UFC 300

Main Event

Jamahal Hill vs Alex Pereira

Light Heavyweight Title

What an absolutely stacked card from top to bottom. Add in the fact that Dana raised the fight bonuses for this card to $300K, and we’re in for extreme violence all night. Capped off by this LHW title bout. Pereira came in to the UFC to literally torment Adesanya, he in fact did that, taking the MW crown from him before subsequently losing the rematch about a year ago. After that bout, he made the switch the LHW full time. Picked up 2 big wins over Blachowicz and Prochazka to set the stage for this one with Hill. Pereira is one of the best kickboxers in the world IMO, and his power is second to none. With a nickname like ‘Poatan’, which translates to ‘stone hands’, it makes sense. He’s very patient for the most part, and manages distance very well. Chops away at the legs with low calf kicks primarily to try and slow his opponents movement. That sets up his hands where he throws with fight ending intentions. He lands 5 SS/m (absorbs 3.6 SS/m). That number is a bit inflated to what he actually lands though cause it bases it on average total fight time and his is just a bit over 2 RDs. Hill comes into this one on a 4 fight win streak, with wins over pretty solid names, most recent 2 were clearly beyond their prime, but wins are wins. Hill is well rounded, his grappling isn’t ever really a factor, nor is offensive wrestling in general, but he showed solid skill vs Glover when he was taken down in that bout. I highly doubt Pereira shoots for TDs at any point though, if any wrestling exchanges occur, it’s likely at the lead of Hill. Hill will pressure early and often in this one. He throws with reckless abandon at times, but his chin has held up to this point. Neither guy here really does a good job with head movement in the pocket, so someone is bound to get caught. There’s a bit of pause with Hill after the Achilles injury, because the general consensus is a person never comes back 100% after that. I’m still siding with Hill though, seemingly the better chin, and we’ve seen Pereira get flatlined at MW. Calling for 3rd RD KO/TKO for Hill. Would definitely target this fight in DFS. ANDDDDDD NEWWWWWW

PICK: Jamahal Hill $17 FD ($7900 DK)

Alex Pereira $19 FD ($8300 DK)

 

Co Main Event

Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan

Women’s Strawweight Title

The women’s SW crown is on the line. Have to admit, the 2 losses Weili suffered to Rose seem just extremely out of the ordinary, not to take anything away from Rose, but still feels like she’s better than her everywhere, and if there was a rematch now, don’t think it’d be nearly as close. The subsequent 3 fight win streak Weili has been on since those bouts have been dominant, just makes me wonder. Now she’s matched with Xiaonan, who’s won 2 in a row, that essentially set her up for this chance to pretty much switch things up in this division. Xiaonan is going a bit overlooked in this spot, she’ll make it interesting, at least early on. She’s got really solid striking with some power, and her wrestling is decent. She doesn’t often shoot for TDs herself, but has that in her back pocket. And while I do think this won’t be an immediate show of dominance for Weili, I think, given the amount of time here, it’ll head in that direction. I’m reminded of the bout Xiaonan had with Esparza, and how easy it was for Esparza to maintain top control before that fight was stopped due to ground and pound damage. Weili’s activity is overwhelming, especially in those moments. So long as Weili doesn’t get caught with something fluky early, she should take over eventually, and if it looks anything like her bout with Lemos last time out, she’ll be optimal. If doing ME, take 5% chance on Xiaonan, but nothing more than that. She’ll prob come in around 10% owned overall. AND STILLLLLLLL

PICK: Zhang Weili $23 FD ($9200 DK)

Yan Xiaonan $9 FD ($7000 DK)

 

Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway

Lightweight

BMF Title

This is probably the people’s Main Event. 3 5 RD’ers makes for a beautiful night of fights. Holloway makes the return back to LW for the first time since his war with Poirier back in 2019. I expect this fight to resemble that one in a lot of aspects. Poirier had more power and was able to do more damage as a result. Difference here being the fact that Gaethje likely won’t be implementing any form of offensive wrestling/grappling at any point to change the pace in this one, although he is a pretty solid wrestler in his own right. Holloways TDEF is really solid anyway, so I don’t know that he’d have much success. Both these guys throw leather for 15+ mins, however long they’re in there, with whoever. Gaethje’s head kick KO over Poirier his last time out was impressive. Was a combination of skill obviously, and I do think just overall attrition with Poirier due to age/damage he’s taken over the years. In this matchup, youth is on Holloway’s side, Gaethje turns 36 this year, Holloway will be 33. Gaethje hasn’t shown signs of regression yet by any means, but you generally don’t see it until it randomly happens. Don’t necessarily think that’ll be here, but what I am wondering is if his cardio suffers a bit more as we hit championship RDs in this one, because it inevitably will at least go 4 RDs. Gaethje lands 7.3 SS/m (absorbs 7.5 SS/m), while Holloway lands 7.1 SS/m (absorbs 4.75 SS/m). Damage shows much easier on Holloway, but he is more defensively responsible than Gaethje. Gaethje will blast leg kicks early I’d assume to try and stop the pressure from Holloway. He needs to effectively enter Holloway’s range. This is going to be a CLOSE fight, and I’m taking the chance that Gaethje will slow down slightly more late in this one for Holloway to steal the last RD to win a split decision. I’m playing both sides for sure. But give me the discount on one of the best boxers in the UFC.

PICK: Max Holloway $16 FD ($7400 DK)

Justin Gaethje $18 FD ($8800 DK)

 

Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveira

Lightweight

When it’s all said and done, no matter what you think of him, Oliveira will go down as one of the greatest LW’s of all time. Prior to his fight with Islam, he had won 11 straight fights that included the LW belt. Felt pretty inevitable the result of the Islam fight though, Islam will go down as one of the greatest LW’s ever too, when it’s all said and done. The Nurmagomedov tree runs deep. Oliveira wants the rematch, and a win here all but certainly gives it to him. Arman was on his way to a title fight at some point last year probably if not for the hiccup against Gamrot, in what was a REALLY close fight, that I thought he should’ve won, honestly. But he’s extremely well rounded, his bread and butter is through his wrestling/grappling, and being dominant in top control. He’s averaging over 3 TDs per 15mins (3.4). He should have success there if he can manage it, as Oliveira’s TDEF is awful (55%), but he’s also one of the best BJJ practitioners in the gm, and he doesn’t mind being on his back, he just can’t expect to keep it there long term, Arman won’t mind a lay and pray win in this one I’m sure. Oliveira’s chute box nature will serve him well again though. Arman was absolutely cracked by Joaquim Silva and was almost upset there, but perfect circumstance followed that sequence and was able to clinch. Oliveira has such good power seemingly every time he lands, and although he himself gets dropped pretty frequently, he always recovers pretty quickly. Could see that scenario again playing out here, Arman cracks him with a hard overhand right in the 1st, drops him, plays in his guard allowing him to recover, then Oliveira comes back in RD 2 with his pressure, eventually landing a shot of his own that drops Arman where he gets the ground and pound stoppage. Not betting against Oliveira with anybody other than Islam until proven otherwise.

PICK: Charles Oliveira $12 FD ($7500 DK)

Arman Tsarukyan $17 FD ($8700 DK)

 

Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage

Middleweight

I’m literally not writing much about this one. The only thing I fear is Brundage pulling the same crap he did vs Malkoun and milking any questionable shot from Nickal. The UFC clearly thinks highly of Nickal, as he opens the main card over former champions on the prelims. He won’t get the benefit of the doubt next time if he fumbles here. However, I do not think that’s the case. He has power, high fight IQ, and easily probably top 3 grappling skills in the division. He’ll make it another quick stop with Brundage. Should find the shot on the feet to get Brundage grounded, before his grappling takes over. RD 1 submission on deck. He really only pays off his tag if he gets 60 second bonus. Because otherwise there won’t be a ton of volume with much else. Easy pick though, safe for cash and GPP’s.

PICK: Bo Nickal $24 FD ($9500 DK)

Cody Brundage $7 FD ($6700 DK)

 

Aleksandar Rakic vs Jiri Prochazka

Light Heavyweight

What a fight this could turn out to be. Rakic is still pretty highly touted, and looked at as potential title challenger, but he’s coming off nearly 2yr layoff after the injury he suffered in the Blachowicz fight. Not sure how timid he’ll come out in this one, he likes to throw heavy leg kicks, but I’m not sure he does that as often here, the mental aspect after coming back from something like that is always a factor. He’d be wise to try and utilize his wrestling early, he averages less than 1 TD per 15mins (.82), but would serve him well. Jiri’s unorthodox style is a blessing and a curse, he carries his hands really low in the pocket, but makes up for it with the awkward head movement etc. Jiri will apply constant forward pressure in this one, so will be interesting to see how Rakic deals with it. He’s more of a slower paced technical striker than a brawler. Rakic has been rocked several times in bouts and doesn’t respond well to them when he’s hurt. Jiri will cause all sorts of problems in this one, and I think he finds his shot in RD 2 to get the KO/TKO win. Rakic stands less of a chance at finish, so his path would feel like winning a decision, and I don’t see that happening either, as Jiri should land more damaging shots.

PICK: Jiri Prochazka $14 FD ($8000 DK)

Aleksandar Rakic $16 FD ($8200 DK)

 

Aljamain Sterling vs Calvin Kattar

Featherweight

After the loss of his BW title vs O’Malley last time out, Sterling is making his presumed full time switch to the FW division. Clearly advantageous from a weight cutting perspective, time will tell how much impact the O’Malley KO had on him though, had never really had chin issues. Kattar is another fighter coming back after a brutal injury, so there’s been some time off, on top of the fact he just turned 36 a few weeks ago. He’s still one of the most talented strikers in the division, and if this is primarily a standup affair, you’d think the power/striking edge goes to Kattar. Sterling will certainly hold the volume edge, but he has yet to record a KD in the UFC to this point. Sterling is clearly best served as a wrestler/grappler, but the trouble is wondering if he’ll be able to successfully get TDs. Kattar’s TDEF is really solid (91%), and Sterling’s TD accuracy is just 24%, pretty awful entries at times. If I had faith in Sterling’s wrestling approach this would be an easy answer, but I don’t and therefore have more faith in Kattar that I probably shouldn’t to pull an upset. I still think Sterling pulls it out, he’ll stay safe on the outside just chipping away with his striking enough to get the win. I don’t really like this for DFS today, one of the few I think go to a decision, would be dog or pass spot.

PICK: Aljamain Sterling $16 FD ($8400 DK)

Calvin Kattar $11 FD ($7800 DK)

 

Kayla Harrison vs Holly Holm

Women’s Bantamweight

Harrison is making her long awaited UFC debut, there was much concern over her making weight for this and she did. Pretty ironic she waits until post Nunes to make this happen. Holm is former champion, but hard to believe she’s still fighting, she’ll be 43yrs old this year, you just don’t see that much in any sport. This could be a retirement fight for her going out on such a big stage. Her paths to victory these days are keeping fighters clinched against the cage while peppering them with short strikes. If she can get the TD, really the same formula. That just won’t cut it here in this matchup. Harrison will hold all physical advantages, and she’ll be the stronger grappler/fighter in the clinch no matter, in all likelihood. She has more power in her striking , and should outlast Holm in the cardio department should this one get deep. I do think that Kayla eventually finds a TD in the 2nd that will lead her to nasty elbow strikes that get her the TKO win in her debut over a legend. Like everyone, she’ll be looking to make the statement for that bonus.

PICK: Kayla Harrison $21 FD ($9300 DK)

Holly Holm $8 FD ($6900 DK)

 

Diego Lopes vs Sodiq Yusuff

Featherweight

Man I love this matchup. About to find out if Lopes does really have what it takes to get things moving in the right direction for him. Yusuff is a tough out, really well rounded fighter. his fight with Barboza was a CLASSIC. Looked like he was about to finish him in the 1st RD, Barboza weathered the storm, fought back and took over. Yusuff showed extreme grit in that one, was impressed by that. On the feet, Yusuff probably holds the edge here in terms of technique and defensive awarenesses, but Lopes holds the edge on the mat in grappling by a wide margin, and just generally with being dynamic, finding spectacular ways to finish a fight. Lopes has some power in his hands that will be trouble for Yusuff. Yusuff needs to keep this a kickboxing match for as long as he can manage, if he’s able to do that, his chances increase greatly. For a guy like Yusuff to have success vs Lopes, he needs to apply constant pressure, show off the heavy leg kicks and slow Lopes’ forward movement down. If he can do that, the upset is right there. However, I love Lopes, I think he’s the real deal, I think he’ll find his shot on the feet that stuns Yusuff, to which he’ll follow up by getting it on the mat for the submission win in RD 1. One of my fav plays today.

PICK: Diego Lopes $15 FD ($8500 DK)

Sodiq Yusuff $15 FD ($7700 DK)

 

Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano

Lightweight

Really a striker vs grappler dynamic in this one. Turner bounced back nicely in his last one after the brutal KO stoppage over Bobby Green, prior to that, suffered a disappointing L to Dan Hooker in a fight he surely should’ve won. There were weight cut issues that week I remember and it showed. Moicano has won 4 of his last 5, most recently over Drew Dober in a fight that was an absolute war dominated by his grappling. I think he holds the edge in a pure grappling match here too, the issue is getting him there and keeping him there. Turner’s grappling isn’t half bad though, he did spend extensive amounts of time on his back vs Gamrot though. His TDEF is 75%, but Moicano being near 50% with his TD accuracy is much more impressive, he actually has solid entries/attempts. As long as Turner keeps this standing, the better it is for him, Moicano is outmatched there with technique and power. Turner holds 5” edge in reach. I’m very weary of this one from DFS outlook, Turner could go in and absolutely starch Moicano early and be more than be worth his price, but if RD 1 is prolonged with Moicano success on the mat, it dampers his ceiling. Think Turner eventually finds his shot, but much later in the fight, late 2nd or 3rd. Anything better is obviously welcomed but I just don’t know that I’ll take that chance. Dog or pass for me here probably.

PICK: Jalin Turner $18 FD ($8900 DK)

Renato Moicano $10 FD ($7300 DK)

 

Jessica Andrade vs Marina Rodriguez

Women’s Strawweight

This one should be good. Both ladies still striving for title contention. Andrade picked up a big win her last time out after being on a 3 fight skid, thought she was washed and done with, but her power was too much for Dern. Rodriguez picked up a win after needing one her last time out too vs Waterson-Gomez. I’m not a huge fan of this one for DFS today, reason being, both ladies rely on power, and don’t mind a slower paced striking match as a result. So this could be sort of a stale mate for the first 5mins, which is enough for me to be much less intrigued by it. Both are pretty technical, but would give true power edge to Andrade. From a precision standpoint, I think Rodriguez holds that edge. Either one of them could catch the other in and exchange, but I think Andrade will lean more on her wrestling/grappling in this one that’ll really give her that edge. Think she gets it done late via submission or grinds out the decision.

PICK: Jessica Andrade $14 FD ($8100 DK)

Marina Rodriguez $13 FD ($8100 DK)

 

Bobby Green vs Jim Miller

Lightweight

Here we go, the narrative fight. Miller fought at UFC 100 & 200, won both fights, was determined to fight here, and I think it could be his retirement fight, if not, maybe one more fight max. He’s never really been more than a stepping stone for contenders, but he’s always had a really well rounded skill set. He’s powerful and can put anyone’s lights out, and he can also mix it well on the mat with his wrestling/grappling. Pretty similar career for Green, never really been a title contender, just a dog of a fighter that mixes it up well. In a perfect scenario, Green holds clear edge on the feet in terms of volume, but Miller has power edge. Same could be said on opposite end, where Miller holds grappling edge. These guys won’t go in here looking to stare at each other, they’re going to bang. And I love this narrative of the win for Miller to cap off the trilogy. On top of that, feels like Green is coming back entirely too soon from that brutal KO loss to Turner. Give me the dog here. Will be decently owned probably, but may need him in the end.

PICK: Jim Miller $12 FD ($7600 DK)

Bobby Green $15 FD ($8600 DK)

 

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt

Bantamweight

Goes to show the level of talent on this card of a former champ with multiple defenses of a title is opening the card. Fig made the move to BW his last fight out vs Rob Font and made it look easy, he’s just so technical and has fight ending power. Garbrandt is a talented fighter in his own right, he’s not in any way what he once was, which was a fight finisher with a much better chin. He’s had a much different approach his last couple times out, he hasn’t been much of a brawler. More so a technical striker that tries to stay on the outside and win scoring points with the judges. However, his depleted chin issues haven’t suddenly changed for me. He’s still very liable there, and I think Fig is exposes that here. 2nd RD KO/TKO to get us started this evening.

PICK: Deiveson Figuieredo $20 FD ($9100 DK)

 

Cody Garbrandt $10 FD ($7100 DK)

By: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)