What’s up, Karma Nation!? We have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription!
High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ryan Spann
In Brazil, I don’t want to take too many fighters against Brazilians that will go to decision, especially the higher priced fighters. I don’t expect Spann to go to decision in this fight, though. It took him a bit to get to the UFC, but he has slick striking to go along with knockout power. He also gets a matchup against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who is an aging fighter (42 years old) at this point in his career. He’s a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but I don’t truly expect this fight to go to the ground. He has won two of his last three fights, knocking out Sam Alvey and Patrick Cummings, but they don’t have the speed and power combination of Spann. I expect Spann to utilize a blitz-style striking attack, resulting in a knockout. Nogueira has proven that his chin will fail him, and oddly enough, I’d expect this line to wider if this fight wasn’t taking place in Brazil. There are a few solid high-priced options this weekend, but Spann won’t break your salary, and he has a very real potential for a first-round finish.
Jason’s Reaction: I like this recommendation. Spann’s lesser high-priced price tag is interesting as far as potential lineup constructions are concerned.
Jason’s Pick: Raoni Barcelos
While it is going to be a difficult to roster Raoni Barcelos based on his high price tag, it is worth it, if the salary cap space is available. Both Barcelos and Clay Guida are expected to finish rather easily. Barcelos is set at -235 to win inside distance, while Guida is set at -170. However, Guida is only +175 to win in the first round, and Barcelos is +105. To repeat, he is almost even to win in the very first round! This is about as sure of a bet as is possible in MMA. Barcelos was originally supposed to fight Said Nurmagomedov, which would have been much more competitive, but Carlos Huachin stepped in after Nurmagomedov dropped out. To be fair, Barcelos is going to have to finish in the first round to hit value at his price tag, but with a 50% chance of that happening, and if it does not happen, a 75% (or so) chance of a finish happening, there is little reason to avoid this fight in cash games. If there are enough low-priced fighters that fantasy owners actually want to roster, Barcelos also works in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: If you can find the salary, Barcelos is the safest play on the entire slate.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Jessica Andrade
This is far and away the easiest play on the slate for me. Jessica Andrade fights at an elite pace, and she has proven that she can continue that pace deep into fights. Since joining the strawweight division, she owns a 6-1 record, losing only to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who possesses the footwork and takedown defense to evade Andrade’s strikes and grappling. In those six wins, Andrade averaged 127.3 fantasy points per fight. Since that loss, she has run through three of the best strawweights in the world. Rose Namajunas shocked the world when she defeated Jedrzejczyk before winning what I felt was a questionable decision in the rematch. It wasn’t long before that (two fights) that Namajunas lost a decision to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, though. She owns a black belt in both Taekwondo and Karate, while both of these fighters own brown belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. I fully expect Andrade’s pace, aggression, and strength to make the difference in this fight. I am a fan of Namajunas, but this is simply a bad matchup. Not only do I believe Andrade should be a larger favorite, but I would play her on DraftKings if she was the most expensive option on the slate, as she will lead everyone in scoring if she does indeed find the win.
Jason’s Reaction: You are absolutely WAY too high on Andrade this weekend. Rose Namajunas knocked out the undisputed best strawweight fighter in the world. She has all the tools to win this fight, despite the bad matchup. I’m not at all confident in Andrade winning this fight. However, if she does, it will be an impressive fantasy performance, which makes her a great tournament option.
Jason’s Pick: Laureano Staropoli
This is another recommendation based almost exclusively on Vegas odds. The fight is a toss up. However, even in a toss up fight, someone has to win, and someone has to lose. At $8.2K and $8.0K, these two fighters have impressive upside for tournament lineups. Laureano Staropoli is slightly cheaper than Thiago Alves, and he comes with slightly better finishing potential. His inside distance odds are currently +277, compared to Alves at +500. Alves obviously has better odds to win a decision, and this fight is expected to go decision. That said, upside is what tournament lineups are looking for, and Staropoli has just that. Alves has been on a skid of recent, and he was knocked out in two of his last six fights. In those six fights, he is 2-4 with a split decision victory over Max Griffin being his latest contest. Staropoli, on the other hand, has fought once in the UFC, and he defeated Hector Aldana via unanimous decision. He might be able to use his youth and stamina to discourage Alves’s striking. Again, Staropoli is far from a sure bet, but he makes a lot of sense in tournament lineups.
Justin’s Reaction: I also like Staropoli in this matchup, but keep in mind that if this is even relatively close, Alves will win the decision in Brazil.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Kurt Holobaugh
I got to this article first, but I wanted to leave an elite play (Alexander Volkanovski) for Jason. This is essentially a matchup-based play. I don’t truly believe Kurt Holobaugh is a great talent, but he’s a pressure fighter, who is relatively well-rounded. Thiago Moises is also relatively well-rounded, although I’d give Holobaugh the advantage in striking and Moises the advantage in grappling. This fight essentially comes down to pressure. Moises has struggled off of his back foot, and Holobaugh loves to pressure his opponents. Most importantly, Holobaugh has been an extremely durable fighter, although he has been finished in his last two fights. My biggest concern is that this fight is likely to go to decision in Brazil, where the judging is suspect at best. Still, Holobaugh should be able to control the striking exchanges, while mixing in his wrestling. He also has some odds value built in to his price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I like targeting these middle-of-the-pack toss up fights this weekend. Holobaugh does not have better odds to win inside distance, but he is quite a bit cheaper than Thiago Moises, making him a valuable piece toward high-upside lineup construction.
Jason’s Pick: Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski is one of my favorite recommendations for this Saturday, so thank you, Justin. He is currently a +115 underdog against Jose Aldo, who is set at -135. In MMA, this indicates that the fight is basically a toss up, but the line seems off. Aldo, despite his impressive career up to this point, as well as his impressive recent performances against the likes of Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano, is beatable. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Andre Pederneiras and a black belt in luta livre under Marco Ruas, but Volkanovski will do all he can to keep this fight standing. He does have a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Volkanovski has the wrestling to dictate where this fight takes place, and that will be on the feet. He has displayed incredible striking against fighters like Darren Elkins and Chad Mendes, and he is ready for this step up in competition. Aldo has only lost to Max Holloway and Conor McGregor in the UFC, but Volkanovski has never lost. If he wins this fight, he should be next in line for a title shot. His output is exactly what tournament lineups beg for on DraftKings, as well. Roster him in all leagues for his lower price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: The thing I like about Volkanovski is that if he opts to use his wrestling, it will be against the cage, meaning Aldo’s BJJ will be virtually useless. I truly worry about how good Aldo looked against Moicano, but I’m on Volkanovski this weekend, especially for the lower price tag.
