UFC Vegas 44

Main Event

Rob Font vs Jose Aldo 

  Bantamweight

• What an excellent matchup play here. Font, has come on strong lately, and hasn’t lost a UFC fight since 2018. He’s on a 4 fight winning streak currently with his last win coming over Cody Gabrandt back in May of this year where he also had the main event slot. So the UFC clearly recognizes his talent, and he’s getting his shots to prove it. He has a legitimate shot at a title within the next calendar year if he continues staying active. He gets matched with none other than the legend Jose Aldo. Aldo moved down to bantamweight at the end of 2019, and challenged for the vacant bantamweight title last summer vs Petr Yan, after that loss, he’s bounced back nicely and is on a two fight win streak of his own. The move down to bantamweight has overall been a great move at this point in his career and this figures to be a kickboxing match for 5 RDs. Font, features some of the best boxing in this division, he’s got clean technical striking and strings together combinations well. And when needed, can fall back on a pretty strong wrestling gm. Aldo on the other side, is also an excellent striker, and uses fantastic leg kicks to switch things up. He loves the body kicks/shots, and will most certainly utilize it. He’s got terrific TDEF, so the few shots Font may take, may not go his way, so this should largely play out on the feet. The value on Aldo here is wonderful, and he’s the best live dog on the slate in my opinion, but I’m riding with the slight fav in Font. Font generally gets stronger as each RD passes, and we’ve all seen that Aldo’s durability holds up, so Font could rack up the striking stats over the course of 25mins.

PICK: Rob Font $20 ($8400 DK)

Jose Aldo $16 FD ($7800 DK)

 

Co Main Event

Rafael Fiziev vs Brad Riddell 

Lightweight

• Absolute banger in this one, both men are on 4 fight win streaks, with Riddell being undefeated in the UFC at 4-0. Fiziev dropped his debut fight, and sits 4-1. Riddell had his most impressive win during the summer at UFC 263 over Drew Dober. Dober is a good athlete with great power in his hands, and Riddell endured nicely, mixing up his offense well between his striking and his wrestling. Fiziev is just a fun fighter to watch and he looks to keep things standing. He’s an excellent striker with superb movement on the feet, he’ll get things started quickly with his pressure style striking mixing up his striking with leg kicks. In his last bout vs Bobby Green, Green turned the intensity up as the fight went long, and had he done that just a tad sooner in RD 2, he might’ve stolen a decision there. So it was a bit worrisome to see Fiziev slow down the way he did in that one, Green touched him at will in that 3rd RD, but his durability came through. Riddell, similar to Green, will turn up the pressure has fights go longer, so this one will come down to who wins RD 2 IMO, and if Riddell can somehow get a couple TDs, he could sway the judges opinion. The pricing of this fight on both sites makes it an excellent fight to target, although I think Riddell would score better in a win vs if Fiziev wins. IMO this has split decision written all over it, and I’m siding with the slight dog in Riddell to get the W. Should be an excellent fight.

PICK: Brad Riddell $15 ($7900 DK)

Rafael Fiziev $16 FD ($8300 DK)

 

Jimmy Crute vs Jamahal Hill 

 Light Heavyweight

• I thought the matchmaking here was done intentionally when I first saw in relation to both guys coming off of pretty gruesome looking injuries. Crute, fought the always tough Anthony Smith and suffered a leg/knee injury after a big leg kick from Smith, and he could barely walk afterwards. Hill, did what no one probably told him to do, and that was okay wreslting with the elite grappler Paul Craig, and he essentially gave him his arm for the taking, it was an extremely frustrating night. Craig literally popped Hill’s elbow joint out of socket/place, I thought it was much worse watching it happen live vs afterwards. Nonetheless, both of these guys are extremely talented and could make noise in this division. Hill’s strength comes on the back of his striking game, and when he can put it together, can find finishes. Crute on the other hand, is the much more well rounded fighter and has more tools with which to work. He’s proven durable enough that the striking exchanges shouldn’t hurt him early, but we’ve seen that if this game do get dicey on the feet, he’ll immediately go to old reliable which is his wrestling, and he generally finds success. Hill’s last bout was concerning for me, he did little to nothing to stop the attack once Craig got it where he wanted, and I see something similar happening here. Crute should have his way as soon as things hit the mat, he’ll wear on Hill and eventually find a submission win. I think he gets it RD 2.

PICK: Jimmy Crute $21 ($9200 DK)

Jamahal Hill $12 FD($7000 DK)

 

Leonardo Santos vs Clay Guida 

Lightweight

• The combined age in this fight is 80. Santos is 41 and Guida is 39. I applaud both men for competing at a high level still in this sport. Santos is coming off one of the most unfortunate losses in his career. He fought Grant Dawson at earlier this yr in March, and suffered a ground and pound KO with literally 1 second to spare in the fight, which I otherwise had him winning via decision 29-28. It went exactly as I saw it and Santos’ BJJ/TDEF was a major plus in the matchup with another strong grappler, but he left his face unprotected laying on his back, and Dawson went all out when he heard the 10 second warning to end the RD. He’s now matched with much less of a threat in Guida. Guida is coming off a loss to one of the best wrestlers in the division in Mark Madsen, which to mine and everyone’s surprise I’m sure, stayed almost strictly a kickboxing match. Madsen didn’t try to change levels really at all during the fight and would’ve had success otherwise IMO. I think he’ll see a similar approach in this one too, Santos, while one of the elite jiu jitsu fighters, won’t actively shoot for many TDs in this one, he’ll rely on his striking, which won’t be high volume. Guida will have the better striking output numbers, and so long as he can stay off his back should it hit the mat, I think he can squeak by with an ugly decision win. I think I’ll be avoiding this matchup in DFS.

PICK: Clay Guida $11 FD ($7400)

Leonardo Santos $20 FD ($8800 DK)

 

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis 

Middleweight

• I applaud Curtis for the quick turnaround here. He made his UFC debut on November 6th, and got an impressive RD 1 win over Phil Hawes. Now gets matched with an even stiffer test in his follow up match. Allen is an excellent grappler, and can find success against just about anyone in that regard, but he’s recently shown more of a willingness to stand and brawl with opponents on the feet, and his durability is wonderful. His last bout vs heavy hitting Puna Soriano showed that, I thought for sure someone was getting KO’ed in that one, and neither guy could do it. Curtis has nice movement and good striking skills, but I really don’t know that he has a path to victory in this one, especially with his low volume striking approach. Allen should control this fight wherever it takes place. Curtis would be wise to at least try and keep it standing, but I’m not sure his TDEF will hold up well. Allen will pressure forward early and get Curtis with his back to the cage, there is when I think he’ll try to work his level changes etc to hunt for submissions. Allen is the most expensive fighter on both sites, so you need a flawless performance that either finishes early, or has great volume etc if it doesn’t end RD 1. And I’m not sure if has that type performance to pay off his price. Cautiously optimistic in saying Allen finds the finish at some point in RD 3 here, I just think he has too many skills to not find it. But at his price, I probably stay away in DFS this go round.

PICK: Brendan Allen $23 ($9600 DK)

Chris Curtis $8 FD ($6600 DK)

 

Alex Morono vs Mickey Gall 

Welterweight

• Morono has been active in 2021. This makes his 3rd fight this year, and he’s looking to make it a 3 fight winning streak, after his most recent win came over David Zawada in September. Gall, is coming off of an impressive “upset” win over Jordan Williams back in July. Extreme emphasis on “upset” btw, as I have no idea why Williams was such a big fav over Gall. Gall had understandably showed cause for concern due to previous bouts, but Williams hadn’t beaten anyone notable and had questions in the way of his defense that should’ve made it closer. That’s neither here nor there, though. Morono is a vet in the game, and he’s as well rounded as they come. He’d prefer to keep things standing and turn it into a boxing match, but he’s also a good wrestler, he just has issues with his TDEF and against a fighter like Gall, that’s an issue, as Gall looks to chain wrestle once things hit the mat. Gall’s striking has improved a bit too, and he doesn’t mind being the aggressor, walking his opponents down. This fight comes down to Morono not getting taken down 5-6 times over the course of 3 RDs, if he keeps it standing, I like his striking just a tad more. However, I’m not confident at all he can keep it standing consistently enough for me. I think Gall squeaks out a decision here. Love the value, he’s better play on DK than he is FD though.

PICK: Mickey Gall $9 FD ($6700 DK)

Alex Morono $22 FD ($9500 DK)

Dusko Todorovic vs Maki Pitolo 

Middleweight

• Neither of these men have gotten off to the start you’d desire to start your UFC campaign, so each need a win badly, Pitolo more so than Todorovic. Pitolo is 1-4, having lost 3 straight, while Todorovic is 1-2 in the UFC. If Pitolo loses here, he most certainly probably gets cut, so I’d think “Cocunut Bombz” is extremely focused. Both guys feature heavy hands and can end it with some clean shots, but Todorovic never really dishes out the volume consistently to make that an issue, as he’s got a more counter heavy approach to his game. Todorovic has an issue with fighting with his hands low, and it makes for an easy target as a result. I expect Pitolo to push the pace a lot more in this one too, so Todorovic will have to be careful. Pitolo, has had issues with fighters being able to pressure him well and get him backing up consistently, I don’t think he’ll have that issue here, in fact, I think he’ll utilize his wrestling a good bit early, and should he find success, that’s where he’ll look to continuously take it. This one is close, and should make for an entertaining match. I give Pitolo the slight edge with just a little bit more to work with. I like him via decision.

PICK: Maki Pitolo $12 FD ($7600 DK)

Dusko Todorovic $18 FD ($8600 DK)

Manel Kape vs Z. Zhumagulov

Flyweight

• Kape got a much needed win over Ode Osbourne in his last bout with a beautifully timed flying knee at UFC 265 in August. Prior to that, he has started his UFC campaign off 0-2, and you could see after each loss how disappointed he was, especially with the hype he had coming in. Zhumagulov is coming off of an impressive submission win over Jerome Rivera at UFC 264 in July of this year. Which was his first win in the UFC as well, so both guys sit at 1-2. Kape, moves well on his feet, and has quick hands when throwing in the pocket, his issue comes with generally having a low volume approach, and in his first two bouts, you clearly saw that, he allowed his opponents to control the octagon mostly and was just a counter striker. In his most recent win, it was much of the same before the flying knee, so he has to get better there to get the judges on his side in close decisions. Zhumagulov is similar, in the fact that he has a low volume approach too, but mixes in his kickboxing much more than Kape will, and ideally would like to utilize his wrestling. Kape seems to have pretty good TDEF, so may be tough for him to change levels. Both guys are extremely talented, but this figures to be a slow grind for both, but I give the edge to Kape to find a way to pull ahead on the score cards. Zhumagulov has only been finished once over 19 professional fights, so would be hard to pick Kape via another splash finish here.

PICK: Manel Kape $22 FD ($9400 DK)

Z. Zhumagulov $8 FD ($6800 DK)

 

Bryan Barberena  vs Darian Weeks 

Welterweight

• Darian Weeks replaced Matt Brown on short notice here to take on Barberena. He’s making his UFC debut as well. Weeks is a good all around fighter, he’s got powerful hands and looks to throw that right hand, and also features good wrestling acumen, and can string together a variety of different TDs etc. Barberena on the other side of things is the vet here, and has faced much stiffer competition, so he has the advantage there already. He’s a striker, who tends to push pace and can deliver good volume. He can struggle a bit with his TDEF, so he’ll have to watch for that, but he’s been pretty good off of his back, so I don’t expect for it to stay there long if he does get taken down, his sweeps are elite and can turn a situation around in his favor quickly. The odds on this seem closer than it “should” be, especially given this short notice for Weeks. I understand Weeks is 5-0, but this is big step up for him. I like Barberena via decision. Should yield good fantasy stats etc too.

PICK: Bryan Barberena $17 FD ($8400 DK

Darian Weeks $14 FD ($7800 DK)

 

Cheyanne Vlismas vs Mal. Martin 

Women’s Strawweight

• Vlismas (formerly Buys, I assume she’s divorced from JP now, but haven’t seen anything concrete), got a big win her last time out which earned a performance of the night bonus with a KO win over Gloria de Paula. She features great movement on her feet, as she throws hard combos looking to get her opponent out of there. She gets Mallory Martin now who’s coming off of a submission loss to Polyana Viana. Martin’s strength is utilizing her wrestling game, she sets things up with pressure, however it’s generally not quick enough that she finds consistent success with it. Vlismas does have issues against strong grapplers when it comes to her TDEF, but her wrestling his sufficient enough that she should stay out of trouble once the fight does go there. Vlismas will pull away on the feet, so it’s in Martin’s best interest to keep this grounded as often as possible. It’s hard to see Vlismas as this now KO artist, but she’ll have another shot to do it here, I think she finds it in RD 3 to get another nice win.

PICK: Cheyanne Vlismas $20 ($9000 DK)

Mallory Martin $10 FD ($7200 DK)

 

Alonzo Menifield vs William Knight 

Light Heavyweight

• I’m really interested to see this bout. Knight, is coming off of a much needed KO win over Fabio Cherant. While Menifield is on a two fight win streak after securing a decision win over Ed Herman his last time out. Menifield has been a frustrating fighter to watch for me, solely because you see the potential is there for him to be a dominant force. He just doesn’t make the right decisions all the time. Just recently in his last bout vs Herman, there seemed to be a couple of moments where he had the chance to end it, but his reservations led him to be more conservative. It does appear however that he’s piecing things together. Knight, is still very raw to me, and just due to his physical acumen, he has insane power. Neither guy here throws with a ton of volume, but rather knockout level blows. Knight has a glaring weakness in his game right now too, and that’s his wrestling off of his back. Da Un Jung exposed him badly in their matchup. I could see Menifield taking advantage of that early to where him down. I love Menifield in this spot, he’s the more technical striker, but both offer similar in terms of power, so wouldn’t be surprised at all if Knight caught him with one. I think Menifield finds a way either via submission or standing to get the finish. I’ll say it comes RD 2.

PICK: Alonzo Menifield $17 FD ($8700 DK)

William Knight $13 FD ($7500 DK)

 

C. Puelles vs C. Gruetzemacher 

Lightweight

• Puelles pulled off the nice upset his last time out vs the strange fighter that is Jordan Leavitt. Puelles showed off his entire gm in that matchup, mixing things well on the feet between his technical striking and kickboxing, and also being able to get TDs against another strong wrestler. He gets matched with Gruetzemacher here, who’s coming off of an ‘upset’ win of sorts over Rafa Garcia. I don’t consider that a huge win by any stretch. Garcia seemed to be given the benefit of the doubt after an ‘impressive’ debut loss because of his resiliency, but that’s about it. Gruetzemacher is a striker, and that’s what he’s looking to do, pressure forward throwing in volume. He loves to get in the clinch and work the body. He won’t utilize any offensive wrestling, and his TDEF is pretty awful. So unless he sparks Puelles on the feet, or somehow scares him away from trying to grapple. This is a tough out for him. I think we’ll see 4-6 TDs from Puelles with some nice ground and pound. He’ll hunt for submissions and could find one, since 3 losses for Gruetzemacher have come via submission. Puelles is another strong play for DK especially due to the ground control time. He could be sneakily good on FD too if he can find the finish. I’m playing him on both at his price. I’m picking Puelles via decision though, Gruetzemacher always seems to make things interesting.

PICK: Claudio Puelles $16 FD ($8000 DK)

Chris Gruetzemacher $15 FD ($8200 DK)

 

Louis Smolka vs Vince Morales

Bantamweight

• Morales is coming off of a much needed win over Drako Rodriguez back in August at UFC 265, and from what I remember that fight was not exciting at all, neither guy really packed power in their striking, was more just peppering his opponent with strikes. Smolka, hasn’t fought this year, his last bout came almost exactly a year ago when he scored a 2nd RD KO win over Jose Quinonez. Smolka mixes things up well on the feet, he’s going to pressure forward putting together combinations while also utilizing his kickboxing taking shots to the body. His front kick is probably the one most utilized by him.   This matchup should be pretty winnable for Smolka here, he’s the harder puncher and will have quicker movement on the feet. He also mixes in his TDs throughout. Morales TDEF isn’t great either, so Smolka should find relative success there. I feel like this is a good opportunity for Smolka to get a streak going, he’s better everywhere this goes. I’m not confident in him finding a finish, but do think this has sneaky chance to have good fantasy output from him. The pick is Smolka via decision.

PICK: Louis Smolka $17 FD ($8500 DK)

Vince Morales $13 FD ($7700 DK)

 

by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)