High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira has always seemingly found ways to lose in the UFC. However, he looks like he is reaching his potential, winning each of his last five fights. He owns four submissions and one (T)KO over that time span. Oliveira is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while possessing enough striking prowess to handle himself early in fights. His biggest issue is his cardio, but that hasn’t been a major problem in recent fights.
Jared Gordon is a fighter that fans love to cheer for. He’s tough, active, and always willing to put on a show. With that being said, his only advantage in this fight is cardio. Gordon does own a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, as well.
While Gordon has displayed impressive grappling at times throughout his career, Oliveira is on another level. If this fight hits the ground, Oliveira will have a sizable advantage, and he’s likely to finish via submission. If the fight stays standing, both fighters have the potential to hold their own. I don’t expect this fight to go on longer than two rounds, which should take the cardio out of the question.
Jason’s Reaction: Oliveira is expensive but for great reasons this weekend. He is the best option in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz turned down a future title opportunity against Jon “Bones” Jones to compete against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza in São Paulo, Brazil. The middleweight division is admittedly deeper than the light heavyweight division, and Souza has been near the top of the former for years. However, Blachowicz is the much bigger fighter, and he should be able to use his size advantage to eventually find a finish this Saturday.
Both Blachowicz and Souza are black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, meaning this fight will likely remain standing. These two fighters should respect each other’s ground games enough to avoid grappling. If it does turn into a grappling match, Blachowicz’s size comes into play again. He will be able to stuff Souza’s takedown attempts by using his strength.
Souza’s chin has withstood the test of time, but he never competed at light heavyweight. The strikes he is going to have to endure are more powerful, and Blachowicz should find a knockout in the later rounds. He is too cheap at $8.9K on DraftKings, and he can be rostered in both GPPs and 50/50s.
Justin’s Reaction: I side with Blachowicz here, but I have no problems with anyone using Souza either. While I will end up playing one side of this fight (in GPPs) and possibly both in cash, I’m going to sit back, relax, and enjoy an outstanding matchup.
Mid-Priced
Justin’s Pick: Andre Muniz
This is an extremely clear-cut fight that doesn’t need a ton of analysis. Andre Muniz will have a decisive grappling advantage, while Antonio Arroyo is a significantly better striker. Muniz finished 16 of his 18 wins, including 12 submission victories. He lost each of his four losses by (T)KO.
Antonio Arroyo finished eight of his nine victories. He owns four knockouts and four submissions. Each of Arroyo’s two losses came via submission. His submission offense comes when he’s controlling the grappling, which isn’t likely to be the case in this fight.
If this fight hits the ground, Muniz gains a massive advantage. If this fight stays standing, Arroyo gains the advantage. Either way, you should have a piece of this fight, as it isn’t expected to finish. I’ll take the slight favorite, who comes with more upside because of his need to grapple to win.
Jason’s Reaction: I love this recommendation. Roster Muniz in tournaments without hesitation.
Jason’s Pick: Warlley Alves
Warlley Alves is on home soil this weekend during Fight Night 164 against Massachusetts-born Randy Brown. Alves has as sneaky guillotine choke, but he is not a submission specialist. He keeps most fights standing, and he possesses high-level striking. Randy Brown has a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, focusing on his wrestling and boxing.
Alves recently defeated Sergio Moraes via knockout in the third round. Both of his last two victories are via knockout, and his inside the distance odds this Saturday are decent at +200, which is especially good for Alves only being a -125 betting favorite. Brown has far less power, meaning that if Alves does not find a finish, he has a chance to get some hometown favoritism via the Brazilian judges. The upside at $8.3K on DraftKings is too high to pass up.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m not really an Alves guy, but fighting at home with an $8.3K price tag is enticing. If he were any more expensive, I’d likely have had to pass. Good call.
Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Paul Craig
I hate this recommendation, but I’m looking for high upside for a low price tag. Paul Craig is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He finished each of his 12 wins, including 11 by submission. Craig nearly knocked out Vinicius Moreira in his last fight before jumping on a submission and finding the victory. Craig was knocked out three times in his career and lost by submission only once.
Mauricio Rua is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but only won one fight by submission in his career. He has been submitted three times throughout his career. Rua does own 21 knockout victories, while losing by knockout 5 times. He is on a surprising run recently, winning four of his last five fights, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this resurgence come to an end shortly, as he’s 36 years old.
The most likely scenario is that Rua finds a knockout in this fight. Craig does come with some submission potential, though, and he’s an extremely cheap option. He should only be considered in tournaments. As Jason mentions below, there aren’t many strong salary relief options this weekend, and taking pure upside makes sense.
Jason’s Reaction: Craig is always worth a dart in tournament lineups.
Jason’s Pick: Ariane Lipski
Finding enough underdogs to fill out a roster is difficult this weekend on DraftKings. Ariane Lipski is priced at $7.7K, but she is currently a small betting favorite over Veronica Macedo (-115). Honestly, an analysis isn’t needed here. In cash games, Lipski is a lock. This fight is a true coin flip, and she has the better salary relief. In tournaments, Lipski also makes sense because the underdogs this weekend are mostly going to end up hearing the judge’s scorecard. When there aren’t high-upside underdogs, keep it safe.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no real issues with this analysis. Always take the value.
