High Priced
Curtis Blaydes
Curtis Blaydes is a dominant wrestler with power in his hands. He has two losses in his career, both coming to Francis Ngannou. He has shown a spectacular chin in the UFC while possessing TKO wins over Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Aleksei Oleinik. Blaydes has landed 4 or more takedowns in 7 of his last 10 fights, topping out at 10 takedowns against Mark Hunt.
Alexander Volkov has lost only once in his UFC career. He was knocked out in the final seconds of a fight he was clearly winning against Derrick Lewis. Volkov is a technical striker, who lacks true power for his division, but can still put opponents away. He utilizes his reach extremely well, but he won’t have that against Blaydes, who also possesses an 80 in reach.
Blaydes is a -430 favorite in this fight with -245 odds to win inside the distance. He boasts an outstanding floor because of his wrestling upside, and he recently posted on Twitter that he fully plans to use it in this fight. The most likely scenario is that he lands a few takedowns on his way to another TKO victory. He’s one of the best options on this slate, although he isn’t going to come cheap.
Mid-Priced
Frank Camacho
Frank Camacho has seen plenty of ups and downs in the UFC, but he keeps getting fights because he’s exciting. He’ll throw caution to the wind, bit down on his mouthpiece, and take a punch to deliver one. Camacho has solid takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where this fight will take place. The most likely scenario is that he goes headhunting for a knockout while taking a bit of damage in the process.
Camacho was originally slated to take on Matt Frevola, but he was removed from this fight after his cornerman tested positive for Corona. Instead, Justin Jaynes will step in. Jaynes has found success on the regional circuit, ending each of his last three fights in the first round. Overall, he has finished 12 of his 15 wins, while never being finished. This is a major step up in competition, though, and there’s very little reason to believe he’ll be ready for it.
Camacho is priced as a small underdog, but he’s a -340 favorite this weekend. He boasts -180 odds to finish inside the distance, as well. Camacho boasts tremendous upside, scoring 120 fantasy points in each of his two UFC wins while posting 82 fantasy points in a decision loss to Drew Dober. Camacho is far too cheap for someone that possesses 100 fantasy point upside, and he should be used in all leagues on this slate.
Low Priced
Josh Emmett
It was only three fights ago that Josh Emmett was brutally knocked out by Jeremy Stephens. Many wondered how he would come back, and he has answered with knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Along with devastating power, Emmett is an outstanding wrestler. He doesn’t often use it in the UFC, but it’s an extra aspect of the game for him to fall back on if needed.
Shane Burgos is an outstanding prospect, recording a 6-1 record in the UFC. His only loss came to Calvin Kattar, but his wins have been less than stellar. The biggest issue with Burgos is his striking defense. He was knocked out by Kattar, dropped by Kurt Holobaugh, and allowed 258 significant strikes to Cub Swanson. Burgos has found tremendous striking success in his career, but it has certainly come at a cost.
Emmett is currently a +125 underdog. He has +215 odds to win inside the distance, though. Burgos should easily win the volume battle, meaning he’ll be the favorite to win a decision if Emmett doesn’t utilize his wrestling. The problem is Burgos gets hit often, and Emmett has more than enough power to knock him out. Add in that Burgos will be pressuring in a small cage, and Emmett will be forced to throw his power shots. Emmett’s knockout potential makes him one of the best underdogs on this card, and he’s expected to be popular this weekend.
