UFC Vegas 43
Ketlen Vieira vs Meisha Tate
Women’s Bantamweight
It was great to see Meisha get back in the octagon this past July after 5 years away from the UFC prior to that. She got a nice stoppage win over the now retired Marion Reneau in the 3rd RD via TKO/KO (GNP). While Reneau was clearly at the end of her career, Tate answered a lot of questions about what her approach/conditioning would look like, and the return showed that her striking has improved, as her combos looked sharp as she pressed forward continuously applying pressure. She’s stated she wants to make a run at the title, and this next test will really start to set precedent on that. Vieira is in need of a win here. She’s 1-2 over her last 3, and this marks the first time since 2017 that she’s had more than one fight in a calendar year. Her last bout vs Yana Kunitskaya in February we saw her simply get out worked, even when she was able to get the TD’s, Yana found success off of her back and didn’t allow Vieira to get into too many opportunistic positions. And as a result, her total striking output was low and she didn’t do enough on the mat to make it matter. On the feet Vieira is a powerful striker, but won’t overwhelm with volume, her game plan centers around being successful in wrestling exchanges and everything she does on the feet is a means to close distance and get into the clinch. I’m not sure that approach will yield a positive result here though, because she generally had the edge with her size/strength in most of her dominant wins. Yana and now Tate, pretty much match her in that regard. Tate’s durability has never been a true concern, but Vieira hits hard, so she’ll have to be careful, especially given this is 5 RDs. I like Tate here, I think she’ll expose enough holes in Vieira’s gm throughout the fight that she’ll win minimum 3 RDs. It’s close though. Tate via decision is the pick.
PICK: Meisha Tate $17 FD ($8300 DK)
Ketlen Vieira $7900 DK
Sean Brady vs Michael Chiesa
Welterweight
I absolutely love this matchup. Grappler vs Grappler here. Brady has looked impressive to start his UFC stint, as he sits 4-0. Chiesa is a vet in the game and has been around awhile, his record for comparison is 11-5 in the UFC. Both these guys are ranked in the division, Brady sits at #14 and Chiesa is up at #6. Chiesa’s last outing saw him get caught and submitted by Vincente Luque in RD 1 back at UFC 265 in August. Chiesa had a few moments in that one where it looked like he had Luque dead in the water, but Luque escaped and turned things into his favor. But one thing, as in the past as well that Chiesa was able to do was use his physical advantage against his opponent being the bigger/longer fighter. He won’t necessarily be the bigger one here, because Brady has packed on a lot of muscle into his smaller frame, but he will be longer, and that will help him keep range while this is on the feet. Brady throws hard combinations and definitely has the advantage there if he can keep it there for one, and two, if he’s able to land with any consistency. Chiesa will have a 4” reach advantage. Early on, both these guys will try to set the pace, Chiesa looks to utilize his striking to force the clinch where he throws a lot of nasty shots before looking to change levels. Brady will use a slightly heavier kickboxing approach as a means to shoot for single or double leg takedowns. Brady is literally one of my fav fighters to watch in this division currently, but the experience and level of competition Chiesa has faced will be a big difference in this matchup. The value is amazing for the dog. I like Chiesa to at least get the decision. But I think he can find himself a sub.
PICK: Michael Chiesa $12 FD ($7300 DK)
Sean Brady $8900 DK
Kyung-Ho Kang vs Rani Yahya
Bantamweight
This one figures to potentially be another Grappler vs Grappler style matchup. There’s no secret what Yahya likes to do, and that’s get after the TDs and hunt for submissions. He’s a high level jiu jitsu wrestler who can get it done in many ways once things hit the mat. He starts fast and tries to crash the pocket, setting things up with low leg kicks and his striking so he can close distance and get to the clinch. Kang hasn’t seen UFC action since 2019, but is riding a 3 fight win streak. On the feet, he will be much more technical than Yahya and has some power in his striking. His movement will be much better too. His TDEF is what will be key here, he’s shown to have a really good TDEF, so the more he can tire Yahya out as he tries to shoot unsuccessfully, the better. Even if Yahya does find success early, as long as Kang survives the early onslaught of RD 1, he should start to takeover. His cardio is much better, and Yahya tends to fade as the fights go long. I could see a 3rd RD stoppage in favor of Kang here. He’ll do enough on the mat to avoid trouble early.
PICK: Kyung-Ho Kang $16 FD ($8200 DK)
Rani Yahya $8000 DK
Taila Santos vs Joanne Wood
Women’s Flyweight
Another matchmaking gem here. Calderwood is now just Wood after getting married here. Wood is coming off of a ‘close’ decision L to Lauren Murphy back in June at UFC 263. And if you ask me, she won that fight 29-28, but that’s neither here nor there. As a result, Murphy got the title shot against Shevchenko in September at UFC 266, and it once again proved war everyone already knows and that’s the clear gap this division has between Shevchenko and everyone else. Shevchenko and Nunes should just agree to fight once a year for the belt until they get tired of each other. I think had Wood won vs Murphy, she likely needed one more win to get the title shot. Now, she’s matched up with Santos, who’s now 3-1 in her UFC stint thus far. Santos is a powerful striker with great physical attributes and tends to use her physicality to overwhelm her opponents in wrestling exchanges. Wood has been taken down by opponents with less wrestling pedigree than Santos, so this one 100% depends on her keeping this upright. Because if she can, she’ll hold the edge in striking for sheer volume alone, and she’s shown enough durability that a fire fight seems like it could play in her favor. Despite that, I give the edge to Santos still, because I think she’ll find success getting TDs, and she’ll have enough with enough control time that she’ll get the decision. I do not think she’s a near 4 to 1 fav in this matchup though, and will certainly have shares of Wood.
PICK: Taila Santos $22 FD ($9200 DK)
Wood $7000 DK
Adrian Yanez vs Davey Grant
Bantamweight
Again, another display of good matchmaking here. Yanez has put on a show to start his UFC run and he sits 3-0 to start things. Grant has been around for some time now and sits 4-4 in the UFC. Before his last bout vs Marlon Vera, Grant was on a 3-fight win streak. 2 of which came by KO. He had an all out war vs Vera and Vera came away with the decision. Vera’s wrestling was too much to handle. Now he gets a much more willing participant in Yanez as far as the boxing is concerned. Yanez has a beautiful striking game, and is fine to be patient as he wears on his opponents. That’ll play into Grant’s game here, as he doesn’t mind baiting his opponents into eating some counter shots from him. Grant has a much more unorthodox approach to his style though. Neither guy has been KO’ed in their career, so it’s tough to call that possibility outright in this one. Yanez fights with his hands low so he could be playing with fire, as he ate some pretty decent shots from Randy Costa in his last bout before Costa started to gas and Yanez took over. Grant doesn’t figure to gas so early in this one. I’ve got Yanez winning a war after 3 RDs via decision.
PICK: Adrian Yanez $22 FD ($9100 DK)
Davey Grant $7100 DK
Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz
Featherweight
Sabatini gets back at it after an impressive heel hook win over Jamall Emmers in August and is now in the octagon for the 3rd time this calendar year. He was compared stylistically to the fighter he faced in his debut in Tristan Connelly, but a better version. Lutz made his debut back in May at UFC 262 with a win over Kevin Aguilar. Lutz showed off a well rounded skill set, he pressured well and mixed things up on the feet, and found success utilizing his TDs and changing levels. He gets a much stiffer test for his 2nd stint. Sabatini won’t throw a ton of volume, but when he does throw, he makes it count throwing with power. He’ll utilize that to set up changing levels to utilize his black belt in BJJ. He should be stronger between the two here, so I don’t think he’ll have too much trouble with control time once things do hit the mat. If Lutz is able to keep things standing, he’ll have the edge on the feet as far as volume is concerned, but would need to find success on the mat to have a shot here. I think Sabatini rag dolls him a bit on the mat and cruises to, at the least, a decision win, but he’s no stranger to finding subs.
PICK: Pat Sabatini $18 FD ($8700 FD)
Tucker Lutz $7500 DK
Rafa Garcia vs Natan Levy
Lightweight
Garcia hasn’t started his UFC campaign off on the right foot, he’s 0-2. He got a lot of buzz after a valiant short notice debut vs Nasrat Haqparast back in March of this year. As a result of that, bettors were on Garcia heavily in his follow up fight against Chris Gruetzemacher back in July and he flopped. He gassed horribly in that bout towards the end and his conditioning looked to be a great concern moving forward, was a stark contrast from his debut. What he has shown at least through his first two UFC fights is his durability and ability to get into a fire fight if necessary. On the other side, Levy is making his UFC debut here. Levy isn’t really incredible at any one thing, but he relies primarily on his wrestling. He’s a decent boxer, and if he presses forward with consistency, he should always have Garcia on the back foot. Both Haqparast and Gruetzemacher had success backing him up, which made him a counter striker, which is much less effective for Garcia because he NEEDS to be leading things, having to come back won’t end well on score cards for him. Levy will do enough in the wrestling that he should take over this fight. I find it extremely interesting that FD finds value in Levy whereas DK has the value on Garcia. The pick is Levy via decision.
PICK: Natan Levy $13 FD ($8500 DK)
Rafa Garcia $7700 DK
Lupita Godinez vs Lookboonmee
Women’s Strawweight
The pricing on both sites of this fight is OFF, I’ll start there. Godinez has been busy this year, this is her 3rd fight in less than 2 months. She’s coming off of a loss to Luana Carolina back in October. To me that loss wasn’t good, I don’t see Carlolina as someone who’ll make noise in this division by any stretch, and she was the more physically imposing fighter in that one, so it was a head scratcher. She generally finds success being the aggressor and having a clear wrestling advantage over her opponent. Looma won’t be an easy out as far as level changing goes, and Looma’s striking is much better than Godinez’s. If this stays on the feet for any extended periods of time, Looma is going to pick her apart with volume, and even when the clinch situations do happen, that’s no walk in the park for Godinez in those instances, Looma does well with her offensive approach in the clinch. I’ll be on the dog all day on this one. I like Looma to get the decision.
PICK: L. Lookboonme $11 FD ($7400 DK)
Lupita Godinez $8800 DK
Fares Ziam vs Terrance McKinney
Lightweight
Mr. T-Wrecks aka Terrance McKinney is back after an impressive debut on the big stage at UFC 263 back in June in just 7 seconds over Matt Frevola on short notice. There’s no secret, McKinney is a 1st RD fighter, as all but 1 of his wins has come inside the 1st RD. He looks to get after it early throwing big shots, and will occasionally change levels and utilize ground and pound. Ziam on the other side is almost polar opposite. He’s a very low volume counter striker who looks to take advantage of his opponents mistakes. That won’t have much success with a fighter like McKinney who’s looking to make a statement. If you’ve seen any of his interviews etc, you can tell after his near death experience that he wants to make the best of his opportunity in the UFC. I don’t see this one seeing the final horn one way or another. I like McKinney via 1st RD TKO/KO.
PICKS: T. McKinney $15 FD ($8400 DK)
Fares Ziam $7800 DK
Cody Durden vs Quileng Aori
Flyweight
Durden is off to 0-1-1 start to his UFC campaign after a tough submission L to Jimmy Flick in December of 2020. He had started things really well in that one and just had a lapse of judgement when he decided to give his arm to Flick. Beyond that though, Durden pressures really well and obviously looks to change levels and get things to the mat. Aori, is making his sophomore trip to the octagon after a banger of a debut vs Jeff Molina at UFC 261 in April. Even though he lost the bout, he showed a relentless pressuring approach and strings together combinations well. He also got a few TDs, albeit wasn’t able to do much with them, but the intent was there. He’s very well rounded and this should be another exciting matchup with Durden. Both guys like to come out fast. If Aori is able to dictate the wrestling exchanges in this one, I like him for the upset. He showed his durability in his debut to get hit hard and bounce back, Durden could very well do the same, but Aori won’t back down regardless. This is another spot where I’m taking the dog outright to get the win. Like Aori in a decision. He should have good output for fantasy too.
PICK: Quileng Aori $10 FD ($7600 DK)
Cody Durden $8600 DK
Sean Soriano vs Sha Yilan
Featherweight
This is Soriano’s second stint in the UFC, and he’s still yet to register a win. He’s 0-4 so far, so a loss here figures to be the end of the road yet again. His last 2 bouts came via submission L. He had been away for 5 years before returning last year to fight Christos Giagos in May. Yilan made his UFC debut back in May of this year vs Josh Culibao, and while it wasn’t successful, Yilan had a clear plan to try and utilize his wrestling to look for a sub. He was unsuccessful on 12 of his 14 attempts. That won’t get it done. Soriano’s level of competition has been much stiffer than Yilan’s, but I figure he’ll take the same approach, so this fight will be about how well Soriano can get back to his feet. Soriano will be the much better striker here, so his path to victory seems like it’s best suited on the feet. But to put it plainly, this is such an ugly bout to try and predict, both these guys are low level and anything can take place as a result. I’ll ride with Soriano to get it done, but don’t think I’ll have any shares of him at his price. You need a dominant performance or a finish for him to pay that off, and i don’t think he gets it. The pick is a decision win for Soriano.
PICK: Sean Soriano $21 FD ($9000 DK)
Sha Yilan $7200 DK
Luana Pinheiro vs Sam Hughes
Women’s Strawweight
Pinheiro is making her 2nd trip to the UFC octagon. Her first win came in an unfortunate circumstance and that was an illegal up-kick by Randa Markos in the first RD. But prior to that, she was controlling the fight with relative ease. She had notched 5 TDs on 6 attempts and was cruising. Now, she gets Hughes, who’s making her 3rd trip after starting off 0-2. Yet another tough test for her to deal with too. Hughes’ TDEF is borderline awful, and I don’t see her having success keeping this one standing. She’s tough, and won’t mind getting into a bit of a brawl, but outside of something shocking, she’s about to get manhandled by Pinheiro here. Pinheiro’s striking defense could be a concern against tougher competition down the road, but not here. I think Pinheiro does enough by the 2nd RD rolls around to where she finds a stoppage, whether via GNP or submission. She’s a safe pick this weekend. The pick is 2nd TKO/KO for Pinheiro.
PICK: Luana Pinheiro $23 FD ($9300 DK)
Sam Hughes $6900 DK
By: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
