Deiveson Figueiredo (-145)
Deiveson Figueiredo has been undervalued his entire career, and it’s happening once again this week. This is an extremely clear fight. Jussier Formiga needs to get this fight to the ground, while Figueiredo wants to use his striking. While I believe Formiga may get this fight to the ground a couple times, I don’t believe he’ll be able to keep Figueiredo down. That will turn the majority of this fight into a striking match, which gives a massive edge to Figueiredo. Not only does he feature the better striking, but he also features tremendous power. Formiga has been rocked and knocked out previously in his career, and I’m expecting Figueiredo to continue to climb his way up the division with another impressive win.
Bet 1.45 unit on Barber to win 1 unit
Bryce Mitchell (+120)
This is an interesting fight for Bryce Mitchell, as he gets a matchup against submission specialist Bobby Moffett. Moffett won a questionable finish against Chas Skelly in his UFC debut, displaying that submission skill. Mitchell has owns grappling credentials, though, owning eight submission wins in his 10 career fights. While I give Moffett the grappling edge, Mitchell should be able to negate it at points in this fight. I then give Mitchell a relatively large edge in the striking. He should be able to control the striking exchanges, while doing enough to keep the grappling exchanges even. If that’s the case, Mitchell has the potential to win a decision. Keep in mind, he does come with finishing potential himself. Mitchell is also an extremely young fighter, who should have improved leaps and bounds from his last performance.
Bet 1 unit on Mitchell to win 1.2 units
JJ Aldrich (+215)
The hype behind Maycee Barber could be influencing her betting odds this weekend. She opened at -265 before quickly falling down under -200, but Barber regained her momentum, as she currently sits at -255 on MyBookie. JJ Aldrich was +148 at her closest-to-even line. The one factor that Barber definitely has over Aldrich is size. Aldrich is moving up to flyweight, which means she can finally dream of a UFC title opportunity without having to step inside the octagon with her teammate Rose Namajunas. Luckily for Aldrich, she never used her power to win fights. She is a third-degree black belt in taekwondo, and she also has a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which could pose problems for Barber. Barber looked extremely impressive in her last fight against Hannah Cifers, but Aldrich is definitely a step up in competition, as she has won three consecutive fights in the UFC. This fight could go either way, but the line should be closer to a coin flip. There is quite a bit of odds value on Aldrich here, but do not roster her on DraftKings, as she is slow and never scores many fantasy points.
Bet .5 units on JJ Aldrich to win 1.07 units
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Stephen Thompson, Curtis Blaydes, John Makdessi, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Eric Shelton to win 5.91 units
