UFC 271
Main Event
Israel Adesanya vs Rob Whittaker
Middleweight
Here we go, the rematch for the belt. Whittaker has gone on a 3 fight win streak since the first match between them, and has looked extremely impressive, with wins over Cannonier, Till, & Gastelum. All IMO are guys who have peaked. Although, if Cannonier wins his bout today vs Brunson, a title shot is surely to come soon vs the winner here. On the other side, this is Adesanya’s 4th defense of the title since the first Whittaker meeting, and he remains undefeated at Middleweight. He took a chance vs Blachowicz, the former LHW Champ early last year to try and become double champ, but suffered the L because the wrestling was too much to overcome. Outside of that performance, Adesanya is still one of the greatest kickboxers the sport will ever see, he is a master at maintaining distance to capitalize on his advantages. He’s got beautiful technical striking and can counter with the best of them. Whittaker’s path to victory here is non stop pressure, he’ll need to get inside the range of Adesanya and avoid the heavy counters, I’m not quite sure he can do it with much regularity, but we will see. Whittaker has a great well rounded game, and can utilize wrestling as a means to switch things up if needed. The difficulty there is trying to get Adensanya to the mat, and if you do, keeping him there to make it count. His TDEF holds up well at middleweight, so will be tough. I don’t think this fight ends up how the first did because I think Whittaker has improved that much, so Whittaker is worth a look solely due to the fact he’s got 5rd’s to work with. However, I just don’t see a consistent enough approach for him to take the belt back. The pick is for Adesanya to grind it out for 5rd’s, taking a unanimous decision win to once again defend his belt. AND STILLLLLLLLLLLL
PICK: Israel Adesanya $23 FD ($9200 DK)
Rob Whittaker $16 FD ($7000 DK)
Co Main Event
Derrick Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis bounced back nicely after his hometown loss to the former interim champ Ciryl Gane. Gane is simply one of the most impressive heavyweights the sport has seen with his overall fight IQ and ability to be dangerous anywhere the fight goes, and we all know what Lewis looks for, Gane wasn’t ever giving him a clean shot to get it done. Lewis is 3-1 over his last 4, all by way of KO. He’s the most powerful heavyweight in the division as far as sheer force impact is concerned IMO. Tuivasa is getting a BIG step up here, he’s on a 4 fight KO win streak, with wins over Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, Haryy Hunsucker and Stefan Struve. Not an elite name to be found on the list, and was almost knocked out by Greg Hardy before he caught him with the slick counter. Both these men tend to fight at slow pace throughout because they look to load up for the kill shot, so if in some strange universe this goes to a decision, the winning score likely looks rough. I simply just see no way this doesn’t end with someone out cold. Lewis is the far more battle tested, and as soon as he lands two clean shots on the chin, it’ll be done for Tuivasa. The pick is Lewis 1st RD TKO/KO.
PICK: Derrick Lewis $18 ($8800 DK)
Tai Tuivasa $12 FD ($7400 DK)
Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson
Middleweight
This is likely each guys last push to a title, Cannonier is 37yrs old, Brunson is 38. Brunson is on a 5 fight win streak since losing to Adesanya, with wins over Ian Heinisch, Elias Theodorou, Ed Shahbazyan, Kevin Holland, and Darren Till. You could argue who the best win is over that stretch, but I’d say Till by a hair, then Holland. Holland had him in trouble until it hit the mat, if Holland had any type of ground game, we may likely not be here. At any rate, Brunson utilized a clear strength to victory and that’s what you have to do. Cannonier, is 4-1 over the last 5, with the loss coming to Whittaker. The wins over David Branch, Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and Kevin Gastelum, 3 by way of TKO/KO. Cannonier is a good striker, and looks to put together powerful combinations to knock his opponents out. He has decent wrestling, and while his TDEF looks good on the surface, he’s only defending at about a 60% clip, that won’t be good enough here for 3 RDs against a guy averaging 3 TDs over the course of 15mins. So the obvious path to victory for Cannonier is to stay on the feet. Brunson’s striking is also really good, he just has to be mindful of the powerful counters that’ll come back in return. He’s quicker than Cannonier, and will be the one dictating the pace. He’ll look to close distance so he can get TDs, if on top, he has powerful ground and pound, and could start the beginning of the end for anyone, he’ll also have the better cardio down the stretch, which bodes well. I love Brunson in this spot, and glad to take him at his price on both sites. At the very least, I believe is cruises to a unanimous decision win, but could find the win via TKO/KO or sub via rear naked choke. I’ll be on the latter here, and think he gets another statement win ITD to set up the match win the winner of tonight’s championship fight.
PICK: Derek Brunson $14 FD ($7600 DK)
Jared Cannonier $17 FD ($8600 DK)
Renato Moicano vs Alexander Hernandez
Lightweight
Hernandez has been up and down to start his UFC career, sometimes alternating wins and losses, but sits at 5-3 overall. Gets matched with Moicano here. Moicano has also had spots of inconsistency, but overall has had a nice UFC run at 7-4 overall. Moicano’s strength is utilizing his elite grappling skills, hunting for submissions, but on the feet he’s a good technical striker, and utilizes his kickboxing to set things up. On the other side, Hernandez has beautiful technical striking when he puts it all together, and will be the one with more power in this matchup. Hernandez tends to have more struggles with tougher competition, and if that’s the case, it means he’s been less aggressive than we’d like to see. Renato took advantage of a less talented Jai Herbert in his last bout who didn’t present many real threats to Moicano’s approach. I am a bit surprised Moicano is the fav here just because I believe clear striking/power advantage is on the side of Hernandez here, and his wrestling/grappling is up to par enough that he should be able to avoid danger on the mat if it gets there. Moicano has shown trouble in the past with power punchers, and I think we see that again today. I think Hernandez gets the 2nd RD TKO/KO, providing great value to plug into your LU’s.
PICK: Alexander Hernandez $13 FD ($7700 DK)
Renato Moicano $17 ($8500 DK)
Bobby Green vs Nasrat Haqparast
Lightweight
This should be a strikers delight matchup. Haqparast is looking to bounce back from a loss vs Dan Hooker in September of last year, while Green is trying to make it 2 in a row after a nice 1st RD KO win over Al Laquinta in November last year. Haqparast is still pretty young, at only 26 years old, so he has time to continue to improve, and the glaring hole in his game would be defending/wrestling win things hit the mat. Green has wrestling in his back pocket, and could opt to utilize that early depending on how things go on the feet early. Haqparast wants to stand in the pocket and throw shots, but doesn’t particularly move well on his feet. Green, is a crafty fighter, has good power in his striking, moves really well and has great technical striking. If Haqparast is aggressive early, then Green will sit back and counter him. Green’s toughness allows him to be a bit risky at times in striking exchanges, so as things go longer in this one, it probably means he’s pulling away on the cards. His cardio is excellent and he generally turns things up as the fights go deeper. Mix in the fact that he very could/should use his wrestling, and the only clear path to victory becomes a KO/TKO of some sort for Haqparast, and that doesn’t seem likely. The pick is for Green to put together another nice performance on his way to a decision win.
PICK: Bobby Green $16 FD ($8400 DK)
Nasrat Haqparast $15 FD ($7800 DK)
Andrei Arlovski vs Jared Vanderaa
Heavyweight
The vet/former champ gets back at it here for his 36th UFC fight. That’s absolutely insane, especially someone who fights at LHW/HW. He gets another chance to disrupt momentum for someone looking to stake is claim in the UFC. Vanderaa picked up a gritty win over Justin Tafa his last time out, in a fight I thought he’d get KO’ed if I’m being honest. Vanderaa looks to pressure forward and throw shots in the pocket, if someone somehow gets him to the mat, he’ll be in trouble, but fortunately for him, Arlovski won’t look to take anyone down, so this should play out mostly on the feet. Arlovski likes to try and control the pace, throwing low kicks out there to go along with his striking. He’s much more technically sound offensively in his striking, and will take less damage on the feet because he’ll stay moving. This one is hard to gauge from a pure DFS perspective, but on the surface it looks like one to avoid. If Vanderaa pulls off the upset, it likely means he’s gotten minimum 85+ SS landed, which could be a decent score at $14 on FD, but I think others around his price could blow by him, so it’s likely a stay away matchup for me. The pick is for Arlovski to grind his way to another decision win here.
PICK: Andrei Arlovski $16 FD ($8300 DK)
Jared Vanderra $14 FD ($7900 DK)
Casey O’Neill vs Roxanne Modafferi
Women’s Flyweight
Modafferi has announced she’s calling it quits after this bout, and what a tough opponent draw for this to happen with. O’Neill has made her presence felt in her first 3 UFC fights, winning all in dominant fashion on the way to a finish. This’ll be Modafferi’s 45th professional bout, and her 12th in the UFC. To put it simply, Modafferi is a tough, grind it out fighter who doesn’t mind where the fight takes place, but prefers to keep things in the clinch where she can try and do damage. She’s still aggressive, even at her age and will pressure forward no matter the opponent, her striking is a bit more technical than O’Neill, but that’s just a byproduct of time. O’Neill has decent striking, but everything is a setup to get things to the clinch to work her TDs so she can go to work on the mat. Her ground and pound is nice and she can wear you down with pressure once it’s there. Modafferi hasn’t been finished in her career, but I think this is the first we see it, and unfortunately on her way out. The pick is for O’Neill to get a 2nd Rd stoppage, for her 4th straight to start her career.
PICK: Casey O’Neill $21 FD ($9500 DK)
Roxanne Modafferi ($6700 DK)
Kyler Phillips vs Marcelo Rojo
Bantamweight
Phillips is coming off of his first loss in the UFC last summer vs Raulian Paiva in a bout I thought he won, but judges don’t care about that. He’s a very well rounded fighter, he mixes things up well on the feet with his kickboxing and technical striking, and looks to be aggressive in the clinch as he goes for TDs. He moves really well on his feet and will apply pressure. Rojo is coming off of his UFC debut where he suffered a KO loss to Charles Jourdain. Rojo is a pretty good well rounded fighter as well, he looks to utilize the power he has in his striking, and can mix things up on the mat, but prefers the striking. He’s had tough times on the mat, having been submitted 4 times. Phillips is clearly better no matter where this goes, but from a DFS perspective the pricing suggest he runs through him, and I don’t think that’s the case, which means he likely doesn’t pay off his price. So I’ll likely avoid in DFS. Phillips either gets a late finish or dominant decision win, I lean the latter.
PICK: Kyler Phillips $22 FD ($9400 DK)
Marcelo Rojo $8 ($6800 DK)
Carlos Ulberg vs Fabio Cherant
Light Heavyweight
Cherant is in a tough spot, coming off of 2 losses to start his UFC career, both via finish, he’s in a position where a loss could put him back out of the UFC. Cherant is a really good wrestler when he can get it going, and has a knack for finding submissions. His striking is decent, but generally low volume with a little power, he needs to find the mat early. Ulberg, took a UFC debut loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu after burning his gas tank and basically wilting in the 2nd RD when Nzechukwu found the kill shot. One thing to note was the amount of output Ulberg had in such a relatively short time in the grand scheme of things, he landed 146 SS and there was still a little less than half a round to go in the 2nd. If he can learn to manage his output, his cardio won’t fade as quickly, and by fights end, he could still have that output. I personally don’t think Cherant is UFC level ready yet, and Ulberg should be able to find success in his striking early enough to overwhelm him. I think Ulberg gets the finish in RD 1 at some point.
PICK: Carlos Ulberg $20 FD ($8900 DK)
Fabio Cherant $10 FD ($7300 DK)
Ronnie Lawrence vs Mana Martinez
Bantamweight
Mana Martinez gutted out a win in his UFC debut over Guido Cannetti late last summer. He showed a well rounded game, able to put together nice combinations on the feet, while mixing in a couple TDs. He can have success finding submissions given the right opportunity, but that’ll be hard pressed vs a guy like Lawrence. Lawrence made his debut almost a year ago, and had a dominant showing vs Vince Cachero, scoring a 3rd RD KO/TKO. He also had 8 TDs out of 9 attempts , with about 8mins of control time. Martinez will have a tough time keeping Lawrence off of him for the bulk of the fight, his path to victory will be finding a flash KO at some point. Lawrence moves really well on the feet, and will pressure forward from start to finish, mixing in his kickboxing as a means to close the distance. If Martinez has trouble defending the TDs early, Lawrence likely has another day with 5-10 TDs potentially. The pick is for Lawrence to once again have his way in terms of the way this fight is dictated, and should at the least have a unanimous decision win. Martinez’s toughness could easily get this one to the cards. I think Lawrence has another nice fantasy showing no matter the result though.
PICK: Ronnie Lawrence $21 FD ($9300 DK)
Mana Martinez $ 10 FD ($6900 DK)
Jacob Malkoun vs AJ Dobson
Middleweight
Malkoun has started his UFC campaign off 1-1, both matchups were to quick finishers, Phil Hawes and Abdul Razak Alhassan, the latter opponent, Alhassan is who he got the best of with his wrestling. He almost immediately applied pressure, limiting anything he tried not do. Malkoun had TWENTY FOUR TD attempts in that matchup, successfully getting 8 of them. He’ll need to have a similar approach here against Dobson. Dobson is another DWCS alum making his debut, currently undefeated. He’s got a knack for quick finishes due to his power. He’s only been out of the 1st RD once so far, so the worry is what he could look like if things get messy and hit deep waters. So the question becomes can Malkoun avoid early trouble again? The UFC matchmakers like playing with fire it seems as far as Malkoun goes it appears. This is a coin flip matchup, I think Dobson is a little bit better at keeping things standing than Alhassan was, and could find success in those exchanges. I think Dobson can find the finish early, if he doesn’t, the likelihood he wins a decision diminishes the longer it goes. But the pick is Dobson 1st RD KO.
PICK: AJ Dobson $15 FD ($8200 DK)
Jacob Malkoun $15 FD ($8000 DK)
Sergey Morozov vs Douglas Silva de Andrade
Bantamweight
Morozov got submitted in his UFC debut vs Umar Nurmagamedov, but bounced back his 2nd time out vs Khalid Taha earning a decision win. He was able to mix things up pretty well and found success getting TDs. He’s also a nice technical striker, and counters really well. Andrade, is making his 10th trip to the octagon in the UFC. He’s getting a bit older, at 36yrs old, but features good power for the division with decent striking. He’ll also utilize his legs kicks and mix targets to the leg/body etc. His wrestling is decent, but against a stronger wrestler/grappler in Morozov, I think he could find some trouble if it hits the mat, especially in terms of control time etc. Morozov is probably in for at least 3-4 TDs in this one minimum, it’ll just be about how well he can work off of his back. Morozov seems to be better no matter where this fight goes, and I think he’ll get another decision win on the back of a strong ground game.
PICK: Sergey Morozov $19 FD ($9000 DK)
Douglas Silva de Andrade $12 FD ($7200 DK)
Jeremiah Wells vs Mike Mathetha
Welterweight
Jeremiah had as successful a debut as anyone could imagine when he knocked out Warlley Alves in the 2nd RD of their bout last summer. Wells likes to try and mix things up, but he has obvious KO power. He fights in a low stance, and comes out the gate applying pressure to get his opponent on the back foot. He’s lower volume in terms of striking, but he makes up for it with his power. He also has a pretty decent ground game to fall back on if needed. Mathetha, is making his debut after having only 3 professional fights to his name. He comes from City Kickboxing. He’s a good athlete, has some decent striking skills. But his current level of competition suggest that this is a big step up. He hasn’t fought in almost 2 yrs, so the improvements could be there and could score the upset, but wouldn’t bet on it. Wells’ physicality/pressure will be too much. I think Wells gets another finish. I’ll be cautiously optimistic and say it comes RD 2.
PICK: Jeremiah Wells $20 FD ($9100 DK)
Mike Mathetha $11 FD ($7100 DK)
Max Grishin vs William Knight
Heavyweight
Knight came in 12lbs over weight and was forced to forfeit 40% of his purse, and Grishin agreed to take the fight at Heavyweight instead of LHW. Grishin somehow still lost his last fight vs Dustin Jacoby despite the 2 KDs he scored and pressure he was able to apply. He looked really good in his ability to counter strike when he needed, and showed great toughness. Now he gets Knight, with the bad weight miss, really hard to know how much he’s prepared from a physical standpoint to handle this one. But he’s riding a nice 2 fight win streak, and had a really impressive showing vs Alonzo Menifield in his last outing. He offers big power in his striking, and can put together nice combinations in the pocket. His wrestling should also be better here, so if things do start to go south on the feet, he could fall back on that. I’ll be really interested to see how this plays out as far as Knight’s cardio if this hits the latter parts of RD 2 and beyond. I like Knight still here, I think his power will be the difference, it’ll keep Grishin off the attack for just enough and he could very well score a TKO/KO.
PICK: William Knight $13 FD ($7500 DK)
Max Grishin $18 FD ($8700 DK)
by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
