UFC Vegas 46
Main Event
Giga Chikadze vs Calvin Kattar
Featherweight
- Despite the rest of the card not being as fun as this fight, this is a great way to start the year as far as main events go. Chikadze has started his UFC career off 7-0 and looking to make another statement as he pushes towards a title run. If he notches a win here, they probably give him 1 more fight before a title. On the flip side, the same goes Kattar, a win here could mean a title shot next. As far as the matchup goes, this should be a striking masterpiece on both ends. Chikadze generally uses his long frame to keep distance and throw devastating leg kicks while mixing up his striking. Whereas Kattar is all volume all the time and lacks defensive awareness as a result. He looks to pressure forward putting together combinations etc. He lands roughly 5 SS/M, but absorbs an insane 8 SS/M. We know he’s as tough as all get out, but against someone with Chikadze’s stopping power, you can’t do that. This one is tougher to pick than the odds suggest however. I still like Chikadze to get it done, I feel like he can do enough in the first 3 RDs that should this go the distance, he takes a decision. This is a fight to take a chance on stacking just due to overall output from both fighters.
PICK: Giga Chikadze $22 FD ($9300 DK)
Calvin Kattar $14 FD ($6900 DK)
Co Main Event
Jake Collier vs Chase Sherman
Heavyweight
- Neither one of these guys will be in title contention any time soon, so this just makes for an interesting matchup between two guys needing a win. Sherman’s 2021 campaign didn’t go as expected and is on a two fight losing streak. While Collier also dropped his last fight via decision. Both guys are volume strikers and neither of them look to change levels to take it to the mat, so this should play out mostly on the feet. Collier dishes out roughly 5.5 SS/M and absorbs 4.4 SS/M, while Sherman dishes out about 6.2 SS/M and absorbs just as much at around 6.3 SS/M. Between the two, Colliers movement is better, which allows him to get in and out of the pocket slightly quicker, which should lead him to more success in this matchup. It’ll be a close one, but I like Collier to get back in the win column putting up SS numbers just north of 100+.
PICK: Jake Collier $16 FD ($8500 DK)
Chase Sherman $15 FD ($7700 DK)
Brandon Royval vs R Bontorin
Flyweight
- I don’t know why this fight wasn’t Co Main, it’s easily the second best fight on the card, nonetheless lets dive in. For a short period of time, Royval was looked at as a guy who was on the fast track to a title shot after highlight finishes over Tim Elliot & Kai Kara France. But then he got matched with the now current champ, Brandon Moreno and that ended in short order in the 1st RD, putting a slight halt to the hype. Then he got another subsequent tough matchup vs Alexandre Pantoja, which also resulted in him being finished, this time by submission. Which caused concern as to what his ceiling could be. He has all the tools, he just needs to put it together. His striking is improving, and with his fast starts, it’s a must he continues getting better in that department. He’s got great grappling skills and can find a sub. Bontorin is another exciting fighter, and has more power in his hands. He has slightly better chain wrestling IMO, but will still need to be careful when things get to the ground. I think this fight finishes before we see a 3rd, and I like Royval to get it done.
PICK: Brandon Royval $19 FD ($8800 DK)
Rogerio Bontorin $12 FD ($7400 DK)
K. Chookagian vs Jennifer Maia
Women’s Flyweight
- This is a rematch of a fight that took place in 2019 where Chookagian took it via decision. I’m not sure what prompted a rematch here because I see it playing out in the same way the 1st one did. Neither woman will actively look to change levels, so this one will stay on the feet mostly. It would benefit Maia to get it there just due to the height/reach disparity, but I don’ know if she’ll find much success there, so her best hope is to get inside the guard of Chookagian and outbox her, which will be hard to do. Chookagian has 5 inches in height and a 4 inch reach advantage, so she’ll look to keep distance and utilize her boxing. Maia should focus more on using her kickboxing as a means to kick start her offense and she’d find more success IMO, but that’s easier said than done. As stated, I think this plays out how the first one did, and that’s with Chookagian getting out to a lead early and coasting to a decision. The worry here is not knowing how much output she’ll dish out for DFS purposes, it could be low scoring.
PICK: K. Chookagian $18 FD ($8900 DK)
Jennifer Maia $11 FD ($7300 DK)
V. Borshchev vs Dakota Bush
Lightweight
- Borshchev is making his debut here. He’s a talented fighter, he offers great power, good kickboxing that he utilizes to setup his offense and pretty good cardio. He struggles when in wrestling exchanges, especially off of his back, so he’ll look to keep things standing. Bush, is coming off of a loss vs Austin Hubbard. He’s a decent striker and doesn’t mind getting into brawls, he looks to pressure forward to mix in all levels of his offense which includes trying to get it to the mat. In this matchup, that would do wonders for him, it’s just a matter of getting in close range without taking big damage in order to do it. Borschchev will keep distance pretty well with his striking, so as long as he keeps it there for the majority, he at the least walks away with a clear decision win, but has the power to end it early. I’m being cautiously optimistic with this one and say he gets it done via decision.
PICK: V. Borschchev $20 FD ($9000 DK)
Dakota Bush $10 FD ($7200 DK)
Joanderson Brito vs Bill Algeo
Featherweight
- Another exciting debutant here in Brito. His most recent stint was on Contender Series, now he’s getting his shot. He’s a good overall fighter and mixes things up well. Decent striking power, and is a really good wrestler, and that’s something of important in this matchup because Algeo has been taken down at least twice in each of his UFC fights. Brito will likely find success with that early. Algeo is a good overall fighter too, he pressures forward well and looks to utilize volume in his striking and kickboxing. He has good wrestling, but generally spends his time on his back defensive wrestling as opposed to offensive, that’s probably something we’ll see again in this matchup. Brito is unproven obviously, but he has all the tools to take this one. I think he does it in style and finds a finish in RD 2.
PICK: Joanderson Brito $17 FD ($8600 DK)
Bill Algeo $13 FD ($7600 DK)
Joseph Holmes vs Jamie Pickett
Middleweight
- Yet another debutant here with Holmes, another Contender Series alum. This dude gets after it, he moves extremely well on his feet and he utilizes heavy leg kicks with good boxing. He pressures well and if he gets your back against the cage will look to change levels and work his wrestling game. Pickett, has been less than stellar to this point in his UFC career, he has all the physical attributes to be dominant, he just doesn’t have the fight IQ at times to know when to take over fights. He’s a technical striker with good power, and does well on the mat with top control in his wrestling. This appears to have the makings of a fight that stays on the feet though, and I just think with Holmes’ aggression, he dominates there. Maybe Pickett will put it together finally and look great from start to finish, but I’m not betting on it. I think Holmes gets a big dominant win to start his UFC tenure via TKO/KO in the 2nd.
PICK: Joseph Holmes $17 FD ($8600 DK)
Jamie Pickett $13 FD ($7600 DK)
Court McGee vs Ramiz Brahimaj
Welterweight
- Vet vs prospect matchup here. McGee has been around the organization for awhile now and is coming off of a win over Claudio Silva. Silva had a relentless approach he simply just gassed himself out and couldn’t get it done. McGee is one of those old school tough guys in the octagon these days. He’s got all the fundamentals and is an all around good fighter, but he’s 37 now, and eventually time catches everyone and we’ve seen flashes with him in recent bouts. Brahimaj is only 29 and the much fresher fighter here. Brahimaj’s bread and butter is wrestling/grappling, and he got back to that in his last bout vs Sasha Palanikov. His striking is improving, but I doubt he sits there and tries to box anyone out exclusively from here on out. McGee will try to pressure forward early, so most shots from Brahimaj will be counter shots. This fight likely goes the distance because it’s just tough to finish a guy like McGee, so RDs 2 & 3 are most important for Brahimaj, if he’s having success with TDs and control time etc, then it’ll be a breeze, but if not, could see a split decision scenario. I think he gets the job done though being the more active fighter here.
PICK: Ramiz Brahimaj $15 FD ($7900 DK)
Court McGee $16 FD ($8300 DK)
Brian Kelleher vs Kevin Croom
Featherweight
- Kelleher went from pretty sizable underdog to big favorite after getting a late replacement fighter in Croom. As far as pricing is concerned between FD & DK. FD waits until late in the week to add their contest, whereas DK adds there’s pretty much a week in advance and they very rarely adjust a fighters price, so Kelleher is an extreme discount on DK. He’ll garner HIGH ownership on DK as he should. Boom Kelleher is a guy who fights with grit and carries fight ending power in his hands. He stays low as he presses forward throwing big one two combos looking to get the fight to the mat. He’s a really good grappler and tries to look for that arm-head choke as quickly as possible. He’s got to be careful against Croom though, Croom is wild and pushes an extreme pace early until he burns his gas tank essentially. His striking is decent, he’ll spend most of his time trying to get Kelleher to the mat, and I don’t think he’ll have much success. He’ll likely burn his gas tank again and get finished as a result. I think it comes RD 2. Again, Kelleher is a slam dunk play for DK at his price.
PICK: Brian Kelleher $23 FD ($7500 DK)
Kevin Croom $8 FD ($6700 DK)
TJ Brown vs Charles Rosa
Lightweight
- Another situation here where the pricing on DK for this fight is a gift no matter which side you choose because of a late replacement. Brown was slated to fight Gabriel Benitez and was a sizable underdog in that matchup. He now gets a much more favorable fight with Rosa. Rosa is a guy who tends to get in dog fights, he’s got decent striking, but uses his kickboxing to set up his offense as a means to either get in the clinch and shoot for TDs, or try to get trips etc. Brown is the much more technical striker here, and his cardio is well enough that he can keep the pace for 3 RDs. We saw in Rosa’s last bout he started to gas once things hit late 2nd RD. This fight will be determined by how much Brown can stay off of his back, he should be physically stronger between them, but not being in those situations much at all will do the most help. I think he’ll even have advantageous situations in the wrestling/grappling himself. Brown should jump out to a lead with his striking early which should set the pace. I think he takes it via decision.
PICK: TJ Brown $21 FD ($7100 DK)
Charles Rosa $9 FD ($6800 DK)
by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
Best of luck to you all!
