Welcome to the ‘Battle of the Bales’ fantasy MMA breakdown. This article offers UFC DraftKings picks for the upcoming Fight Night 161 card this Saturday. Justin will offer a recommendation, followed by Jason’s response. DFS Karma readers can probably guess what happens next. Jason will offer a recommendation, followed by Justin’s response.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC on ESPN 6 – High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Dominick Reyes
This is a relatively simple fight. Chris Weidman is making his move to light heavyweight, and he’s the better all-around fighter. With that being said, Dominick Reyes is the significantly more powerful of the two. Weidman will need to get this fight to the ground, where he should have a distinct advantage. Reyes has finished 6 of his 11 fights via knockout, though, and he looks to be the next challenger for the light heavyweight championship. Weidman has also been knocked out in four of his last five fights, which all took place at middleweight. In the only fight that he won, he was rocked on the feet before finding a submission. Reyes likely carries more power than the majority of middleweight fighters, leaving me to believe the results will be the same for Weidman. While this fight is scheduled to go five rounds, I expect Reyes to find a knockout well before that.
Jason’s Reaction: Reyes is one of the top options this weekend. Roster him in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Molly McCann
It seems rather counterintuitive to recommend a fighter that has bad odds to finish inside the distance, when this Friday’s UFC on ESPN 6 features multiple high-upside fights. Molly McCann is a great cash game play, though. In both of her last wins, she scored at least 100 fantasy points, and her odds to win this weekend are -500 via Vegas. Diana Belbita is coming off three consecutive wins, but her opponents have a combined record of 8-13. She has shown an inability to defend the takedown, and despite decent Brazilian jiu-jitsu, she is going to struggle with McCann on top of her. McCann has at least two takedowns in both of her last two fights, and she will takedown Belbita at will. If Belbita gets back to her feet, McCann is going to score plenty of fantasy points, especially with her nasty ground and pound.
Justin’s Reaction: It’s difficult to trust McCann as this big of a favorite, but I agree that she should easily win this fight. She’s likely the safest option on the entire card, and if you can get to her, use her in cash.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC on ESPN 6 – Mid Priced
Justin’s Pick: Maycee Barber
I have been on Gillian Robertson in each of her first five UFC fights, and she has posted a 4-1 record. I’m jumping ship in favor of Maycee Barber for UFC on ESPN 6, who has been a large favorite in each of her two UFC wins. Barber should have the advantage in striking, while Robertson will flash as a grappler if given the opportunity. I don’t expect that to happen, though, as Barber has the takedown defense and strength necessary to keep this fight standing. Barber is known for her power. She should be able to find another finish in the UFC, and at only 21 years old, she looks like a future championship contender.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m not entirely sold on Barber this weekend. She has great upside, but Robertson could be a sneaky underdog recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Manny Bermudez
Since entering the UFC, Manny Bermudez’s opponent this Friday, Charles Rosa, has had a tough time gaining momentum. He lost his debut against Dennis Siver, defeated Sean Soriano, lost against Yair Rodriguez, defeated Kyle Bochniak, and most recently lost against Shane Burgos. Bermudez, on the other hand, won three consecutive fights before dropping his undefeated professional record to Casey Kenny via decision. Both fighters have great Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Bermudez has the better striking. If BJJ is cancelled out, this is Bermudez’s fight to lose. According to Vegas, Bermudez is a -140 betting favorite with +130 odds to win inside the distance. His price tag is very reasonable on DraftKings, and his floor is quite high because Rosa is +365 to win inside the distance.
Justin’s Reaction: I can’t figure out why the odds are so close in this fight. I’m on Bermudez, and I like him for his price tag.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC on ESPN 6 – Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ben Sosoli
I am fully aware that this fight is going to end with Ben Sosoli getting knocked out. We can take a shot on him, though. He owns six knockouts in his career, while he has yet to be knocked out. If Sosoli can somehow withstand the power of Greg Hardy, the latter has virtually nothing in his arsenal. Hardy lost his only fight that went more than one round, though he did lose via DQ. If Sosoli can take Hardy into deep waters, he has a chance to win this fight. The most likely scenario is Hardy finds another first-round knockout in an impressive victory, but both sides can be considered in tournaments. If Sosoli wins, you’ll be ahead of more than 50% of the lineups, as Hardy generally garners 50% or more ownership every time he fights.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m a sheep. I’ll be on the Hardy side without question. He finds the KO in the first round.
Jason’s Pick: Daniel Spitz
It is always worrisome recommending a fighter against the hometown favorite, as the UFC judges don’t have a great track record of keeping things fair. That said, Daniel Spitz has more ways to finish this fight, and upside is what fantasy owners are after in tournaments. Tanner Boser is a Karate-based fighter with harsh leg kicks. Spitz is lengthy, so he will have to defend those adequately. However, he trains Sikjitsu with Michael Chiesa, Julianna Pena, and Sam Sicilia, so Boser will want to avoid his takedown attempts. Throwing so many legs kicks can make it difficult to do that. If that doesn’t work, Spitz has shown semi-impressive striking throughout his career. He has two professional knockout, as well as three professional submission, victories. He is best when he is grappling, which also limits Boser’s striking. If he fights smart, Spitz can win this fight.
Justin’s Reaction: This is an odd spot. I don’t like either of the two fighters. Spitz has already lost to an atrocious Mark Godbeer, and Boser will have a massive size advantage (not height or reach). I understand considering Spitz, but I’d expect Boser to find the victory.
