Welcome to the ‘Battle of the Bales’ fantasy MMA breakdown. This article offers UFC DraftKings picks for the upcoming Fight Night 162 card this Saturday. Justin will offer a recommendation, followed by Jason’s response. DFS Karma readers can probably guess what happens next. Jason will offer a recommendation, followed by Justin’s response.
UFC DraftKings Picks – Fight Night 162 – High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ciryl Gane
We know very little about Ciryl Gane aside from the fact that he is one of the highest-hyped heavyweight prospects in the UFC. He is best known for his Muay Thai and training with Francis Ngannou.
Gane boasts a 4-0 MMA record (all finishes), including a first-round submission in his UFC debut. He gets a matchup against Don’Tale Mayes, who isn’t necessarily the most impressive prospect in the UFC. Gane stated that Mayes was the seventh fighter the UFC asked to be his opponent, suggesting fighters aren’t willing to let the heavyweight make a name off theirs.
The most likely scenario in this fight is that Gane finds another first-round finish, as he boasts -215 inside the distance odds. He’s an elite option in all leagues this weekend.
Jason’s Reaction: Gane is expensive, but he is worth that high price tag.
Jason’s Pick: Sergei Pavlovich
Sergei Pavlovich is another high-upside tournament option on DraftKings for Fight Night 162. He has one loss in his professional MMA career, which came via knockout to Alistair Overeem in November of 2018. He rebounded from that loss with a win over Marcelo Golm, knocking him out in a little over one minute.
This weekend, he steps into the octagon with Maurice Greene. Greene impressed UFC audiences with wins over Michel Batista (Dave would be more impressive), Jeff Hughes, and Junior Albini. The level of competition that he ran through is not on par with Pavlovich’s skill set.
Pavlovich is a -245 betting favorite with -119 odds to finish inside the distance, and he makes for a sneaky alternative to the more popular Gane in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: Pavlovich is fine in GPPs, but I’d rather take the savings on Greene.
UFC DraftKings Picks – Fight Night 162 – Mid Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ben Askren
This is a matchup between two of the best grapplers in the world. Ben Askren features an elite wrestling base, while Demian Maia is a fourth-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Fabio Gurgel.
Askren’s wrestling should dictate where this fight takes place, as Maia has struggled with wrestlers in the past. Askren puts himself in dangerous situations if he decides to wrestle, but his ability to control the position should be the key in this fight.
Nearly all of Maia’s submission victories have been via rear-naked chokes, and it’s difficult to believe Askren will allow Maia to make his way to his back. There is definitely risk to Askren because of Maia’s submission offense, but he comes with tremendous upside with a reasonable price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Askren is the best tournament option on DraftKings’ Fight Night 162 slate.
Jason’s Pick: Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov is slightly more expensive than Ben Askren, which means he will likely go under-owned this weekend. In his last two fights, he knocked out his opponents in the first and second rounds, failing to utilize his Honored Master of Sports in Wushu Sambo. He scored at least 90 fantasy points in all of his UFC wins thus far.
Laureano Staropoli entered the UFC against Hector Aldana, picking up a decision victory. In his next fight, he looked very impressive against Thiago Alves. He’s a well-rounded fighter with solid striking.
Salikhov has the advantage almost anywhere in this fight. He has the wrestling to get Staropoli to the ground if he finds himself in trouble, but he also has the striking to win if this fight stays standing. Salikhov has much more power in his hands than Staropoli, and he is a great tournament option this weekend.
Justin’s Reaction: I like Salikhov quite a bit. I don’t think he’s the safest option on the slate, but he’s an outstanding tournament option.
UFC DraftKings Picks – Fight Night 162 – Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Maurice Greene
This is an extremely weird fight in the heavyweight division. Maurice Greene is four inches taller than Sergei Pavlovich, but the latter boasts a two-inch reach advantage. Still, I think there’s value in Greene at the moment.
Pavlovich has only ever lost to Alistair Overeem, but his only UFC win is far from impressive. I wouldn’t necessarily put Greene’s wins on a pedestal either, though.
Greene is the more versatile fighter, as he boasts power in his hands to go along with solid submission grappling. While Pavlovich has a slight edge in the striking because of his power, Greene has other skills that he can fall back on. At worst, Greene should be a small underdog, and I’m willing to take the shot on him for one of the lowest price tags on the slate.
Jason’s Reaction: Wrong.
Jason’s Pick: Loma Lookboonmee
When Joe (SunTszu on DraftKings) recommends a female MMA fighter, listen. A few days ago, he tweeted out that Aleksandra Albu’s line was too heavy in her direction, suggesting Loma Lookboonmee would flip to the favorite.
UFC Singapore: This line is just plain wrong! Will flip. pic.twitter.com/2GXPZsHm5v
— Art of War (@suntszu) October 22, 2019
On DraftKings, Lookboonmee is priced as a slight favorite, but that doesn’t mean she doesn’t provide great value. She has finishing potential due to her well-placed Muay Thai strikes, and Aleksandra Albu is going to want to keep range with her black belt in Karate. If Lookboonmee can close distance, she has a great chance to pick up fantasy points with quick and painful Muay Thai strikes.
Lookboonmee has shown a solid ground game, as well. If she wins this fight, for her price tag, she will hit value. The 23-year-old out of Thailand is not a super cheap option like Maurice Greene, but she provides enough value to justify the recommendation in this slot.
Justin’s Reaction: Please excuse Jason. He isn’t quite sure what “low priced” means. In all seriousness, I like this play, and I’ll be on Lookboonmee this weekend.
