks up the win, he’s going to score north of 100 DK points, and he has 150+ DK point upside. The obvious concern with Velasquez is that he hasn’t fought in the UFC since July of 2016 due to injuries. With that being said, he has been an elite fighter winning against elite competition since 2010. Francis Ngannou looked completely lost in his fight against Derrick Lewis after losing a championship fight against Stipe Miocic. After most wrote Ngannou off, he dominated a rising star in Curtis Blaydes, displaying the elite power that got him to the top of the heavyweight division. Similarly to the Miocic fight, though, this is simply an awful matchup for Velasquez. He’s an athletic heavyweight, who can rely on grappling to tire Ngannou out, while also potentially striking with him at times. Ngannou only needs one punch to knock anyone out, but that’s exactly what you’re counting on. Velasquez has the striking to stay away from Ngannou’s power, but his grappling is what separates him in this matchup. If Velasquez wasn’t coming off of a major layoff, he’d be a significantly larger favorite. Personally, I’m looking forward to taking advantage of these odds.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree. Velasquez is the play here, even though he is rather expensive. One concern, however, is Ngannou ‘running’, for lack of a better word, for as long as possible, much like the Derrick Lewis fight.
Jason’s Pick: Kron Gracie
Typically, it is difficult to justify rostering one of the most expensive fighters available on any given slate when making their UFC debut, especially after only having four professional fights. Kron Gracie has always been an exception. Alex Caceres is no walk-in-the-park, as this is his 19th UFC appearance at only 30 years old. He does have a chance to score a crazy knockout via spinning back kick or something similar, but ultimately, Gracie is going to get him to the ground, and once on the ground, Caceres will look like a fish out of water. Gracie has a black belt in Judo, which he will utilize to get this fight to the ground, and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, which he will use to submit Caceres. His odds to win via submission are currently -185, and with the takedown and advances, he could be in for a huge fantasy performance on DraftKings. If he fits, roster Gracie.
Justin’s Reaction: I love Gracie in GPPs this week, but I can’t roster him in cash games. There is a very real chance that Gracie loses this fight, and I’d like rather play Manny Bermudez for $200 cheaper. With that being said, Gracie comes with a ton of upside, and I have no issues with him in tournaments.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Paul Felder
I’m somewhat surprised at the line movement of this fight, but Paul Felder has always been one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s coming off of a split decision loss against Mike Perry in a fight that he took on short notice and broke his arm early in the fight. Prior to that, he was coming off of three consecutive (T)KO victories. He’s known as a striker, but he’s a versatile fighter. He’s currently a second degree black belt in Taekwondo, black belt in Karate, and purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Daniel Gracie. James Vick doesn’t have the credentials of Felder, but he is a successful striker, who utilizes his length at a high level. Vick owns a few solid wins on his record, but he has been exposed in each of his attempts to climb up the ranks. He was knocked out by Beneil Dariush before suffering a devastating knockout loss to Justin Gaethje in his last fight. While I don’t believe Felder will be fighting for a title anytime soon (although I hope he works his way up there), I believe he’ll be able to expose Vick’s weaknesses similarly to the higher level fighters before him. The wider this line gets, the more people will likely play Vick based on odds value. I whole-heartedly side with Felder in this fight, so the wider it gets, the better I like this play.
Jason’s Reaction: Regardless of who wins this fight, the optimal lineup will likely have one of these two fighters. I also slightly lean Felder due to his intelligence in the octagon and larger tool set.
Jason’s Pick: Aljamain Sterling
This matchup is very winnable for Aljamain Sterling. Jimmie Rivera, despite being one of the best UFC fighters in the promotion, is very small compared to Sterling, as far as length is concerned. Rivera is a third-degree black belt in Kyokushin Karate under Tiger Schulmann, and he will, quite obviously, attempt to use his striking to its full extent. Sterling, on the other hand, does not have the same credentials. He is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Matt Serra, and while that does come in handy on the ground, it is not necessary for Sterling to win this fight. What is important is Sterling’s wrestling background. He is a two-time NCAA Division III All-American wrestler, and he will undoubtedly want this fight playing out on the ground. That bodes well for fantasy owners, as takedowns are worth five points each, and Rivera is likely compact enough to stand up a few times before he wears down. Sterling will have to use his reach to keep Rivera away from him, and as long as he continues to pressure forward, he should find a few opportunities to turn this fight into a wrestling match. For his price tag, Sterling is the play here.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree that Sterling is a better option for his price tag over Rivera. I’m just not entirely sure he’s going to win this fight. Rivera has extremely good takedown defense, and if Sterling can’t get him to the ground, he will lose this fight. That obviously bodes well for Sterling’s DraftKings potential, which is why I favor him.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ashlee Evans-Smith
There are a few salary relief options I’m looking at tonight, but Ashlee Evans-Smith sticks out the most at the moment. She made her flyweight debut in her last fight, winning a unanimous decision against Bec Rawlings. While that isn’t an elite win, she has only lost against UFC-level competition above her weight class throughout her career. She lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute, while also possessing active grappling. Her opponent, Andrea Lee, is set up to be a future contender in the flyweight division, but she has had her hiccups throughout her career. She lost a split decision to Roxanne Modafferi before getting submitted by Sarah D’Alelio in a less than impressive showing. Evans-Smith will need to use her grappling in this fight, although there is a realistic chance that Lee can keep this standing throughout the fight. Regardless, Evans-Smith is an extremely active fighter, who has grappling upside for a low price tag. I expect her UFC experience to help her through this fight, and she does come with finishing potential, although I don’t find that to be overly likely. Still, she possesses tremendous upside for her current price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I tend to look toward higher upside underdogs, but if the favorites win frequently tonight, and Evans-Smith can sneak out a decision victory, this makes for an interesting selection.
Jason’s Pick: Renan Barao
Luke Sanders is not that good of a fighter. Let’s say it again, Luke Sanders is not that good of a fighter. He lost via submission to both Iuri Alcantara and Rani Yahya in two of his last four fights. He also lost via knockout to Andre Soukhamthath. His ability to find himself in horrible positions throughout most of his fights is not a coincidence. He has horrendous fight IQ and worse heart. Renan Barao, on the other hand, has been struggling for different reasons. He is still attempting to find the perfect weight division, and it looks like his nutritionist team should probably find new jobs. As of now, it is unclear whether or not Barao will make weight, but if he does, and he looks good, that is bad news for Sanders. As a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Andre Pederneiras, Barao has the ability to find Sanders in a precarious spot throughout this fight and submit him. He also has knockout potential. There is not another true underdog on this card with as much finishing potential as Barao. Just say no to Sanders, please.
Justin’s Reaction: I’ve been burned by Sanders so many times that it’s difficult to even consider rostering him. His upside is so high in his wins, but he truly has horrible fight IQ. I have a very difficult time rostering this type of Renan Barao, as well, though. While I don’t love Barao, I do slightly lean him at the moment.
