High Priced
Veronica Macedo
This isn’t an elite slate to pay up for a fighter, but Veronica Macedo comes with upside. She started 0-3 in her first UFC fights, losing to relatively difficult competition. She’s coming off of a fight round submission of Polyana Viana, though. Macedo comes with some knockout power, but she’ll likely utilize her grappling in this matchup. Most importantly, she’s the significantly more experienced fighter in this matchup.
Bea Malecki is 3-0 in her professional career. She defeated two winless fighters before defeating a 3-0 Duda Santana in her UFC debut. Santana clearly wasn’t ready for the UFC in that fight, though, and she still had her moments against Malecki. Malecki will have a distinct size advantage over Macedo, though.
This fight comes down to skill, experience, and technique against physical tools. While I do believe there are times to utilize fighters because of their physical tools, this isn’t one of them. Macedo boasts +185 odds to win inside the distance as a -170 favorite. On a card without many projected finishes, Macedo makes a solid option, although she comes with a hefty price tag.
Mid-Priced
Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira has seen mixed results throughout his UFC career. He finally seems to be on the right track, winning each of his last six fights via finish. Oliveira utilizes outstanding Muay Thai to go along with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He continues to get better as his career progresses, and he has only truly lost to high-level competition.
Kevin Lee is another fighter that’s on the rise. He’s coming off of an outstanding performance against Gregor Gillespie, although he lost three of four fights prior to that. Similarly to Oliveira, Lee has only lost to dominant competition in recent fights. He’s an outstanding wrestler, who has solid standup. Lee isn’t quite as dangerous as Oliveira, but he comes with plenty of finishing potential.
This fight is likely to play out one of two ways. Lee wins the striking exchanges, potentially utilizing dominant ground and pound, to win via knockout. If this fight goes to the ground, Oliveira is the more dangerous fighter, and utilizes his elite BJJ to win via submission. This can be seen with Oliveira’s +220 odds to win via submission. Overall, Oliveira is the more dangerous fighter, and comes with the slightly lower price tag. Both fighters can be used, but Oliveira is the preferred play.
Low Priced
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov is a versatile fighting, finishing each of his 25 professional wins. He owns 10 knockouts and 15 submissions. Krylov has also been finished in six of his seven losses, although he has only been knocked out once. He’s an active striker, who mixes in grappling with his attack. Krylov will have a clear edge in overall skill in this fight, but will that be enough to beat Johnny Walker’s physical tools?
Walker won each of his first three UFC fights via knockout in less than three total minutes. He was knocked out by a surging Corey Anderson in his last fight, though. Walker isn’t the most technical fighter in the UFC, but he comes with tremendous power. He does boast a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but hasn’t gone to the ground throughout his UFC career.
Krylov is significantly more versatile, and has more ways to win this fight. Walker simply needs to land one power shot, though, making him as dangerous as anymore on this card. Krylov is surprisingly cheap for a fighter with +110 odds. He’s an odds value play on this slate, although this fight comes with terrible volatility. Each of these fighters possess the upside to end up on the optimal lineup.
