Michal Oleksiejczuk (-210)
This is a relatively simple fight to analyze. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a powerful striker, who has won 9 of his 13 wins by (T)KO. He has also recorded a knockout in each of his last four ‘official’ fights. For what it’s worth, he also owns one submission win, which is an added bonus, but there’s very little reason to believe he’ll win this fight via submission. His opponent, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, is a pure wrestler, who does come with some power. He’ll be looking to take this fight to the ground, but I don’t expect that to continuously happen. Aside from the obvious skill difference on the feet, there is one major difference between these two fights. Antigulov has been knocked out three times in his career, while Oleksiejczuk recently went three rounds in the UFC against Khalil Rountree. This should be able to neutralize Antigulov’s power, making him one dimensional, and giving Oleksiejczuk a clear advantage on the feet.
Bet 1.2 units on Oleksiejczuk by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1 unit
Arman Tsarukyan (+260)
I wouldn’t go crazy on this bet, but the odds are a bit too wide in my opinion. Islam Makhachev is one of the best Combat Sambo specialists in the world, which is a major concern in this fight. With that being said, Arman Tsarukyan is an extremely talented grappler, and he’ll have an advantage in the striking department. The biggest concern is that Makhachev is too strong for Tsarukyan to stop the grappling exchanges. Purely based on a talent perspective, this line should be significantly closer, but there are always non-talent-based issues, such as Octagon jitters and game planning. Tsarukyan is only 22-years-old, though, and he’s going to be a high-end fighter in the UFC in the future. He has beaten UFC competition in the past, and as long as he can keep his emotions in check and handle the early pressure from Makhachev, he has a very realistic chance to win as a large underdog.
Bet .5 unit on Tsarukyan to win 1.3 units
Sultan Aliev (-120)
Sultan Aliev is one of the best combat sambo athletes on the planet, as an international master of sport. He also has a master of sports in freestyle wrestling, which should help against Keita Nakamura this Saturday. Nakamura is an interesting matchup for Aliev, as he is a judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter with elite-level submission grappling. Fortunately, combat sambo does a relatively good job at thwarting submission attempts, as it does not generally require the maintenance or passing of ground positions. Aliev has had one kind of setback in his MMA career, and that is knockouts. Nakamura is not a striker. He will not knockout Aliev. If he wins, it will be via submission. If he loses, Aliev will pick up the victory either via (T)KO or unanimous decision. Aliev trains with Greg Jackson and Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, and as long as he can stay out of Nakamura’s submission attempts, he should have an easy path to victory. Betting on him for his current odds makes sense.
Bet 1.2 units on Sultan Aliev to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Alistair Overeem, Islam Makhachev, Alexander Yakovlev, Antonina Shevchenko, and Movsar Evloev to win 4.21 units
