Welcome to the ‘Battle of the Bales’ fantasy MMA breakdown. This article offers UFC DraftKings picks for the upcoming UFC 243 card this Saturday. Justin will offer a recommendation, followed by Jason’s response. DFS Karma readers can probably guess what happens next. Jason will offer a recommendation, followed by Justin’s response.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC 243 – High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Megan Anderson
Megan Anderson has quite a bit of potential, but she has struggled with her ground game in the UFC. Luckily, her opponent, Zarah Fairn dos Santos, is also a striker. This fight should play out on the feet, where Anderson has been at her best throughout her career. Anderson features a slight reach advantage, and she should have a significant advantage in striking. This is a bit of a contrarian play, as well, as the majority of fantasy players will likely spend up on Tai Tuivasa over Anderson. The latter is the safest play on the card, but she also comes with plenty of upside, as she boasts -150 inside the distance odds.
Jason’s Reaction: This is a great contrarian recommendation, though I do like Tuivasa for a first-round knockout. If Anderson outscores him, fantasy owners that rostered her will have a huge advantage.
Jason’s Pick: Maki Pitolo
Maki Pitolo will make his UFC debut this weekend, excluding his win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, against Callan Potter, who shares his name with the actor famous for his role in The Other Kingdom. Potter, the fighter and not the actor, most recently stepped into the octagon against the up-and-coming Jalin Turner. The only positive about that performance for Potter was that it took him less than a minute to earn his paycheck. Pitolo is a Hawaiian-born striker that recently defeated Justin Sumter on DWTNCS. He has solid power, and Vegas currently has him as a -335 betting favorite. His inside the distance odds are the second highest on the UFC 243 card at -230. His upside is great, and his price tag is rather reasonable. Pitolo does come with some risk, as do all unknown, less-experienced fighters, but he should be able to score over 90 fantasy points this Saturday.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m a fan of Pitolo on the UFC 243 card. He’s a relatively safe option, who also comes with tremendous upside.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC 243 – Mid Priced
Justin’s Pick: Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker has to be the most undervalued fighter in the history of the UFC. He’s 8-0 in the UFC as a middleweight, including two wins over Yoel Romero and a win over Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. He gets a matchup against Israel Adesanya, who has an extensive kickboxing background. He’s coming off of an impressive win over Kelvin Gastelum, but he struggled at times in that fight. Whittaker has better striking than Gastelum, and I feel he has the potential to edge Adesanya. Most importantly, he boasts the power advantage in this fight. I expect this fight to stay standing for the majority of the time, and Whittaker’s power will make the difference in this matchup.
Jason’s Reaction: I personally don’t understand how Robert Whittaker is the underdog. Adesanya will likely be the more highly-owned DraftKings fighter, so getting Whittaker as a contrarian play is elite.
Jason’s Pick: Brad Riddell
Brad Riddell is will make his UFC debut this weekend against Jamie Mullarkey, a fighter best known for his knockout loss to Alexander Volkanovski. Losing to Volkanovski is acceptable, but Mullarkey recently lost via knockout to Luke Catubig, and Riddell has great striking as a former kickboxing champion. Riddell does a decent job of mixing in takedown attempts, but his only professional MMA loss came via submission while in top position. It is unlikely that he needs to utilize his takedown offense against Mullarkey. He will, however, have to utilize his takedown defense, and he should be able to keep this fight standing. If he does, he has great knockout potential for a reasonable price tag. Vegas has Riddell as the -170 betting favorite currently, and his inside the distance odds are +170.
Justin’s Reaction: I agree with this. Riddell should be able to find a knockout in this fight, and he makes a great option for his price tag.
UFC DraftKings Picks – UFC 243 – Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Yorgan De Castro
This is truly a 50/50 fight. Yorgan De Castro is 5-0 with four knockouts, while Justin Tafa owns a 3-0 record with three knockouts. These are two heavyweights that are likely to walk to the middle of the octagon and swing until one falls down. In that type of a fight, I have no problems taking the cheaper option. Tafa has also fought only one opponent with a win on his record. He doesn’t truly deserve to be in the UFC, while De Casto at least won on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. I have very little confidence in either of these two fighters, but I have a solid amount of confidence that this fight will feature a fighter that scores extremely well in terms of fantasy. De Castro should strictly be used in tournaments.
Jason’s Reaction: I like the De Castro recommendation, but ultimately, Tafa is the better technical striker. If this becomes a fire fight, De Castro is a great underdog to own. If Tafa utilizes his superior skill set, he wins. It is worth noting that Tafa trains with Tai Tuivasa.
Jason’s Pick: Nadia Kassem
Nadia Kassem has only ever fought professionally in Australia, and UFC 243 is no different. She will be the hometown hero against Ji Yeon Kim, but also the +155 underdog. Kassem is a boxer with solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while Kim mixes in Hapkido and Wushu. She is a black belt in both of the former-mentioned fighting styles. Even so, this fight is very likely to go the distance at -350, and Kassem could do enough in the striking department to find a decision victory. In an ideal world, the better fighter would win after the end of 15 minutes, but the UFC judges are notorious for playing favorites, and Kassem should see a slight edge based on her nationality. The crowd will be cheering for all her strikes, which could make an impression on the judge’s scorecard as well. All in all, Kassem is a live underdog, and she is worth consideration in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: This is great reasoning. Kassem should see three full rounds, although there are obviously higher upside underdogs on this card.
