High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Dominick Reyes
It’s tough to avoid Reyes on this slate, specifically in tournaments. This will certainly be a step up in competition for him, but he owns a 3-0 UFC record with three first round finishes. He is a powerful, active striker that loves pressuring his opponents. He gets a matchup against Ovince Saint Preux, who owns a 5-5 record over his last 10 fights. He also was essentially knocked out in his last fight against Tyson Pedro before winning with a submission. This fight is not going the distance, and it would be wise to get a piece of each fighter in different tournament lineups. I’m siding with Reyes, though, who appears to be “the next big thing” at light heavyweight. His aggression and power will be too much for OSP to overcome early in this fight.
Jason’s Reaction: I don’t mind playing Dominick Reyes in tournaments because of his upside, but he could very well lose this fight. Ovince Saint Preux is a huge step up in competition, and I like his price in tournaments better than that of Reyes.
Jason’s Pick: Vincente Luque
There is nothing fancy about this recommendation. Vincente Luque is the biggest favorite on the card by a lot, which is one of the reasons he is the best cash game option available this Saturday. Jalin Turner is making his UFC debut, and Luque is going to welcome him with a first or second round finish. Luque has the ability to knockout Turner on the feet, or submit him on the ground. In five of his last six fights, Luque posted over 100 fantasy points. There is almost no way that he loses this weekend, and in cash games, it is important to find winners. There is plenty of value to be had, as a lot of fights this weekend are going to be close contests. It should not be too difficult to roster Luque.
Justin’s Reaction: I love Luque in this spot, specifically in cash games. I’m not sure I’ll be paying his price tag in tournaments, but I’ll definitely pay up in cash for him.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Conor McGregor
It would be a shame if neither of us recommended McGregor on this card, right? In all honesty, I don’t love the mid-priced options for the most part this weekend. I do believe Khabib Nurmagomedov wins this fight, but we have to acknowledge McGregor is a live dog. He has proven the doubters wrong multiple times before, and Vegas actually has him winning via knockout as the most likely scenario – the odds are currently +180. We’ve seen McGregor continuously post 100+ fantasy points while fighting, even totaling 142 fantasy points in a five round fight against Nate Diaz. It isn’t often we get someone as good as McGregor as an underdog, and he a great option in all leagues this weekend.
Jason’s Reaction: I like stacking Conor McGregor and Khabib Murmagomedov in cash games, and McGregor can be used in tournaments, but, obviously, I think Nurmagomedov is the better option.
Jason’s Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov
Apologies to all the Conor McGregor supporters out there, but Khabib Nurmagomedov is the play this Saturday. In fact, he is the best option on the slate. Nurmagomedov has ridiculous takedown offense, and despite reports that suggest McGregor can wrestle with him, that just is not going to happen. Against Al Iaquinta, Nurmagomedov posted just under 150 fantasy points, but he did quite a bit of unnecessary striking. However, if he utilized his ground game, like he is going to have to in order to win this fight, he could see double-digit takedowns. His upside is incredible. Even McGregor does not possess this kind of upside for his price tag because if he wins, it will be a knockout. Please, pay up for Nurmagomedov. The McGregor era is over.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m also all over Nurmagomedov. I think this is a fight that can be stacked in cash games, but Nurmagomedov is my preferred option if I’m taking only one. He simply comes with unmatched upside for a low price tag because the line for this fight is rather close.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Tony Martin
Martin entered his UFC career with an 8-0 record before posting a 5-4 record since joining the organization. While his record is less than ideal, he has only truly lost to good competition. He gets another tough matchup this weekend against Ryan LaFlare, who has also only lost to high level competition in his career. The issue with LaFlare is that he has very little finishing potential, as he has not finished a fight since 2013. Martin, on the other hand, has tremendous submission prowess, winning eight of his fights by submission in his career. Martin’s finishing potential with a three round floor for a low price tag adds to his value. He may be an option better suited for cash games, but I also don’t mind him in tournaments because of his price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Tony Martin is definitely playable in cash games. In tournaments, there are better options, but it would be unwise to say that he can’t finish this fight via submission.
Jason’s Pick: Derrick Lewis
Derrick Lewis is liable to fall under the radar this weekend, but he is one of the better low-priced options based on his upside. In his last fight, which was a snoozefest against one of the most dangerous strikers in the heavyweight division, Lewis scored 40 fantasy points against Francis Ngannou. For some reason, Ngannou decided not to engage. Lewis, on the other hand, at least attempted to engage. For that reason, he won the fight. Luckily for fantasy owners, Lewis is generally a much more active striker. On top of that, he tends to find late-round knockouts. Alexander Volkov is no slouch, and he is on quite the winning streak, but he has not fought elite-level outside of Fabricio Werdum. Lewis is far from a sure bet, but at his price tag, he opens up quite a few possibilities for fantasy owners. He is much better suited for tournaments. Justin’s Reaction: Lewis is a very live dog on this card. His results have been undeniable, and he’s one of the best GPP options on this slate. I do have plenty of concerns about this matchup, though.
