Gilbert Burns (-247)
This is an extremely large step-up in competition for Mike Davis. Aside from a loss to Sodiq Yusuff, who has found success in the UFC, Davis hasn’t truly fought any top competition. Now he’ll join the UFC, and take on Gilbert Burns, who is an extremely high-level fighter. Burns is one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in the world, and he has steadily improved his striking throughout his UFC career. Davis is a solid boxer, though, and there’s no real reason for Burns to trade with him. With that being said, if he decides to, which could potentially happen, Burns has the power to win this fight via (T)KO. His biggest advantage will be on the ground, though, where he will be head-and-shoulders better than Davis. While Davis is a solid prospect, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be able to fight 15 minutes with someone as talented and experienced as Burns.
Bet 1.4 units on Burns by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1 unit
Takashi Sato (-215)
If you read our “Battle of the Bales” article, you know how much I like Takashi Sato this weekend. It isn’t so much about Sato’s skill set, but rather the damage Ben Saunders can handle at this point in his career. Saunders has been finished in each of his last six losses, including three in 2018. He doesn’t have the power to finish Sato on his feet or the wrestling to get him to the ground. Sato, on the other hand, can finish this fight standing or potentially with ground-and-pound. The only true danger he has to worry about in this fight is the guard of Saunders, but he has flashed strong enough ground-and-pound to look past that. Sato will never be an elite fighter in the UFC, but he has the skills and power to hand Saunders another (T)KO loss.
Bet 1.25 units on Sato by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1 unit
Andrei Arlovski (+111)/Augusto Sakai (-141)
This Saturday, Andrei Arlovski will step into the octagon for the first time in 2019. Augusto Sakai is going to be a difficult opponent, which is precisely why we are recommending betting the over, and not betting on Arlovski to win. Sakai has won 10 of his 12 professional fights via (T)KO, but he has yet to fight competition as intelligent as Arlovski. Despite owning an International Master of Sport in Sambo and brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Arlovski prefers to use his defensive kickboxing to attempt to out-point opponents. All of his last five fights have gone decision as a result (excluding the NC to Walt Harris in December of 2018). Even when Arlovski is losing, he is fighting intelligent enough to avoid getting finished. He might bore the fans this Saturday, but he has shown that he just doesn’t care. Sakai will be looking for a finish, but Arlovski will not engage in a fire fight in the same way as Chase Sherman. If Sakai isn’t careful, which he will be, Arlovski will be the one finding the finish.
Bet 1.95 units on OVER 2.5 rounds to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Ronaldo Souza, Roosevelt Roberts, Angela Hill, Court McGee, Takashi Sato, and Gilbert Burns to win 6.16 units
