High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Zabit Magomedsharipov
There are a few great expensive options on this card, but Zabit Magomedsharipov sticks out the most. Surprisingly, he’s under $9K, which is too cheap for him, regardless of his opponent. His winning odds (-245) are extremely close to some of the fighters priced ahead of him, but his style is what separates him. He’s averaging 4.49 significant strikes per minute, while also averaging 7.24 takedowns per fight. He has scored 100+ DK points in each of his four UFC fights, while averaging 123.5 DK points per fight. There is no doubt that Jeremy Stephens will be his most difficult test to date, but he’s a power striker, who could be slowed down a bit by Magomedsharipov’s pressure. Magomedsharipov has inside the distance odds of +183 and win by decision odds of +141. Quite frankly, I don’t believe the method of victory matters too much. He is expected to score 100+ DK points with a finish or in a decision. While I respect Stephens as a fighter, it’s simply Magomedsharipov’s time in that division.
Jason’s Reaction: I love this recommendation. Fading some of the more expensive top options will be the key to success this week on DraftKings. Magomedsharipov has unlimited upside.
Jason’s Pick: Mickey Gall
Mickey Gall is far from one of the better fighters on the UFC roster, but Diego Sanchez is completely washed, and he will likely (hopefully) retire after this fight. Gall has +215 odds to finish this fight via (T)KO, as well as +275 odds to finish this fight via submission. Overall, he is -125 to win inside distance, which does not take into consideration that he will likely walk away with a first-round victory, if he does finish the fight early. Ultimately, Gall should keep this fight standing. Sanchez has a great ground game, sporting a black belt in both Gaidojutsu and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, the latter coming under Roberto Tussa, but even if this fight does end up on the mat, Gall should be on top, and his brown belt in BJJ under David Adiv should be enough to fend off lazy submission attempts from the bottom. Gall will likely use his striking to knock Sanchez down before jumping on him for the submission or TKO victory. As an added bonus, Sanchez is probably going to be rather highly owned because it is the easiest way to roster Jon Jones. Be contrarian! Roster Gall and Anthony Smith instead.
Justin’s Reaction: I’ve seen a lot of high-end DFS MMA players talk about “having to roster Diego Sanchez” this weekend. That’s certainly a strategy, but I agree it opens the door for Gall to be a great tournament option. Truthfully, Gall, who has never won via knockout, owning +215 odds to win this fight via (T)KO is all we need to know about where Sanchez is at this point. Gall wasn’t even close to my favorite expensive option, but thinking about this in a contrarian way is absurdly smart, and I love it. Great pick here.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Johnny Walker
I’ll go on record saying I can’t wait until Johnny Walker loses because I can’t standing his antics before and after his fights. With that being said, he has found tremendous results inside the octagon. He’s 2-0 with two knockouts, needing only a total of 17 significant strikes to find those knockouts. He has elite power, and gets a perfect matchup against Misha Cirkunov, who has been knocked out in two of his last three contests. Cirkunov’s chin has failed him on multiple occasions, and it seemingly doesn’t stand a chance at holding up against a clean shot from a power striker like Walker. This matchup is extremely clear-cut. Walker is the striker and Cirkunov is the grappler. Each fighter has a distinct advantage over their opponent in their respective style, and I anticipate Walker finds his power shots prior to Cirkunov finding a takedown, specifically with his length. I see Walker ending this fight in the first round once again. The only real issue with him is that he only lands a few strikes because of his elite power, but that’s something we can look past when he continues to find first-round finishes.
Jason’s Reaction: While I do lean Walker to win this fight, I think Cirkunov makes for an interesting play in tournaments due to his finishing ability, as well as his should-be-low-ownership-percentage.
Jason’s Pick: Cody Garbrandt
No disrespect to Pedro Munhoz, but Cody Garbrandt is on a different level. The odds on this fight are entirely too close, but even Vegas recognizes Garbrandt’s ability to finish this fight with a +174 inside distance line. Much like the Johnny Walker and Misha Cirkunov bout, there are two distinct advantages for each fighter. Garbrandt is one of the best strikers in the entire UFC, and Munhoz is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Recently, Munhoz failed to keep John Dodson on the ground, and he ended up losing a decision. The results should be similar in this fight, but Garbrandt is far more aggressive than Dodson, and he possesses more knockout potential. After making Dominick Cruz look horrible on his feet, no one should deny the striking of Garbrandt. Garbrandt has never scored under 89 fantasy points in a win, so even in a decision, he should find value. After losing two fights in a row, both to TJ Dillashaw, Garbrandt desperately needs a win, and he should find it.
Justin’s Reaction: If you watch Garbrandt’s interview before this fight, he’s extremely calm and is actually friends with Munhoz. That’s an entirely different tone than his last three fights, two of which were basically emotional losses to T.J. Dillashaw. Garbrandt is also fully recovered from his back injury (or so he says), meaning we could see the best version of him. I absolutely love Munhoz and think he’s worth rostering in tournaments, but I see this ending with a Garbrandt knockout, as well.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Anthony Smith
I somewhat hate making this recommendation, but I wasn’t sure if Jason was going make it, and I feel we need to discuss it here. Does Anthony Smith deserve this title shot? Not particularly. Does he have the skillset to beat Jon Jones? Absolutely not. But that hasn’t stopped him from winning other fights. Smith generally isn’t as talented as his opponent, yet he’s 6-1 in his last seven fights, losing only to Thiago Santos, who is going to fight the winner for the light-heavyweight championship. Smith can take a ton of damage, and generally wears his opponent out from essentially being a punching bag. He also owns a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to go along with knockout power. I feel Jones has the technical prowess and cardio to stay out of danger against Smith. With that being said, there is a chance that Smith could potentially find a finish in this fight, although that chance is extremely low in my opinion. Smith does come with some value, though, as his ability to take damage will allow him to take this fight into the later rounds. He’s absurdly cheap and simply doesn’t need many fantasy points to hit value. Smith opens the door for virtually anything with your lineups, and this is a week where you want to stack the main event in cash games.
Jason’s Reaction: I was going to make this recommendation, and move Kamaru Usman into the mid-price range. Smith is a great option in tournaments this week because a lot of fantasy owners are going to roster Jones. If that happens, Diego Sanchez will likely be high owned, which opens up a ton of value for Mickey Gall (hence the recommendation). Add in the contrarian Usman, and we have ourselves a recipe for success!
Jason’s Pick: Kamaru Usman
In January of 2018, I tweeted “Hot take: [Kamaru Usman] is the best in that division. Future champion, and soon. Get over it. #UFCSTL #UFC” (see pinned tweet for proof). That tweet was met with quite a bit of backlash, particularly from someone that recently deleted his Twitter account (smart move, pal). His handle was @randystapes, so if anyone knows him, please let him know that after this Saturday, I own him. Anyway, back to the analysis: Usman is the better pressure fighter. Tyron Woodley is an extremely intelligent fighter, and he comes into each fight with the perfect gameplan. While it is not always fancy, it does work. However, Usman presents a unique challenge for Woodley, as he might be a better wrestler, and he is just as heavy-handed. These two fighters are virtually the same, as far as skill set and build is concerned, and Usman is going to pressure. Perhaps, I am slightly biased, but this fight should be much closer to even, and everyone I’ve talked to is all over Woodley, which opens up a TON of value for Usman. I’ll roster him in every single tournament lineup with no regrets.
Justin’s Reaction: I think people are underestimating Woodley because he had a few boring fights and then man-handled Darren Till, who wasn’t ready for that spot. With that being said, all in on Usman! We’ve loved him for years. His pressure is absurd. His cardio is absurd. His wrestling is absurd. His striking is getting better with each fight. Woodley likely has the wrestling to continuously get back up, and he has the power to end this fight with one strike. I think the major difference here will be cardio. If Usman can get this fight to the later rounds, the advantage has to shift towards him.
