UFC 270
Main Event
Ciryl Gane vs Francis Ngannou
Heavyweight
- We finally get to see one of the most powerful Heavyweights of all time defend his belt against one of the most technical heavyweights the UFC has ever seen in Gane. Ngannou has won 5 straight all via KO, and looked so improved in his most recent bout against Stipe when he won the belt. He seemed much more patient and picked his shots. Pressured really well and utilized all facets of his offense, and it was too much for Stipe. Now, the interim champ, Gane, gets his chance to reign king. He’s undefeated as a professional fighter and has done nothing but impress in every bout, showing more diverse skills than anyone his size. He’s extremely technical and moves so light on his feet. He’s also really good at avoiding damage, while seemingly dishing it out at a high volume, as evidenced by his 5.3 SSLMP vs only taking 2.4 SSAMP (significant strikes absorbed). Ngannou makes up with power what he lacks in volume, both metrics for him are about 2.5 SSLMP vs just over 2 SSAMP, according to ufcstats.com. One thing to note about Gane is how high level his fight IQ is, in the Derrick Lewis fight, he seemed to avoid the big shots from Lewis, and defended well enough the ones that seemed to make some sort of significant contact. All in all, Ngannou only needs to land a couple of clean combinations flush before things get bad for his opponents, however, I’ve been back and forth all week on where I side, and I lean ever so slightly with the challenger in Gane, if this fight sees a 4th RD, it likely means Ngannou is looking for the finish, because he’ll likely be down on the cards in that scenario. The pick, AND NEWWWWWWW
PICK: Ciryl Gane $18 FD ($8400 DK)
Francis Ngannou $17 FD ($7800 DK)
Co Main Event
Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Fig
Flyweight
- rarely do we see a 4th matchup between a pair of fighters because generally the 3rd meeting is a rubber match to settle the score, in which case, this is. But I’d lean on thinking, that should Fig win his belt back, Dana wouldn’t hesitate to give it a go for a 4th time. For all too long, Deiveson was feared by most flyweights because of the shear stopping power he has for the division. During the first meeting between them, Fig definitely had his moments, but seemed taken aback by the toughness Moreno showed, especially a guy coming in on short notice (didn’t have a full camp, fought 3 weeks after Royval fight). In the second, we saw what many got a glimpse of in the first meeting, and that was a pressure heavy Moreno who controlled the pace, and seemed to overwhelm Fig. And when Fig tried to use his grappling/wrestling, Moreno was able to get in an advantageous position and took the back, from there it was all she wrote. This matchup is about Fig setting the tone early, if he gets put on the back foot early, we could see much of the same from the 2nd meeting. Losing the belt messed with Fig’s psyche IMO, he needs to get out of his head if he’s going to win his belt back. And I’m not sure he has, Moreno should control how things go again here, and I think he retains the belt, nullifying any hopes of a 4th potential matchup. AND STILLLLLLLL
PICK: Brandon Moreno $17 FD ($8500 DK)
Deiveson Figueiredo $14 FD ($7700 DK)
Michel Pereira vs Andre Fialho
Welterweight
- This should be a fun one. Pereira is on a 3 fight winning streak, and is commonly known for his crowd pleasing antics inside the octagon, doing various unorthodox forms of offense like jumping off the side of the cage etc. He was disqualified in his bout vs Diego Sanchez due to an illegal knee, otherwise it’d be a 4 fight win streak here. It was the last fight in 2020 he had with Kalinn Williams that showed me he could put the antics aside and just fight with a straightforward approach without doing too much, and I’m sure that was with Williams KO power in mind. But Pereira overall is a good technical boxer with great kickboxing, he manages distance well and will look to pressure. He also has great grappling/wrestling skills to fall back on and will change pace if he needs to, as he has some submission wins on his record. He gets debutant Andre Fialho in this one on short notice. Fialho is on a 4 fight win streak of his own, and had recent stints with Bellator and PFL. He’s best known for his power, 11 of his 14 wins have come via TKO/KO. He won’t throw high volume, he looks for the big shots and can generate big power in close range. Pereira has faced much stiffer competition and should be better anywhere this goes. There’s always a fighters chance though, so Fialho could be a guy to take a chance on as a cheap option. Pereira should be able to control pace, and as long as he doesn’t get too cute, he should coast, possibly finding a late finish of his own. But the pick is Pereira via decision.
PICK: Michel Pereira $21 FD ($9100 DK)
Andre Fialho $10 FD ($7100 DK)
Trevin Giles vs Michael Morales
Welterweight
- Giles makes the cut down to Welterweight for this one after he spent time at Middleweight. The drop down seems confusing, as Middleweight seemed like the more natural weight fit, we’ll see how that affects him here. Giles is a talented fighter, he just hasn’t put it all together yet, he’s quick on his feet, and has power in his hands. He’s also a good wrestler when it calls for it. He’ll mix in his kickboxing and will try to push the pace. His biggest downfall right now IMO is his cockiness, it got him KO’ed his last time out. He’ll get into the pocket of his opponent and lean forward a bit with his hands low banking on his athleticism to save him, you can’t do that and have consistent success, so if he can limit that, he could make some noise. Morales, is making his debut, he’ll be the longer fighter here, and pretty much for the division in most fights. He’s a solid prospect that has great technical striking. He tends to start slower as a means to get a read on his opponent. But once the ball starts rolling in his offense he can get it going. His wrestling/grappling is good as well, and probably has the upper hand in that department too. The worry would just be level of competition he’s faced vs Giles, but eventually if you’re making the next step, you have to take leap up. Without knowing if Giles has changed his approach in defensive awareness, I give the slight nod to Morales here. He’s got power, so could get the finish late, but being cautiously optimistic I’ll say he gets it done via unanimous decision.
PICK: Michael Morales $15 FD ($8200 DK)
Trevin Giles $15 FD ($8000 DK)
S. Nurmagomedov vs Cody Stamann
Bantamweight
- This is a good matchup. Stamann is such a good overall fighter and doesn’t have many real weakness. He’s a solid striker, fights lower to the ground as he tries to get into the pocket. He’s no stranger to shooting for TD’s to mix things up. He gets great control when he’s on the mat and can definitely steal rounds that way. Nurmagomedov, no relation to Khabib, is a technical striker with power, he looks to string offense together on the feet with combinations etc. and would prefer to keep it there. He has really solid TDEF though, so should be able to keep this one standing for the most part, and if that’s the case, he should be able to pick Stamann apart as the fight goes long. Stamann is tough though, so I think it’ll be hard for Nurmagomedov to get a finish. I think he gets a unanimous decision win here.
PICK: S. Nurmagomedov $17 FD ($8600)
Cody Stamann $13 FD ($7600 DK)
Raoni Barcelos vs Victor Henry
Bantamweight
- This fight could be a banger. Henry is making his UFC debut, he’s been over seas in Japan on the regional scene, and spent time with Rizin. He’s a good striker, but better wrestler, and would prefer to get it there. He’s had good level of competition and has been a fighter for 10+ yrs, but there’s always another level. Barcelos is a high paced guy, he dishes out 5.39 SSLMP while absorbing 4.36 SS/m. He’s also pretty savvy on the mat if it gets there, does great with reversing position/scrambling. He should be able to control pace for the entirety of this one dishing out good volume. Henry seems to be tough enough to whether any storms, but that won’t do him any favors on the score cards. Barcelos should walk away with a clear unanimous decision here at the least.
PICK: Raoni Barcelos $22 FD ($9300 DK)
Victor Henry $8 FD ($6900 DK)
Jack Della M vs Pete Rodriguez
Welterweight
- Both guys set to make their debut here. JDM is an alum of DWCS and got his shot from there, very highly touted prospect. He has high fight IQ and adjust well as the matchup goes on. He likes to be patient early on trying to get his opponents timing down, and once he has them figures out, he can put together nice combinations working all levels of the body. Has nice power too. One thing he’ll need to continue to get better in is his wrestling off of his back especially, in his DWCS matchup, he showed that he won’t settle for the position, and will be smart to try and get out of bad situations to get it back to the feet. Rodriguez has had just 4 fights in his professional career and taking this fight on late notice. He’s a talented prospect, but with so little in the way of talented competition faced, it’s hard to really know what his trajectory should/could be. He’s got KO power, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he scores the upset, but JDM just seems to be in better position here. And for that reason, I think he’s actually the one who’ll get the job done via TKO/KO in the 1st.
PICK: JDM $22 FD ($9200 DK)
Pete Rodriguez $ 9 FD ($7000 DK)
Tony Gravely vs S. Oliveira
Bantamweight
- Gravely sits at 2-2 in the UFC after suffering a KO loss to Maness his last time out, he got a bit too over aggressive and it cost him. He likes to utilize low kicks to set his offense up, and has nice technical boxing. He has a nice wrestling gm to fall back on too, and does well to maintain control when he gets it there. Oliveira is making his debut. He’s simply a guy that looks to hunt for the submission when the fight hits the mat, but more so due to lucky instances where the opponent gives him a clear spot to take advantage of. Gravely has his lapses on the feet, but shouldn’t give that type of window when things hit the mat. Oliveira’s striking is decent, but he prefers to get it grounded. This figures to be an ugly matchup, but Gravely, as long as he stays poised, should get the win.
PICK: Tony Gravely $20 FD ($8900 DK)
S. Oliveira $13 FD ($7300 DK)
V. Demopoulos vs Gomez Juarez
Women’s Strawweight
- Both women here took L’s in their debuts. Juarez had the toughest opponent in Lupi Godinez, Godinez just rag-dolled her until a submission ended it late in the 1st. Aside from that mismatch, Juarez is a good technical striker, and she’ll sport a 6 inch reach advantage over Demopoulos here. The trouble for her could come when trying to stuff the TD attempts. If she can, she should win in the striking exchanges and pull away on the cards. For Demopoulos, her physicality needs to be her friend, she throws wild combinations at times, which allows her to get hit pretty easily on the counter shots, but that’s all a means for her to try and close distance to get the TDs. If she can with some consistency, she could be in position to control for a good bit of the rounds. Juarez needs to be careful to not get caught in any odd positions to get subbed on the mat. This one is ugly, and really hard to call, but due to the advantage on the feet and my thought that she can keep it standing enough, I give the nod to Suarez, via decision.
PICK: Gomez Suarez $14 FD ($7900 DK)
V. Demopoulos $16 FD ($8300 DK)
Matt Frevola vs Genaro Valdez
Lightweight
- Frevola is on a two fight losing streak, and it’s hard to look at his last bout and have a ton of confidence against anyone who offers big power, and he has another opponent here who offers that. Frevola got blasted in 7 seconds vs T Wrecks McKinney at UFC 263 last summer, it was disheartening. But at his best, Frevola is pressuring forward throwing big punches, ultimately looking to get into grappling situations to get the TD. He has a relentless approach to it, and it’s the center piece of his offense. He gets a matchup with debut fighter Genaro Valdez. Valdez earned his contract last October on DWCS. Valdez is a powerful technical striker, and generally gets his offense rolling early, as a result, has seen several early finishes, the worry here is his conditioning late if he can’t get Frevola out of there, he tends to fade, and if that happens, Frevola should be in a spot to takeover. However, after seeing Frevola’s lack of defensive awareness so early his last time out to get cracked like that, he’s going to have to prove me wrong. Valdez is one of my fav underdogs on the slate, and I think he takes care of business RD 1 with a KO/TKO.
PICK: Genaro Valdez $14 FD ($7500 DK)
Frevola $16 FD ($8700 DK)
Kay Hansen vs J. Jasudavicius
Flyweight
- Ugly matchup anytime Hansen is involved, and she lost a questionable decision last time out, so looking to bounce back here vs the debutant. Hansen has decent striking, but looks to apply constant pressure as she puts together combinations. Jasudavicius is the longer fighter, and sports a 5 inch reach advantage, she’ll have the slightly better technical striking, but won’t have quite the volume as Hansen. She is good on the mat, but Hansen doesn’t settle, and if it does get there, Hansen has enough wherewithal to successfully reverse positioning to her advantage. Hansen is aggressive, and that will serve her well here, tough to call outright honestly, but have to roll with the more experienced fighter in Hansen. She gets it done via decision.
PICK: Kay Hansen $20 FD ($8800 DK)
J. Jasudavicius $11 FD ($7400 DK)
by: Chris Joseph (cmj0009)
