Welcome to the ‘Battle of the Bales’ fantasy MMA breakdown. This article offers UFC DraftKings picks for the upcoming Fight Night 161 card this Saturday. Justin will offer a recommendation, followed by Jason’s response. DFS Karma readers can probably guess what happens next. Jason will offer a recommendation, followed by Justin’s response.
UFC DraftKings Picks – Fight Night 161 – High Priced
Justin’s Pick: Ryan Spann
Ryan Spann is seemingly going undervalued in this fight. Devin Clark is a well-rounded fighter, but he isn’t great anywhere. On the other end, Spann is also a well-rounded fighter, but he is more dangerous on the feet and the ground. He’s the more athletic of the two fighters, as well.
Most importantly, Spann enters this fight with a 6.5-inch reach advantage. He’ll be able to control the distance on the feet, and his length makes him dangerous in grappling situations. Clark is being overvalued because of his upset win over Darko Stosic, but this is a different matchup, and I expect Spann to find a knockout relatively early in this fight.
Jason’s Reaction: Spann is a great option on DraftKings this weekend based solely on his finishing odds. He has great upside and should be a go-to tournament pick.
Jason’s Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Fight Night 161 looked to be in peril a couple of days ago, but Joanna Jedrzejczyk made weight, and she looked good doing it. Her tactics are definitely questionable, as she asked Michelle Waterson to fight at catch weight in an effort to not deplete her body, but Waterson refused, and rightly so. Unfortunately for Waterson, she is in a nearly unwinnable situation this weekend.
Jedrzejczyk has great takedown defense, and despite her black belt in American Freestyle Karate, Waterson possesses inferior striking. Jedrzejczyk is a -335 betting favorite via Vegas, and she has decent +350 odds to finish inside the distance. Her price tag is steep, but her output is unmatched, and she should score high in a five-round fight.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m also on Jedrzejczyk this weekend.
UFC DraftKings Picks – Fight Night 161 – Mid Priced
Justin’s Pick: Niko Price
This is a fight between two overrated fighters. James Vick loves fighting with his chin in the air, and he has been brutally knocked out in recent fights. Niko Price brings tremendous power into this fight, and I’m expecting a quick knockout. Keep in mind, Price isn’t nearly as talented as his record suggests, so I wouldn’t be overly shocked if Vick finds a win, but I’m fully expecting Price to viciously knockout Vick in the first round.
Jason’s Reaction: Price has insane upside for his price tag. He needs to be rostered in both cash games and tournaments this weekend. Vick has fought the better competition, but he has looked so bad over his last couple of fights that avoiding Price is too risky.
Jason’s Pick: Mackenzie Dern
Fight Night 161 is loaded with close matchups between relatively even-matched fighters. The key to success this weekend is finding the fighters that don’t allow the fight to go to the judges’ scorecards. Mackenzie Dern is one of those fighters. According to Vegas, she is a -145 betting favorite with +125 odds to finish inside the distance. Dern has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a very clear advantage against Amanda Ribas if this fight hits the mat. Ribas has her own submission skill set, but Dern will likely outmatch her. Either way, this fight is -160 to not see the judges’ scorecards, and the upside should be obvious on DraftKings at Dern’s reasonable price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I love Dern’s price tag this weekend. She makes an outstanding option in the mid-price range.
UFC DraftKings Picks – Fight Night 161 – Low Priced
Justin’s Pick: Cub Swanson
This is a clear-cut grappler versus striker matchup. Kron Gracie is an elite submission grappler, but he also possesses a black belt in Judo. Cub Swanson will have a clear advantage on the feet, though. At this point, he is a gatekeeper in this division. He’s 4-6 in his last 10 fights, but has only lost to elite competition, including Max Holloway, Frankie Edgar, and Brian Ortega.
Gracie’s biggest win has come against Alex Caceres, and this will be a massive step up in competition for the BJJ practitioner. If Swanson can keep this standing, it’s his fight to lose. While that isn’t the most likely scenario, it isn’t often we get this cheap of a price tag with a fighter who has a clear path to victory. Keep in mind, he quietly owns +330 win inside the distance odds, and he’s a solid GPP option for a low price tag on Fight Night 161.
Jason’s Reaction: Cub Swanson is a great, high-upside recommendation for this weekend’s DraftKings slate.
Jason’s Pick: Michelle Waterson
“Wait, didn’t you just pick Joanna Jedrzejczyk?” Yes, I did. This is a lesson in fight script, as well as DraftKings strategy. Michelle Waterson is worth consideration in tournaments this weekend, and she can be paired with Joanna Jedrzejczyk in cash games. Jedrzejczyk’s weight cut debacle is concerning, and her chin has shown some wear and tear over her last few fights.
Waterson has elite American Freestyle Karate, and if she finds her mark early, Jedrzejczyk’s depleted body could fail her. This is rather unlikely, but Waterson’s very low price tag opens up the possibility of rostering five other betting favorites, and especially considering the high upside of the mid-priced options, this could be a great move.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m also good with Waterson because she’s likely to get five rounds in this fight. Stack this fight in cash games, and pick either side in GPPs, as Jason mentioned.
