High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Song Yadong
Song Yadong has struggled at times throughout his career. He owns a 4-0 record in the UFC, though, finishing three of his last four wins. Yadong boasts a 100% takedown defense rate, allowing him to dictate where his fights take place. He’s an active striker, who comes with tremendous power, as well. Yadong is a solid defensive striker. He will see a step up in competition this Saturday.
Cody Stamann entered the UFC with a 14-1 record, losing only once via split decision. In the UFC, he posted a 4-1 record, losing only to Aljamain Sterling. Stamann won two of his fights via split decision, though. He’s an active striker on the feet, although he struggles defensively. Stamann generally focuses heavily around his wrestling, which allows him to dictate many of his fights.
Yadong possesses the grappling to keep this fight standing. He likely won’t end up in any dominant grappling positions, but Yadong’s best route to victory is through his striking. He owns a slight reach advantage over Stamann, which will allow him to control the distance. Yadong comes with too much power for Stamann to consistently leave holes in his striking defense, which could result in another knockout victory for Yadong.
Jason’s Reaction: Yadong’s upside is definitely worth consideration in tournaments this weekend.
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Jason’s Pick: Makhmud Muradov
If there is one thing that Floyd Mayweather knows better than anyone, it’s MMA. Okay, that isn’t entirely true, but Mayweather Promotions did sign Uzbek-native Makhmud Muradov. He is 1-0 in the UFC, defeating Alessio Di Chirico after replacing the injured Peter Sobotta in September of 2019.
Muradov possesses impressive striking, and despite a decision win against Di Chirico, 15 of his 22 victories are via knockout. He also owns three submission victories. With plenty of finishing potential, Muradov is one of this week’s top options on DraftKings, even at his high price tag. Mayweather is likely spending as much money as possible to ensure that his first UFC signee dominates, making Mayweather Promotions look great in the process.
Trevor Smith is an aging, 38-year-old UFC veteran. He has solid wrestling fundamentals, as well as some Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, but ultimately, he is on his way out of the UFC’s door. In his last four fights, he defeated Chris Camozzi and lost to Andrew Sanchez, Elias Theodorou, and Zak Cummings. Muradov should have no problem picking up the win this Saturday, and he could do it in a spectacular fashion.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t believe Muradov is likely to lose, but I’m not sure I’m willing to pay the price for him. Smith hasn’t been finished since 2014, and this fight is expected to go the distance. Muradov is a great cash option, but there are better fighters for tournaments.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Rob Font
Rob Font has seen mixed results in the UFC, but he only lost to high-level competition. He boasts a 6-3 record, losing to Raphael Assuncao, Pedro Munhoz, and John Lineker. Font is a long fighter who utilizes volume striking, as he’s landing nearly 5.0 significant strikes per minute throughout his UFC career. He owns a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, flashing multiple submissions throughout his career, as well. Ultimately, Font finished 11 of his 16 professional wins.
Ricky Simon is coming off of his first UFC loss. He was knocked out by Urijah Faber in less than a minute. With that being said, some have questioned his win over Merab Dvalishvili. Ultimately, Simon is a fighter that loves utilizing takedowns to control his opponents throughout the fight. He is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well.
The biggest concern for Font is his inability to stuff takedowns. He works well off of his back, while possessing the ability to work back to his feet. Simon possesses solid cardio, though, and will likely be looking for takedowns throughout the entire fight. Still, Font is far too cheap for his upside. He’s averaging 113.7 fantasy points per win throughout his UFC career. Simon was exposed against Faber, and I expect a veteran like Font to find similar success in this fight.
Jason’s Reaction: I actually like Simon as an underdog play because it is so difficult to find high-upside underdogs on this Sunday’s card.
Jason’s Pick: Marina Rodriguez
Marina Rodriguez entered the UFC in an impressive way; she knocked out Maria de Oliveira Neta in the first round on Dana White’s Tuesday Night contender series. Her momentum stalled for a moment after a majority draw to Randa Markos, but she picked up two consecutive wins after that against Jessica Aguilar and Tecia Torres.
On the regional scene, Rodriguez showed knockout and submission potential, but in the UFC, finding finishes is going to be more difficult. She trains Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with Marcio Malko and Alexandre de Souza. The Brazilian-native is already 32 years old, and she is looking to make her mark on the UFC’s strawweight division as soon as possible. She only started training UFC at the age of 26, but the learning curve proved to be nonexistent, as she is currently undefeated as a professional.
This weekend, she gets a semi-tough matchup against Cynthia Calvillo. Calvillo also trains Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but she adds wrestling to the mix whenever possible. Outside of a loss to Carla Esparza in December of 2017, Calvillo is undefeated professionally, as well. Her most recent wins are over Poliana Botelho and Cortney Casey. This is a great, even matchup for both fighters, but Rodriguez has the better cardio. In her previous fight against Aguilar, she threw over 100 significant strikes, scoring over 100 DraftKings fantasy points. Her upside is higher, and her price tag is reasonable.
Justin’s Reaction: Both fighters come with upside, and I’m fine taking either side in tournaments. I do agree that Rodriguez is the slightly better option of the two if you’re only making one lineup.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Jairzinho Rozenstruik surprisingly made waves in the UFC significantly faster than anyone expected. He boasts a 3-0 record, recording three knockouts. He needed only 38 combined seconds to earn knockout wins over Allen Crowder and Andrei Arlovski in his last two fights. Prior to the UFC, Rozenstruik posted a 76-8 kickboxing record. He isn’t looking to grapple in his fights. Rozenstruik simply wants to use his kickboxing and elite power to find knockouts.
Alistair Overeem has been an elite heavyweight for quite some time. It would be pointless to go over his lifetime achievements, as there are far too many of them. He only lost to elite level competition, as his last three losses came to Curtis Blaydes, Francis Ngannou, and Stipe Miocic. He owns four wins (three knockouts) between those fights, as well. Overeem is a high-level striker, who owns a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
This fight is relatively simple. Rozenstruik needs to use his kickboxing, while Overeem is the significantly more versatile fighter. With that being said, the latter has been knocked out 13 times throughout his career, and this will be his 64th professional fight. Essentially, this fight is a coin flip, and I’ll take the cheaper option. We’ve seen many prospects step up to Overeem in the past and lose, but Rozenstruik should be able to keep this fight standing long enough to find a knockout with his vicious power.
Jason’s Reaction: Ultimately, I think Overeem wins this fight, but Rozenstruik is a great option in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Thiago Alves
This is a very difficult card for underdogs, but Thiago Alves makes sense in deeper tournaments. In his last four fights, he is 1-3 with loses to Curtis Millender, Alexey Kunchenko, and Laureano Staropoli. He defeated Max Griffin via a split decision. The two-time Fight of the Night recipient is on his last legs. He has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but it is more like that he brawls with Tim Means this Sunday.
Means is a technical striker with plenty of knockout potential, but his chin is currently in question. In his last four fights, he is also 1-3 with a win over Ricky Rainey. He lost to Belal Muhammad, Sergio Moraes, and Niko Price. Price knocked him out in the first round.
The most likely outcome is a Tim Means victory, but Alves has knockout potential. Means has great cardio, but he has shown holes in his striking over his last four fights, and if Alves can exploit those holes, he has a chance to win. These two fighters should be priced a little bit more evenly, so the value is there.
Justin’s Reaction: I understand what you’re arguing, but I don’t truly see many ways Alves finds any success with his striking. Means should easily pick up the win in this fight.
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