UFC 304
Main Event
Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad
Welterweight
This rematch was inevitable after the way the first meeting ended, was just hard to say where each would be at this point in their careers. At the time, everyone was chasing their chance to fight Usman. Muhammad accepted the first meeting on short notice with hopes to have the signature win a bit earlier. Ended with a bad eye poke Muhammad received and it was declared a NC. Up to that point, Edwards had already found his groove, and in all honesty, was probably going to find a finish. This is a complete reset though, both have improved since the 1st meeting. Hard to believe it’s been over 3yrs since that meeting, but since, Belal has reeled off 5 straight wins against the divisions best, while Edwards claimed the title, and has defended it twice in that same time frame. Edwards is still a bit underrated to me, and I think it’s because his style of fighting isn’t very crowd pleasing. He’s very technical, won’t often get in brawls, and doesn’t mind being a counter striker when needed. His kickboxing skills are really impressive, he loves mixing up his kicks from his southpaw stance, it’s the kick that won him the belt in spectacular fashion. Belal is less accurate on the feet, but that’ll happen when you’re constantly on the offense like he is. He wants to get forward pressure going early, so that he can ultimately shoot for TDs. He pretty much averages 2 TDs per 15mins (1.98). Edwards TDEF is solid though, and has improved a bit over the years. I do think this fight will be closer than odds suggest, but I also realize that if Belal isn’t getting TDs consistently with control, he’s likely not winning this fight. He’s worth a shot at a discount for DFS, but I have to side with the champ, he won’t get out-struck, and for the most part he should keep it standing. Edwards is a better FD play than DK, don’t envision Edwards proactively choosing to wrestle, and a finish could possibly be later in the match, but still lean that this goes to decision. ANNNDDDDDD STILLLLLLLLL
PICK: Leon Edwards $20 FD ($8800 DK)
Belal Muhammad $15 FD ($7400 DK)
Co Main Event
Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes
Heavyweight
I personally would’ve swapped this bout to ME just due to the guaranteed fireworks this fight will produce. It’s for the interim heavyweight title, so that may have been the reasoning behind it. Their first meeting didn’t end how anyone would want, by way of injury to Aspinall’s knee. Which honestly was a blessing in disguise for him, he had previously stated that he had always had problems with it, just didn’t want to do surgery because it would take him away from the octagon, he’s come back better than ever, with wins over Tybura and Pavlovich. Blaydes has won 4 of his last 5, the loss being to Pavlovich. For Blaydes’ game plan to work, he was to be the better wrestler in the matchup, and honestly that wasn’t the case in his most recent outing vs Almeida, Almeida just made a crucial mistake exposing the side of his head on a single leg and Blaydes took advantage, but he was getting cooked prior. His hope in this matchup is his chin holding up, and finding immediate success with TDs and control, hoping to wear Aspinall down. I do not think that happens, Aspinall is what I like to call an alien, he’s the brightest prospect at HW since Jones was in his prime, IMO. And a win here could set up a super fight vs Jones for the belt, but I doubt that happens. If Jones beats Stipe in November (supposedly), I think he retires. The word is that he’s been running from the Aspinall matchup, and I don’t blame him. If this is 5yrs ago, different story. As far as this matchup is concerned though, Aspinall’s hands are too fast, too powerful, and he’s too talented as a grappler in his own right. It will get ugly fast. He’s a free space in DFS today, he should be 100% owned and he won’t, so there’s the win for everybody. Give me Aspinall via 1st RD KO/TKO.
ANDDDDDDDD NEWWWWWWW
PICK: Tom Aspinall $23 FD ($9400 DK)
Curtis Blaydes $14 FD ($6800 DK)
Paddy Pimblett vs King Green
Lightweight
I think this is the most anticipated fight of the night. There’s been a lot of jawing back and forth between these two for months, now they settle it. Paddy is undefeated so far in his UFC tenure, with a questionable win over Jared Gordon, and that likely being his biggest named win, others were essentially layups. Now gets what would be the biggest win in his career if he can get by Green. Green has been one of the steadiest competitors in this division for awhile now, always gives some of the divisions best prospects trouble. He’s won 3 of his last 5. 2 of which were to have beens, in Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson. Greens movement/approach to striking on the feet is always a choice, because he fights with his hands down 90% of the time, which makes it harder to read where his strikes are coming from. That got him in trouble fast vs Jalin Turner, in what was probably a late stoppage. But all things considered, Greene is really well rounded, it’s just considering the fact his chin isn’t what it used to be, and it’s largely been masked by favorable opponents recently. He’ll be 38 soon, so that figures to happen. On the feet though, his output is great, lands 6.45 SS/m (absorbs 3.75 SS/m), while Paddy lands 5.1 SS/m (absorbs 3.7 SS/m). Both these guys lack defensive awareness when striking, but if I’m choosing whose chin holds up, it’s Paddy. Neither guy is powerful, more so death by accumulation. We’ll see if it comes to fruition, but Paddy claimed he was the much better grappler than Green, and I agree, but have to see if he can get the TD, his entries aren’t the best, he more so gets trips/clinch work TDs. The crowd is going to go absolutely nuts when Paddy comes out, they will play a factor in this matchup one way or the other. I’m taking the younger/fresher athlete on what will be pretty much home turf for him, in a close bout, that ends with Paddy locking up a RNC in RD 3. Love him as DFS play of course at a very minimal price. He’ll be highly owned, so there is an advantage to taking Green if you’d like, but wouldn’t go there personally.
PICK: Paddy Pimblett $15 FD ($8000 DK)
King Green $16 FD ($8200 DK)
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight
I’m really excited to see this bout. CLD has won 3 of 4 since being in the UFC. While Robocop has won 4 of his last 5. He’s won 2 in a row since the bizarre 1st RD KO loss to Ferreira. I was concerned his chin was gone after that, but the subsequent wins were nice to see. Robocop is really well rounded, he has powerful striking, and really solid BJJ. The biggest critique for him is lack of head movement on the feet. He’s landing 6 SS/m (while absorbing 5.3 SS/m). CLD is really athletic, and uses movement on the feet really well to utilize his kickboxing. Not a one punch power type of guy, but if he’s landing consistently and can find the target, he can put you out. He’ll likely be blasting away at the lead leg of Robocop to try and slow him down. He’s more of a technical striker, and lands nearly 6 SS/m (5.96)(while absorbing just 3.8 SS/m). The trouble for him will come in defending TDs, he’s only got 50% TDEF, and Robocop averages nearly 3 TDs per 15mins (2.5). Fight IQ will be a factor, because if I’m Robocop, I’m trying to close distance and get it grounded as quickly as possible. It’s not like he doesn’t stand a chance on the feet, but the earlier the better for CLD to find a KO. Needs to wear on him. I think he’ll do just that, he’ll test the grappling early, and I honestly think he can find a submission in RD 2 after wearing on him a bit. Definitely want to target this fight either way, because I think if CLD wins, it’s because he finds a finish, Robocop has more tools to grind a decision win with slightly more upside. I’ll take the discount on Robocop all day.
PICK: Gregory Rodrigues $14 FD ($7900 DK)
CLD $15 FD ($8300 DK)
Arnold Allen vs Giga Chikadze
Featherweight
Another interesting matchup on this card. Allen burst onto the scene of potential title challenger when he went absolutely wild vs Hooker leading up to the finish. Since then, he’s lost 2 straight, and the win over Kattar was due to injury, so hard to really know where he’s at. He’s a pretty decent fighter overall, not great at anything, just does enough right. All things considered he’s a patient striker, and will take his time and opt for the more technical approach when it boils down. He lands just 3.3 SS/m (absorbs 2.9 SS/m), while Giga lands 4 SS/m (absorbs 3.4 SS/m). Giga is the better kickboxer in this one, he has that patented ‘Giga kick’ that he lands from Southpaw, which makes this bout interesting with Allen being orthodox primarily, the liver shot won’t be there for a good portion, but if he somehow gets Allen to switch stance, Allen could find himself in trouble. Allen’s approach here should be to get this fight grounded as much as he can, it’s not really his game plan, but he does average 1 TD per 15mins. Giga’s TDEF is decent (69%), so could be opportunities there. If not for that, if you ask me in a pure kickboxing affair who I think holds the edge in this one, I think I take Giga 8/10 times. Neither is really powerful, I just trust the increased activity/talent of Giga more. So I am 100% taking the big discount on this one, in hopes Allen brings a little more volume, which in turn will bring more out of Giga. Love the odds this goes to a decision either way. Don’t like the price on Allen here, so it’ll be dog or pass.
PICK: Giga Chikadze $12 FD ($7200 DK)
Arnold Allen $18 FD ($9000 DK)
Nathaniel Wood vs Daniel Pineda
Featherweight
Another homecoming fight for Wood. He’s had a solid break since his last outing to regroup. If he can put it all together, I think he has a shot to be a potential title contender. Even more so if he ever decides to drop to bantamweight. Most guys he fights at FW will hold a size edge on him. Beyond that he’s really well rounded, he likes to close distance and get his hands going. He’ll set that up with heavy leg kicks. And it hasn’t been seen much in recent bouts, but he’s really talented as a wrestler too, he averages 1.7 TDs per 15mins, essentially 2. As this fight extends, that could prove big if he goes there. Pineda is 38yrs old now, he’s not getting better. Pineda is most dangerous early, best as a grappler, he’s also averaging 1.7 TDs per 15mins. Wood’s TDEF is better than Pineda’s though, so we’ll see who holds the edge. This is a sneaky fight DFS wise, I do think Wood wins at a pretty high clip with relative ease, just boys down to his output and overall game plan. A late finish is possible after Pineda’s cardio has suffered. Think we may see a 3rd RD TKO. Risky play but could prove worth it using a lower owned Woods in comparison to fighters around him similarly priced.
PICK: Nathaniel Wood $22 FD ($9500 DK)
Daniel Pineda $9 FD ($6700 DK)
Molly McCann vs Bruna Brasil
Women’s Strawweight
Another crowd pleaser with Molly Meatball. The crowd will go nuts when she walks out. She won’t be a title challenger by any means, but given certain matchups, she can thrive. She’s won 3 of her last 5. Brasil is 2-2 to start her UFC tenure, having alternated wins/losses. Molly will be aggressive out the gate, Brasil’s reaction to it will determine how long this last. Neither woman has good defensive striking and leave themselves susceptible to big shots, but Brasil isn’t that powerful. She has more of a slow/technical approach to her striking. She would be best served as a wrestler here using her size edge to try and hold Molly captive off her back. She won’t threaten submissions though, which would do Molly favors in that scenario. This boils down to Molly actually finishing the fight from a DFS outlook, her volume will be there no matter. Any outcome is viable here, early finish, is obviously most beneficial at her price. WMMA is tough to gauge, so I’ll be lower on her today than most other favorable matchups she has. Will say she finds her way to a 2nd RD finish via TKO from ground and pound.
PICK: Molly McCann $19 FD ($9200 DK)
Bruna Brasil $11 FD ($7000 DK)
Caolan Loughran vs Jake Hadley
Bantamweight
Hadley stepped up on short notice to take this one. He missed weight by 1lb, so the fight is now at Catchweight. This is another bout with pretty middle tier level fights at best. Hadley has lost 3 of his last 5, and Loughran has split his first 2 UFC bouts and sits at 1-1 to start. This is going to be a high pace fight, which’ll favor Loughran as this fight progresses. Loughran lands 6.2 SS/m (absorbs 5.7 SS/m), while Hadley is much more measured, and probably the better boxer, lands 3.3 SS/m (absorbs 3.5 SS/m). Hadley’s biggest downfall is against committed wrestlers, his TDEF is awful (35%). Loughran averages 2.5 TDs per 15mins. That will certainly be apart of his game plan, factor in the weight miss of Hadley, and one would have to think he’ll use that to his advantage. For some reason I feel like this fight will go overlooked, and it’s one of my favs to target on the slate. I just like Loughran’s approach, he’ll pressure forward and have constant activity. Neither has been finished, so durability won’t be much of an issue. Think Loughran gets it done via unanimous decision. He’s a better play on DK than FD with potential ground control time etc.
PICK: Caolan Loughran $18 FD ($8700 DK)
Jake Hadley $12 FD ($7500 DK)
Modestas Bukauskas vs Marcin Prachnio
Light Heavyweight
Such a ‘meh’ fight. This very likely plays out as a kickboxing duel and will come down to who can get ahead. Marcin will be heavy on the low leg kicks early and often, that’ll do him some good trying to limit the power shots of Modestas coming back at him. Marcin should have more output, he’s landing 5.6 SS/m (absorbs 3.3 SS/m). What Modestas lacks with volume he tries to make up with power. He lands just 3.2 SS/m (absorbs 3.8 SS/m). Modestas will pressure forward looking to throw big 1-2 combinations. Marvin will counter and try to exit to whichever side is vulnerable. Just a really lackluster fight to watch. You’re depending on a finish for either guy, a decision likely doesn’t score well for either. There’s an edge to this fight because it’ll be sub 15% owned probably total, but definitely individually. I think the power of Modestas wins this one, he’ll be able to inflict more damage.
PICK: Modestas Bukauskas $17 FD ($8500 DK)
Marcin Prachnio $13 FD ($7700 DK)
Preston Parsons vs Oban Elliott
Welterweight
This should be a fun one. Elliot’s chance to try and perform well in front of the home crowd for the first time while being in the UFC, while Parsons tries to put a win streak together. He’s 2-2 in the UFC thus far, and has alternated wins/losses, his last bout was a win over Matthew Semelsberger, which was a pretty solid win for him. He has a strong wrestling base, and averages over 4 TDs per 15mins (4.3), with nearly as many submission attempts (3.1). He’s got pretty good striking too, averages just shy of 4 SS/m (3.8). Elliott is a tough scraper, is the best way to describe him. I don’t particularly think he’s really good at one thing, but he does well mixing up his attacks. He likes to shoot for TDs etc, averages 3.5 per 15mins. But Parsons TDEF is really solid, so should prove challenging for him to find success there. His last bout was a war with Val Woodburn in a fight he should’ve finished. That tells you enough right there. Parsons should be better every step of the way in this one. Think he has a chance for a late submission after Elliott slows down a bit. I’ll say RD 3 submission win. Feel like people will look at Elliott’s performance last time out without much context and will decide to plug him in, so I think he’ll be higher owned than Parsons, which I like. Parsons is one of my fav plays today. Activity will be high and he’ll always look for the finish if he has it.
PICK: Preston Parsons $16 FD ($8600 DK)
Oban Elliott $13 FD ($7600 DK)
Muhammad Mokaev vs Manel Kape
Flyweight
This fight got moved down drastically. Was once on the main card, now just a few fights into the prelims. Mokaev has remained undefeated to this point, has had some interesting moments along the way, and if he can get this done, will be the biggest win he’s had to this point. From a level of comp standpoint, you could give the edge slightly to Kape. This is a striker vs grappler matchup, and will come down to who’s most successful at either one. Mokaev has literally no striking power, he’ll never threaten there, so if Kape can keep it standing for most of it, he’ll be able to get ahead potentially with damage. He’s registered a KD in about 4-5 straight fights. Kape lands 5.1 SS/m (absorbs 4.5 SS/m), while Mokaev lands just 1.5 SS/m (absorbs 1.3 SS/m). That due to his average of 5.7 TDs per 15mins. Mokaev claims that he’ll put on a show to get his opportunity at earning another contract, but I find it hard to believe he deviates much from his game plan. Kape’s TDEF is pretty decent, but he does struggle with solid grapplers, so if it gets there, will be interesting. I’ve gone back and forth with this one. It has split decision written all over it. And for really the first time, I do not like a Muhammad Mokaev fight, this is one of the worst on the card IMO, so I’m hoping to see high ownership from it. Think it’ll be a staring contest early before any real action. I suppose I have to pick a winner, and I’ll side with Mokaev until proven otherwise, he’ll get just enough clinch work/TDs that gives him the edge. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if it goes the other way.
PICK: Muhammad Mokaev $16 FD ($8400 DK)
Manel Kape $13 FD ($7800 DK)
Sam Patterson vs Kiefer Crosbie
Welterweight
So long as Patterson is in this division, he’ll always be a massive WW, standing at 6’3”. He bounced back from a disastrous debut with a big submission win over Lainesse. He gets another favorable matchup with Crosbie, who has extremely questionable cardio and whose BJJ isn’t really good at all. In a perfect scenario, Crosbie is a bit better in the striking department, and Patterson doesn’t really offer much head movement, so that would be his opening. If he doesn’t land the big shot, Patterson should find himself shooting for TDs. Averages just over 1 per 15mins, but should this extend past RD 1, that average will go up. Minimum 1 per RD. Patterson’s striking leaves much to be desired, but anything he’ll do on the feet today will be just to close distance. If Crosbie can defend TDs, this’ll get interesting, but I eventually see Patterson able to secure TDs and finding his way to the back for a RNC submission win in RD 2. Another sneaky play to take advantage of, don’t envision people being crazy to roster him today.
PICK: Sam Patterson $21 FD ($9300 DK)
Kiefer Crosbie $10 FD ($6900 DK)
Mick Parkin vs Lukasz Brzeski
Heavyweight
One of two big boy fights on the card. Parkin still remains undefeated. Trains with the likes of Tom Aspinall and that camp. I don’t envision any sort of title run, but Parkin should be able to handle the lower tier fighters of this division. Brzeski was 100% screwed over in his bout with Buday, he won that fight. But beyond that, has been very underwhelming, not urgent enough at all when he should be. Both guys will throw heat for as long as it last, but cardio favors Parkin. Parkin lands 4.54 SS/m (absorbs 3.9 SS/m), while Brzeski lands 4.7 SS/m (absorbs just 3.1 SS/m). Parkin is a bit more technical, but it should be close on the feet early on. Where Parkin should take advantage of this matchup is through his wrestling, he averages nearly 2 TDs per 15mins (1.6), and Brzeski’s TDEF is awful (36%). If he realizes that success early, his DK score could be sneaky, but I’m not confident he goes that route. What I am confident in is him winning RD 3 should we see one, to this point, he’s not lost RD 3 on any judges scorecard at any point in the UFC. That’s impressive. So all he needs to do is bank 1 of the 1st two RDs. I’ll be passing on this fight, but this is another win for Parkin via unanimous decision.
PICK: Mick Parkin $19 FD ($9100 DK)
Lukasz Brzeki $11 FD ($7100 DK)
Shauna Bannon vs Alice Ardelean
Women’s Strawweight
Glad we’re getting this fight out the way early. Don’t have a strong read either way if I’m being honest. Neither really belongs in the UFC. Ban on lost her debut to Bruna Brasil. Ardelean is taking this on short notice. This feels like a spot where the UFC wants to try and get Bannon a win. She should be better on the feet, but Ardelean likely better in the wrestling/grappling. In WMMA I’ll most likely always side with the better grappler, especially if there’s no real striking power coming from the other way. So this is a dog or pass slot. Give me Ardelean.
PICK: Alice Ardelean $12 FD ($7300 DK)
Shauna Bannon $17 FD ($8900 DK)
By: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
ADDITIONAL PRIZEPICK PLAYS
Arnold Allen Over 35.5 Significant Strikes (discount)
Christian Leroy Duncan Over 9.0 FT
Tom Aspinall Less 5.5 FT
Shauna Bannon Less 79.5 FS
