UFC Vegas 45
Main Event
Chris Daukaus vs Derrick Lewis
Heavyweight
- What an opportunity for Daukaus here. He’s on a 4 fight win streak, all via KO, 3 of the 4 have come 1st RD. He’s got fast hands with power and moves well on his feet. He generally pressures well early and can overwhelm his opponents. This go round he’ll have to be careful though, as Derrick Lewis probably has one of the best stopping powers in the UFC. Lewis is a one trick pony and everyone knows what to look for. Lewis can sometimes be sneaky with his approach and therefore finds a way to land clean. All he needs to do is land one flush and it’s the beginning of the end. His last bout vs Cyril Gane showed though that you clearly need to have more skills to compete consistently at a high level. Daukaus presents the skills needed to be pick Lewis apart, and I think he finds yet another KO win. But given Lewis’ power, he’s always a live dog, he just needs to land the shot early to hit value. The pick is Daukaus via KO.
PICK: Chris Daukaus $20 FD ($8300 DK)
Derrick Lewis $17 FD ($7900 DK)
Co Main Event
S. Thompson vs B. Muhammad
Welterweight
- Wonderboy has had mixed results over the last few years, he’s 2-3 over his last 5 dating back to 2018. His last bout vs Gilbert Burns saw him not be able to use his karate style approach against the grappling prowess of Burns. Some figured Thompson had one last shot at getting a title, but that seems far fetched at this point. It seems his opponent here, Muhammad, has more of an opportunity at a title than he. Muhammad is on a 4 fight win streak, and has looked better each time out. His last bout was against the aging Demian Maia whose wrestling approach didn’t have the affect it once had. So it was a lower volume fight for Muhammad due to him having to constantly defend the TDs, he was successful in defending 20 of the 21 attempts from Maia. Muhammad had good offensive wrestling when needed, but likely won’t have too much success here, as Wonderboy’s TDEF is generally pretty good, he just got an elite grappling opponent his last time out. This should play out on the feet, in which case it favors Thompson, he just be able to keep range and dish out more volume. Muhammad throws hard leg kicks though, so he’ll have to be mindful there and not eat too many big shots. This should be a striking affair for 15mins, in which case I like Thompson.
PICK: S. Thompson $21 FD ($9100 DK)
Belal Muhammad $7100 DK
Amanda Lemos vs Angela Hill
Women’s Strawweight
- Lemos is looking to continue to make a statement in this division. She’s had back to back KO wins, and looks to make it a 3rd. Hill has had up and down results over the last couple years, but one thing is for sure is she isn’t backing down to anyone. She looks to pressure and put together combinations in the pocket. The issue here is, she’s fighting someone now who has real KO power. Lemos is a dominant all around fighter. She can generally use her length to keep range as she puts together a pressuring striking game. Hill’s striking defense leaves much to be desired, and I don’t see how she’ll be able to keep Lemos from landing flush. That should be trouble, and I think Lemos gets another stoppage win, I’ll say towards the end of RD 1.
PICK: Amanda Lemos $23 FD ($9500 DK)
Angela Hill $8 FD ($6700 DK)
Ricky Simon vs R. Assuncao
Bantamweight
- Assuncao isn’t what he once was, he’s slowed down a bit over the years. His last fight was a KO loss to the hands of Cody Gabrandt, and we’ve seen the recent results from Gabrandt after that. Assuncao is a low volume striker, and will utilize his kickboxing to try and set things up. He’d likely prefer to get his wrestling going, but he’s got a stiff test in that regard. Simon, is on a 3 fight win streak, looking to make it 4. He’s a relentless fighter when it comes to looking for TDs and submissions. He’s averaged 7 TDs over his last 3 bouts. His striking is improving, and he should even be better there vs Assuncao. I’m not sure how he doesn’t win this bout, he should rag doll Assuncao, potentially finding a submission. I love him as a play on DK, just due to all the grappling activity/control he should be able to maintain etc. The pick is Simon via 2nd RD submission.
PICK: Ricky Simon $21 FD ($9200 DK)
Assuncao $10 FD ($7000 DK)
Mateusz Gamrot vs Diego Ferreira
Lightweight
- This is a really good matchup. Gamrot, has started his UFC campaign off at 2-1, while CDF is a vet in the gm and has a record of 8-4. CDF is coming off of a bad last camp, he didn’t seem to really prepare hisself and came in over 4.5lbs, that’s a big miss. This go round, he took things much more serious and came in at 156lbs. CDF is a great striker with good power, he overall mixes up his offense well and throws leg kicks etc to the body/legs of his opponents to try and set things up. He also looks to change levels at times to utilize his wrestling. In his last bout with Gregor Gillespie, the pace was so high to start, that he burned himself out when the 2nd RD hit and Gillespie took over. That was a product of his conditioning. Gamrot, is a nice up and coming prospect. He got a submission win over Jeremy Stephens in his last bout earlier this year. And he’s looking to build off of that to work towards cracking the top 15. Gamrot is a former KSW two-division champ, so the level of competition served him well making his way to the UFC. Gamrot is a very skilled striker with KO power, and his wrestling is solid, so this figures to be a tough test for both guys here. CDF likely tries to set pace in this one, just as he did in his last, so he’ll need to avoid the big counter striking from Gamrot. I figure if CDF can be the aggressor in the wrestling exchanges, it could be enough to steal two rounds from the judges. I love the value here, so I’m riding with the dog via decision.
PICK: CDF $13 FD ($7700 DK)
M. Gamrot $17 FD ($8500 DK)
Cub Swanson vs Darren Elkins
Featherweight
- Two vets in the gm squaring off here. Elkins, is trying to make it 3 in a row after he got the best of Derrick Minner his last time out. Elkins is a brawler, he likes to make it dirty and the faster it gets there, it seems like the better for him. He’s got decent striking and he looks to outwrestle you. If he can get a dominant top position, his ground and pound could have you in trouble. Swanson, on the other side, is coming off of his first KO loss in more than 10 years at the hands of Giga Chikadze. That’s nothing to look down on though, Giga is on the rise and will get a title shot within the next calendar year at this rate. Before that though, Cub showed he still has it, even at 38yrs old. His striking is beautiful when he puts it together. He looks to put together combinations, and his power can cause trouble. At some point this fight will take place on the mat, and it’ll be Swanson’s ability to stay off his back for long periods that’ll determine it. Swanson should be able to do enough damage on the feet, that by the later parts of the 2nd RD, Elkins will probably be using his wrestling as a means to avoid damage more than anything. I think Swanson wears him down, and finds a 3rd RD stoppage as a result.
PICK: Cub Swanson $18 FD ($8800 DK)
D. Elkins $7400 DK
G. Meerschaert vs D. Stoltzfus
Middleweight
- Not a great start to Stoltzfus’ UFC tenure. He sits 0-2, and gets another tough task to try and pick up his first UFC win. Stoltzfus is a patient technical striker, who never dishes out a ton of volume, instead looks to utilize power to try and get his opponent out. His wrestling is decent, but he hasn’t been given any favors with his first 3 opponents in that regard, all have much better wrestling than he, and that’ll show its head again here. Gerald is looking to make it 3 in a row, after scoring two sub wins earlier this year. One vs Makhmud Muradov in August, and the other over Bartosz Fabinski earlier in April. Gerald looks to try and close distance using his striking, before he backs you up to the cage looking to clinch so that he can change levels. It’ll be a similar approach here. He should be able to get good ground control as he’ll work to find another sub here. I think he gets it RD 2.
PICK: G. Meerschaert $20 FD ($9000 DK)
Stoltzfus $10 FD ($7200 DK)
Justin Tafa vs Henry Hunsucker
Heavyweight
- Both these guys need a win here, especially Tafa, Tafa has started his UFC campaign off at just 1-3, while Hunsucker is 0-1. Tafa only had 3 professional fights total before he got his call to the UFC. He’s still a promising prospect, even if his record doesn’t reflect it. He’s got solid hand speed, he just doesn’t move his feet very much, he stays somewhat stationary if the other guy is trading with him. He lets his power do the talking. Hunsucker, suffered a KO loss in just 49 seconds of his debut vs Tai Tuivasa who has been a KO machine recently. Tape suggest Hunsucker is willing to throw in the pocket as well, but I’m not sure how I see his UFC campaign playing out. Regardless of who wins this one, I don’t think we see all 3 RDs. I like Tafa to get it done RD 1 via KO.
PICK: Justin Tafa $22 FD ($9400 DK)
Hunsucker $8 FD ($6800 DK)
Sijara Eubanks vs Melissa Gatto
Women’s Flyweight
- Interesting matchup here, and early signs point to Gatto being a DFS fav today as a value play. Here’s where I get different from the field. While Gatto impressed in her debut, showing good striking to go along with nice wrestling. Her tape prior to UFC entry showed several close matches against lesser competition. Even her debut opponent, Victoria Leonardo, wasn’t someone to be hyped to get a win over. She showed great skill, don’t get me wrong, but stepping up to Sarj seems like a task in itself. Eubanks wants to get gold someday, and at this point there’s no going back, so she needs to string together wins and fast. She has power in her striking, but will probably be behind on the total striking numbers if it stays standing for too long. Sarj should be able to use her strength to her advantage here, and if she can get top control, should be able to put a beating on Gatto. I don’t know that many believe Sarj will win even though odds are in her favor, let alone get a stoppage here. But I can see it, it just has to come via ground and pound or even finding herself a submission. Sarj does begin to gas as tights go long, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on if this sees a 3rd. But I’ve got Sarj via 2nd RD stoppage.
PICK: Sijara Eubanks $16 FD ($8700 DK)
M. Gatto $14 FD ($7500 DK)
Charles Jourdain vs Andre Ewell
Featherweight
- This should be a very entertaining striker vs striker matchup. Ewell is moving up to Featherweight for this one, so should be interesting to see how he fares. He’s coming off of back to back losses, so he needs this one. He’s got good movement, and at his best can put together combinations with a little power behind it. He gets a tall task against a tough prospect in Jourdain. Jourdain’s has mixed results in his UFC tenure, but if he can ever put it altogether, he could make a run. He moves extremely well on his feet, and he’s a technical striker with good power. He utilizes his kickboxing very well and ultimately wants to keep it standing. He’ll be at a 7’ reach disadvantage, but should have the speed to get in and out of the pocket. Ewell could surprise here, but the pick is for Jourdain to get a 2nd RD KO.
PICK: C. Jourdain $19 FD ($8900 DK)
Andre Ewell $11 FD ($7300 DK)
R. Pennington vs M. Chiasson
Women’s Featherweight
- This should be another close one for Pennington. Macy took the fight on short notice (10 days), and missed weight by 3.5lbs as a result. Can’t really fault fighters when that happens, but it always makes me weary about their conditioning going into the fight if they try to make such a hard cut in a short period of time. I believe she was trying to lose about 15lbs and couldn’t quite get there. Chiasson is talented, and generally has the longer frame and can keep distance etc better when setting things up. She has good striking, and her wrestling is also solid when she can get top control. Her TDEF is suspect, so I figure Pennington will have some success there. Pennington’s last win was a close one, and honestly I didn’t see it in her favor just baprely, but my personal opinions don’t matter there. Pennington is a vet, and has been around the gm long enough that this fight would be Chiasson’s biggest win to date if she could get it vs if Pennington were to win. Pennington showcases good striking and likes to get to the clinch to control her opponents. If she can get it to the mat, she has nice ground and pound and does well with top control. This seems like another match where Pennington finds a way to gut it out and take a decision. I like her more as a play on DK vs on FD.
PICK: R. Pennington $17 FD ($8400 DK)
M. Chiasson $14 FD ($7800 DK)
Don’Tale Mayes vs J. Parisian
Heavyweight
- This fight is pretty straight forward in my opinion. These are two big guys that like to throw leather. Parisian is likely to pressure forward early, but his gas tank likely becomes an issue again if this sees a 3rd RD. Mayes, IMO, had been extremely disappointing to this point. He has all the physical tools to me a dominant heavyweight if he can put it altogether, but he’s been entirely too timid to find that success. Mayes has more power in his punches between the two here, and over the long haul of this fight, that’ll figure to pay dividends landing the more impactful shots. Neither guy will go after any type of offensive wrestling intentionally. So this should see 15mins of action on the feet. Not sure I like this fight a ton for DFS because I don’t see either man KO’ing the other, but you never know with heavyweights. I think Mayes gets the decision win.
PICK: Don’Tale Mayes $19 FD ($8600 DK)
J. Parisian $11 FD ($7600 DK)
Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Sayles
Lightweight
- the ever so strange Jordan Leavitt gets back to it. His last bout vs Claudio Puelles exposed that if a fighter has any type of solid offensive/defensive wrestling, he can be beaten. And Puelles did just that, rendering Leavitt essentially one dimensional. Leavitt tries to quickly get things to the mat in unorthodox ways to work his wrestling looking for the submission. But this matchup is grappler vs striker, because Sayles doesn’t prefer to exchange with someone in the grappling department. He will have the much better striking to go along with the power, and he’ll need to land early and often to try and keep Leavitt from shooting for the TD. Leavitt is deceptively strong, and Sayles struggles with good grapplers, but I think he’ll be able to keep it standing enough throughout that the damage he’ll cause in the striking should be enough to get the decision at the least, he could surprise with a finish. The pricing suggest this as a toss up, which is exactly what it is, so be cautious. This one should be relevant on DK more so than FD for Leavitt if he can get it going. But I like Sayles striking to be the difference for the decision.
PICK: Matt Sayles $16 FD ($8000 DK)
J. Leavitt $16 FD ($8200 DK)
