High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ciryl Gane
Ciryl Gane is a great prospect, who possesses a relatively all-around game. He owns two knockouts and three submissions throughout his career, recording a 5-0 record. Gane comes with tremendous power on the feet, and uses his strikes to set up his submissions. He has recorded a Guillotine Choke, Arm-Triangle, and Heel Hook early in his career. He also boasts a near six-inch reach advantage over his opponent this weekend, giving him a massive advantage on the feet.
Tanner Boser isn’t exactly a walk in the park, but isn’t near the prospect of Gane. Boser won his UFC debut, although a win over Daniel Spitz isn’t overly impressive. Boser generally uses his standup throughout his fights, and he does possess power. With that being said, Boser has struggled a bit deeper into fights, posting only a 7-4 record when going to the judge’s scorecards.
This fight is relatively simple. While everyone has a chance in a fight, this is Gane’s fight to lose. He’s a -650 favorite, and boasts -185 odds to win inside the distance. Gane has the advantage in both striking and grappling. I fully expect him to find a finish in the first round, and he’s the safest option with as much upside as anyone on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Gane is a great option this weekend in all leagues. He will win in impressive fashion.
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Jason’s Pick: Dooho Choi
Dooho Choi is one of the more aggressive fighters on this weekend’s Fight Night 165 card. “The Korean Superboy” specializes in boxing, Taekwondo, and Jujutsu. In his last two fights, he lost via decision to Cub Swanson and via knockout to Jeremy Stephens in the second round. Both of those fights earned Fight of the Night honors. In the two fights prior, he defeated Sam Sicilia and Thiago Tavares via knockout, earning Performance of the Night honors in both. Eight of his last eight victories are via finish.
Charles Jourdain is fighting out of Quebec, Canada. The 24-year-old recently lost to Des Green in his UFC debut. Similar to Choi, he is an aggressive fighter, but without Stephens-like power, that isn’t going to work against “The Korean Superboy.” This fight will have fireworks, but it’s not a show that Jourdain is going to want to watch.
Overall, Choi has too much upside to ignore. He is a -300 betting favorite with +110 odds to finish inside the distance. All three of his UFC wins resulted in over 100 DraftKings fantasy points. He is a great option in tournaments tonight, even at his high price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Choi this weekend, but I would probably pay the extra $200 for Ciryl Gane. Both can be used if you can somehow fit them into your lineups together.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Raoni Barcelos
Raoni Barcelos owns a perfect 3-0 record in the UFC, finishing each of his fights. That has been the case throughout his career, as well, as he has finished 10 of his 14 professional wins. Barcelos is an active striker, who comes with tremendous power for his weight class. He is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Barcelos is a solid wrestler, as well, which has led to him recording an 83% takedown accuracy through his first three UFC fights.
Said Nurmagomedov has yet to be taken down in the UFC, but he has only fought twice. While he owns an impressive knockout over Ricardo Ramos, the latter looked “off” before the fight started. He was significantly less impressive in his first fight, recording a split decision against Justin Scoggins. Nurmagomedov does possess finishing potential, but he’s more or less a decision fighter.
Barcelos is a surprisingly small favorite, but that is likely an overreaction to Nurmagomedov’s win against Ramos. He’ll be moving up to 135 pounds this weekend, likely giving Barcelos a power advantage. This fight will be similar on the feet, but Barcelos should have a grappling advantage. Barcelos will also be the more powerful fighter. He comes with finishing potential, and his price tag is a bit too low. Due to his name and close odds, I expect many people use Nurmagomedov as an underdog, making Barcelos an outstanding tournament option.
Jason’s Reaction: I do like Nurmagomedov as an underdog, but perhaps this speaks to your point.
Jason’s Pick: Mike Rodriguez
The Boston-native Mike Rodriguez is 1-1 in his UFC career after a decision loss to John Allan Arte was overturned because Arte tested positive for banned hormone and metabolic modulator tamoxifen. Rodriguez knocked out Adam Milstead in the second round back in December of 2018. The 31-year-old trains with Joe Lauzon, and he is continuously getting better. His knockouts sometimes come in an impressive fashion, much like the flying knee victory over Jamelle Jones that earned him a contract with the UFC.
Dan Un Jung is not a fighter to look past, though. In his UFC debut, he upset Khadis Ibragimov with a standing Guillotine choke in the third round. Fighting out of Korean Top Team, the 25-year-old is 12-2 in his professional MMA career. At 6-foot-4, he possesses impressive power, but Rodrigez, despite being an inch shorter, owns a four-inch reach advantage. The hometown crowd will be behind Jung, but if Rodriguez wins, it likely won’t be a decision anyway.
Overall, Rodriguez is too cheap with too much upside to pass on him in tournaments. In his last two victories, he scored 90 (no strikes awarded) and 128 DraftKings fantasy points respectively. He is currently a small betting favorite via Vegas at -130 with +175 odds to finish inside the distance. Jung is less likely at +325 to finish inside the distance, so Rodriguez should have all three rounds to find his knockout punch.
Justin’s Reaction: I love Rodriguez in tournaments. He comes with plenty of upside for too low of a price tag.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Matt Schnell
Matt Schnell is the constant underdog, who simply finds a way to win fights. After losing his first two UFC fights, he has won four in a row. He has also been the underdog in each fight. He has also finished two of those fights via submission. Schnell is a talented striker, who boasts a black belt in Karate and purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s a well-rounded fighter, who is seemingly coming into his own at the moment.
Alexandre Pantoja is another well-rounded fighter. He owns 7 knockouts, 8 submissions, and 6 decision victories in his 21 career wins. He has also yet to be finished in his career. Statistically, Pantoja owns slightly better striking and grappling than Schnell on paper. The odds suggest Pantoja should have a large advantage in both categories, though.
Schnell boasts a 2.5-inch reach advantage over Pantoja. He also owns slick submissions to go along with solid power. This fight is significantly closer than the odds suggest, and Schnell is a cheap source of upside. While Pantoja is likely the slightly better overall fighter, Schnell does possess ways to win this fight. He makes an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I like this recommendation for tournaments on a card that has relatively little value.
Jason’s Pick: Frankie Edgar
This Saturday’s main event is worth stacking in cash games. Both “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung and Frankie Edgar possess great upside. Edgar is known for his wrestling, competing at the NCAA Division I level in college, and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, earning a first-degree black belt under Ricardo Almeida. He will look to wrestle early, but TKZ will want to keep the fight standing. Edgar’s overall success should be directly correlated to his takedown success. If he gets this fight to the ground, he has finishing potential as well.
Jung’s only two losses in the UFC came via Jose Aldo for the UFC Featherweight Championship and Yair Rodriguez via a literal last-second knockout elbow strike. Jung was likely winning the latter fight. He owns a fourth-dan black belt in Hapkido, a third-dan black belt in Taekwondo, a black belt in Judo, and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. His brown belt should help him if he ends up on his back, but Edgar is the superior grappler. Jung has plenty of upside with +130 inside the distance odds via Vegas, but there are holes in his game.
Overall, Jung likely wins this fight, but Edgar has a clear path to victory. If he can find takedowns early on, he could wear Jung out and frustrate him into making mistakes on the feet. Edgar only lost to elite-level competition in Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, and Max Holloway since 2013. His striking is good enough to keep this fight competitive, and his price tag is low. He is a good, cheap flier in tournaments, as well as a stack-piece in cash games.
Justin’s Reaction: Edgar is certainly a live dog, but I favor “The Korean Zombie” by a relatively wide margin. I think TKZ is being undervalued by most, which will make Edgar popular, as well. To be fair, I was a bit surprised by this line, but I do agree with it.
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