High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Montel Jackson
This is an extremely odd card, where I’m not sure I’ll be paying up besides for Max Holloway. There is essentially nothing guaranteed on this card besides Montel Jackson, which is why I’m recommending this specifically for cash games. He’s currently a -470 favorite over Andre Soukhamthath, which I feel is wide, but the latter features some of the worst fight IQ in the UFC. Soukhamthath features heavy hands, but that’s essentially it. I expect Jackson to have the advantage in both the striking and grappling in this fight, and he’ll have multiple avenues to victory. Assuming he doesn’t get clipped at some point in this fight, he could win via (T)KO, submission, or decision. His score may not be the best on the card, but getting a sure-fire win is something that is extremely important in cash games.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree here. Do not use Montel Jackson in tournaments, unless you are extremely confident with a few lower priced underdogs. That said, he is one of the best cash game options available this Saturday.
Jason’s Pick: Max Holloway
There is absolutely no way to avoid Max Holloway this weekend. Dustin Poirier is a scary opponent for someone like Holloway, as he possesses quite a bit of knockout power, combined with a chin that can withstand the most brutal of combinations, but it will not be enough. Holloway is currently the -225 favorite to win this fight, and for good reason. In moving up a weight class, Holloway will see a little bit more power in his punches, as he will not have to drain himself as much to make the weight cut, but he should not lose all that much speed. Even if he does, he has enough for it not to matter. His inside distance odds are currently negative, as well, at -110. Does Poirier have a chance? Absolutely, and he can be considered a viable, high-upside tournament option, but Holloway should win this fight. He is the better striker, which is not a knock on Poirier, but a nod to just how great Holloway truly is. In his last fight with Ortega, he landed 290 significant strikes, finishing with 190 DraftKings fantasy points. His upside is tremendous, and he is cheaper than he should be this Saturday. Enough said.
Justin’s Reaction: Holloway is an elite option. There’s no reason to avoid him in this type of a fight.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Zelim Imadaev
There are a lot of big names on this card, which is why I fully expect Zelim Imadaev to go overlooked. They set him up perfectly in his UFC debut, giving him a fight that can truly showcase his skills. Through eight fights, Imadaev has eight knockouts, and he has flashed immense power. His opponent, Max Griffin, is known for his kickboxing, meaning we will likely see this fight take place standing for at least the majority of it. My only true concern is that Griffin has the length to frustrate Imadaev and drag him into deep waters in his UFC debut. Still, Imadaev owns +178 odds to finish inside the distance, and he’s only $8.2K. While he’s far from a lock to win, I’ll take his violent fighting style in tournaments for that cheap of a price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I love the upside that Imadaev possesses in tournaments. There are quite a few great mid-priced options, and Imadaev is one of them. Great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Nikita Krylov
This fight is either going to have fireworks, or Nikita Krylov will lose via submission or boring three-round decision, whilst being on his back the entire time. Can Krylov stop Ovince Saint Preux from securing the takedown? This is the million dollar question. Krylov averages 5.59 significant strikes per minute, and he has never seen the judge’s scorecard in his professional career. In fact, he has only seen a third round once. He has the skill set to be a top contender in the light heavyweight division with a black belt and Master of Sports of Ukraine in kyokushin karate, a Master of Sports of Ukraine in hand-to-hand combat, and a Master of Sports of Ukraine in submission fighting. Unfortunately, he also sports a 40% takedown defense rate. He has various way to finish this fight, and OSP is going to have to make it boring in order to win. With that said, OSP has a very real chance to win, but he is not worthy of DraftKings consideration. Krylov is the play, especially in tournaments, due to his upside.
Justin’s Reaction: I disagree with you stating OSP will make this boring, and he shouldn’t be used on DraftKings. Boring isn’t the right word, in my opinion. Also, if OSP wins, he finishes, and I’d take that all day for $8K. With that being said, I love the Krylov recommendation, and I do lean his way at the moment in this fight.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway should be stacked together in cash games without looking back. Jason outlined this fight above, and I agree with him for the most part. Holloway is the better fighter, but there will be plenty of punches thrown in this fight, and there is a very real chance that Poirier could land a knockout shot. With that being said, he’s going to mix in his grappling. Poirier is an extremely smart fighter, who submitted a young Holloway in 2012. The latter has gotten significantly better since then, but it’s a threat that is looming. I expect Holloway to try to keep this fight standing, and if that’s the case, these two should trade for rounds before someone finds a knockout. They both strike at an elite pace, and there’s reason to believe that Poirier could hit value even in a loss. I’m truly considering stacking this fight in tournaments on top of cash games.
Jason’s Reaction: Like I mentioned earlier, Poirier is a solid option in higher upside tournament lineups. That said, I will not be rostering him at all, if I am only throwing in a lineup or two into the mix. In cash games, Poirier is a must, obviously.
Jason’s Pick: Kelvin Gastelum
There are, admittedly, quite a few great underdog options this weekend in tournaments, so it will not be all that difficult to avoid Kelvin Gastelum, but he is still worthy of consideration. Israel Adesanya is the next potential star in the middleweight division, but he has yet to truly prove himself against an outstanding wrestler. He is going to want to keep this fight standing, despite his blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Andre Galvao. Adesanya is an elite-level kickboxer. However, Kelvin Gastelum has a black belt in 10th Planet jiu-jitsu under Brian Beaumont, and he was a state champion wrestler at Cibola High School. His most recent loses came via Tyron Woodley, Neil Magny, and Chris Weidman. His most recent win was against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, one of the best currently at middleweight. Adesanya does not have that kind of experience or track record. The Last Stylebender’s odds are currently overstretched at -175, but Gastelum still possesses a +236 inside distance prop via Vegas. Most importantly, if he does win, this is going to turn into a wrestling match, which bodes well for his tournament upside. It should be noted that Gastelum can strike with Adesanya, perhaps he has a slight disadvantage, but that is not going to be his gameplan. If he cannot get Adesanya to the ground, he does not necessarily lose, though.
Justin’s Reaction: WHAT!? I told Jason months ago that I believe Gastelum will end the year as the Middleweight champion. He said he’s overrated. I can’t believe what I’m reading, but I’m all in. These odds are absurd, and it’s the Adesanya hype train talking. Gastelum should be able to derail that.
