High Priced
Sean Brady
This fight seems relatively clear on paper with Sean Brady having the edge virtually everywhere against Christian Aguilera. Brady is the more complete fighter with better wrestling and submission skills. Aguilera has knockout power, winning 11 of his 14 victories via (T)KO, including a quick knockout over Anthony Ivy in his UFC debut. Brady has shown the chin to be able to handle powerful strikes, though, and can utilize his wrestling to determine where the fight will take place.
Brady is a -410 favorite with +150 odds to finish inside the distance. He posted 92 and 110 fantasy points in his 2 UFC wins. He has arguably the best floor on the slate with the main event being one three rounds. Brady also comes with some finishing potential in this fight, as Aguilera has been knocked out four times in his career. At worst, Brady fights at a high pace for 15 minutes but his pace with the potential to finish gives him an elite ceiling.
Mid-Priced
Alessio Di Chirico
Di Chirico is a defensive fighter that has the ability to slow down any opponent. He doesn’t land at a high clip, but that may not matter in this matchup. He also comes with a bit of power and can finish fights. He has the ability to land takedowns but it’s tough to assume he’ll consistently go for them against Zak Cummings, who may need a submission to win this fight.
Cummings is another low paced fighter, even lower than Di Chirico. I give him the edge in submission grappling but find it hard to believe he’ll try or be able to get this fight to the ground. Because of that, he’ll either need a submission off of his back or a knockout, as he doesn’t throw enough to win a decision without doing quite a bit of damage.
Di Chirico is a -115 favorite with only +435 odds to win inside the distance. I don’t expect this fight to finish, but I’m not going to completely write off Di Chirico because he’s priced as an underdog. If he can find 80+ fantasy points in a win, I’m not opposed to playing him, specifically in cash games. Di Chirico has held up extremely well in the UFC, and if Cummings can’t finish him, I expect him to pull out the victory as the underdog on DraftKings.
Low Priced
Ion Cutelaba
This play is mainly a high upside shot in the dark. Cutelaba recently fought Magomed Ankalaev, losing via first-round knockout. He wasn’t actually knocked out, though, as he was pretending to get Ankalaev to throw more. It was an odd strategy that tricked a lot of people, including the ref. Cutelaba has struggled with cardio throughout his career and he recently tested positive for Covid-19, suggesting he hasn’t been training much.
With that being said, he comes with tremendous power in his hands. He has won 12 of his 15 victories via (T)KO while only technically being knocked out once, which we established wasn’t actually a knockout. Ankalaev looked prepared to throw with Cutelaba in their first fight, and if that happens again, he’s a live dog.
Cutelaba is currently a +260 underdog with +290 odds tto win inside the distance. I don’t expect his cardio to hold up, meaning he more or less will find a first-round finish or be finished. This is a fight you definitely want to attack, and it’s smarter to use Ankalaev if you’re only running one lineup. Cutelaba comes with slate breaking upside, though. He’s just a first-round knockout or bust option.
