High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman enjoyed a perfect 10-0 start to his UFC career. He won each of his fights in impressive fashion, as well. Usman was an NCAA Division II national champion, while earning All-American honors in each of his three years at the University of Nebraska at Kearney. He also tried out for the Olympic team, but barely missed the cut. On top of that, Usman is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He never struggled with cardio, while possessing power in his punches.
Colby Covington’s game plan is clear in each of his fights. He’s a pressure fighter, who utilizes takedown volume to overwhelm his opponents. He was an All American at Oregon State. Covington possesses arguably the best cardio in the UFC, allowing him to pressure his opponents from the start of his fights to the end. He boasts a 10-1 record in the UFC, losing to Warlley Alves in 2015.
This fight seems rather simple, though the public doesn’t see it that way. Usman is better in nearly every aspect of the game. Covington will have the cardio advantage, but Usman isn’t likely to gas. He also has the power and defensive wrestling to keep Covington from being able to pressure throughout the entire fight. Furthermore, Usman has the offensive wrestling to put Covington on his back for longer than a short period of time. Overall, I expect Usman to dominate from bell to bell, although Covington could keep this fight somewhat close with his elite output.
Jason’s Reaction: Agreed. Covington is getting a lot of love from the MMA DFS community, which actually makes Usman an even better option in tournaments.
You must be logged in to view the content below. Click HERE to log in.[restrict]
Jason’s Pick: Marlon Moraes
A few years ago, the UFC universe considered Jose Aldo one of the greatest active fighters in the sport. This weekend, he looks to salvage his career against Marlon Moraes after losing three of his last five fights. He defeated both Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano via knockout, but lost to Max Holloway twice and Alexander Volkanovski. While it is true that Aldo only lost to Volkanovski, Holloway, and Conor McGregor over the last 13 years, his weight cut is a concern this Saturday. Aldo looked horrible in his face-off with Moraes, and the latter possesses too much power to ignore Aldo’s deteriorating chin.
Moraes is underrated. He recently lost to Henry Cejudo for the vacant UFC Bantamweight Championship, but prior to that, he defeated John Dodson, Aljamain Sterling, Jimmie Rivera, and Raphael Assuncao in order. Three of those four wins came via finish. Moraes has devastating power, and while Aldo’s footwork should make more difficult for Moraes to utilize it, he only needs to land one punch in three rounds. Vegas understands, giving Moraes +132 odds to finish inside the distance.
Overall, Moraes’s pressure and power should be too much for Aldo to handle. If Aldo does win this fight, he could get a title opportunity against Cejudo, but if he is overlooking his Brazilian counterpart, he already lost. Both fighters have black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and this fight should stay standing. Expect an active, entertaining boxing and Muay Thai matchup.
Justin’s Reaction: Call me crazy, but I expect this fight to be somewhat boring from an output standpoint. I’m not sure either fighter is going to be looking to engage all that much. With that being said, it’s impossible to ignore Aldo’s weight cut and Moraes’ power. I expect him to find a finish.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Oskar Piechota
Oskar Piechota looked outstanding early in his career. He won his first two UFC fights, but lost his last two after that. Piechota struggles with his cardio, but he boasts elite finishing potential, finishing 10 of his 11 wins, including 5 knockouts and 5 submissions. He also boasts +165 odds to win inside the distance. Most importantly, Piechota gets an easier matchup than he has seen in recent fights.
Punahele Soriano will be standing across the octagon from Piechota. The former won each of his six professional fights, including five finishes. With that being said, he faced virtually no competition. Soriano has only fought two opponents with winning records. Similarly to Piechota, Soriano is a versatile fighter with multiple ways to win this fight. He lacks submission versatility and could struggle in grappling situations.
I expect this fight to be competitive throughout. These two fighters feature similar striking potential, though Soriano could have a slight edge. Still, Piechota has never been knocked out and features an outstanding chin. The grappling situation could be a different story. Piechota is long and knows submissions from multiple positions. He has more ways to win this fight, and he comes with odds value as a -120 favorite.
Jason’s Reaction: This is a difficult card to find value without rostering Covington, and Piechota offers just that. Good recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Chase Hooper
Chase Hooper is making his UFC debut this Saturday against Daniel Teymur. “The Teenage Dream,” as he calls himself, is undefeated in his professional MMA career with one split decision draw. At only 20 years old, Hooper has a lot of learning and growing to do, but that also means he should be significantly better every fight. His last fight was about six months ago, and he will be looking to show the UFC universe what he has learned since then.
Daniel Teymur in the older brother to David Teymur and has an advanced background in Muay Thai, kickboxing, and submission wrestling. Entering the UFC in July of 2017, he lost three consecutive fights to Danny Henry, Julio Arce, and Chris Fishgold. In June of 2019, he finally notched his first UFC victory, defeating Sung Bin Jo via decision. Teymur’s upside is very limited, and his finishing potential is almost nonexistent.
If the bright lights don’t intimidate him, Hooper should be able to control this fight. He has great upside for his price tag, as well. Vegas currently has him as +165 to finish. At $8.3K on DraftKings, there is no denying that Hooper possesses the potential to end up on the optimal lineup. Roster him in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: Hooper was the fighter I was considering here, so I love this call. Did you see him at weigh ins? Teymur tried to fake him out, and Hooper didn’t move an inch. This fight is going to end with a sub.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski looks elite in the UFC. He boasts a 7-0 record, finishing three fights via (T)KO. He is a pressure fighter, who utilizes tremendous cardio with solid wrestling when needed and is averaging 107.2 fantasy points per fight throughout his UFC career. Volkanovski also has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, although he doesn’t often use it.
Max Holloway was recently considered the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. He lost to Dustin Poirier at lightweight only two fights ago and those labels disappeared. In his return to featherweight, Holloway dominated Frankie Edgar. He’s an active striker, who comes with tremendous takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where his fights take place. Similarly to Volkanovski, Holloway boasts elite cardio, allowing him to strike at an elite rate while on the feet.
This is a great fight to target. Volkanovski possesses a pressure that Holloway has struggled with before, but this should be a striking match throughout. Holloway won’t struggle as much with Volkanovski’s power as he did with the power of Poirier. Ultimately, I don’t truly expect Volkanovski to win this fight, but I do believe he’s a live dog. He may not need a win to hit value, as this fight will feature an unbelievable pace.
Jason’s Reaction: Holloway should win this fight. Volkanovski is a great tournament flier, and the fight can be stacked in cash games. Be strategic about your Volkanovski shares.
Jason’s Pick: Mike Perry
The underdogs this weekend are terrible. Geoff Neal is likely going to win this fight, but Mike Perry is never one to back down from a brawl. If Neal hurts him early, Perry will start swinging for the fences, which isn’t ideal for his overall success rate in the octagon, but it does increase his upside on DraftKings. Perry has knockout potential, and his lower price tag makes it easier to roster better fighters at higher price tags. This recommendation comes with a lot of hesitancy, but there is no avoiding it; Perry should be included in some tournament lineups. Don’t analyze or overthink it.
Justin’s Reaction: Perry said something interesting at their media day. He believes that if he wins this fight and Covington loses his, it makes sense to match them up. Knowing what Covington has said about Perry’s wife and that the UFC won’t let Perry anywhere near Covington, it could add a little motivation. I believe Neal finds a relatively early finish in this fight, but it’s an interesting narrative. I also agree Perry has plenty of GPP upside.
[/restrict]
