High Priced
Israel Adesanya
This is a relatively straightforward fight, as each fighter will have a clear advantage. Israel Adesanya is one of the best strikers in the world, boasting an 75-5 kickboxing record, 5-1 boxing record, and 18-0 MMA record. He’s 7-0 in the UFC, defeating Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker in his last two fights. Adesanya has been able to dictate where his fights take place, as he enters this fight with an 85% takedown defense rate.
Yoel Romero is a powerful fighter, who comes with a puncher’s chance if this fight stays standing. He owns Olympic wrestling credentials, though. Romero has lost three of his last four fights, but there could be a case made that he won each of those fights, as well. He could struggle with the length and technique of Adesanya if he can’t get this fight to the ground, though.
This fight has -140 odds to finish inside the distance. Adesanya also boasts +165 odds to finish inside the distance. Even if he doesn’t find a finish, Adesanya scored 125 and 96 fantasy points in his two five round decision wins. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he makes an elite option on this slate.
Mid-Priced
Li Jingliang
Li Jingliang will take the octagon for the first time in 2020 on Saturday. He has found tremendous success in the UFC, posting a 9-3 record since 2014. He has won a bonus in five of his last six games, as well. Jingliang is a pressure fighter with tremendous power, allowing him to consistently walk his opponent down. He’s also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Jingliang doesn’t often use his grappling, though, as he mostly relies on heavy hands and an outstanding chin.
Neil Magny is a jack of all trades, master of none. He is a verteran in the octagon, posting a 14-6 record in the UFC since debuting in 2013. Magny often loses when he steps up in competition, though, as his last three wins have come against a non-factor in the UFC (Craig White) and two fighters well past their prime (Carlos Condit, Johny Hendricks). Magny is a fighter that has struggled with Jingliang’s style of forward pressure in the past, as well.
This game is set at -115 to finish inside the distance, essentially giving it a coin flip of a chance. Jingliang also boasts +140 inside the distance odds, making this the most likely finish to the fight. He isn’t overly expensive, meaning he could hit value in a decision win, but Jingliang comes with tremendous upside for his price tag.
Low Priced
Joanna Jedzejcyk
Joanna Jedzejcyk is a polarizing figure in MMA at this point. She was one of the best fighters in the world before losing three of her last five fights. Two of those losses came to Rose Namajunas, although some believe she won their rematch. She also lost to Valentina Shevchenko at flyweight. Jedzejcyk is one of the best strikers in the world, and will return to the division she dominated for years.
Weili Zhang came out of nowhere, winning the women’s strawweight championship in only her fourth UFC fight. She has looked good throughout her career, but is rather untested. Her fight against Jessica Andrade told us virtually nothing, as it lasted less than a minute. Zhang is a pressure fighter, who comes with power, which is a type of fighter Jedzejcyk could potentially struggle against.
This fight has -125 odds to go to decision. Jedzejcyk only has +785 odds to win inside the distance, but she does own +205 odds to win by decision. She’s averaging 131.4 fantasy points per fight in her five round decision wins. Jedzejcyk has the technique to keep Zhang on the outside and control the fight. She is a live dog in this fight, and could potentially hit value in a loss, as well.
