Alex White (-160)
I’ll start this article by stating that you should more or less be treating this card as a GPP, as nothing is certain with this group of fighters. Alex White has burned me in the past, and I’m sure he will in the future, but this is a good spot for him. He’s a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he’s fighting Dan Moret, who has relied heavily on his grappling throughout his career. I feel White should be able to hold his own in the grappling exchanges, which could turn this fight into a striking match. If that’s the case, White has flashed knockout power, while Moret has lost each of his last two fights via knockout. Keep in mind, White also has the ability to finish this with a submission, should he find one, but I’m expecting this fight to end with a White knockout.
Bet 1 unit on White by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 2.2 units
Beneil Dariush (-200)
Beneil Dariush is who I believe is the safest fighter on the card, as I mentioned in our Battle of the Bales article. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai, and one of the most well-rounded lightweight’s in the UFC. He has only truly lost to high-level competition, and that won’t be the case this weekend. He’ll face off against Drew Dober, who owns a 5-1 record over his last six fights, but hasn’t truly won any fights against high-level fighters. Dober is another well-rounded fighter, who relies heavily on his striking. Simply put, I feel Dariush is the more skilled fighter, regardless of where this fight takes place. He’s the more efficient striker, both offensively and defensively. He’s also the more likely party to take this fight to the ground. Outside of a knockout, which isn’t overly likely, I don’t truly see a clear path to victory for Dober.
Bet 2 units on Beneil Dariush to win 1 unit
Derrick Lewis (+183)
The movement on the Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos line is a little bit unbelievable. Back at the end of January, Lewis opened as a +105 underdog, and since then, he fell all the way to +183 on MyBookie. Santos is the better striker, at least from a technical standpoint. Lewis, however, has great kickboxing and defense. For a deeper analysis of how this fight might play out, see our Battle of the Bales MMA article, but as far as betting is concerned, the odds are too wide currently. This line is going to close leading up to the fight, as smart bettors begin to wager on Lewis, even though he is not likely to win this fight. Lewis does not have nearly the gas tank that Santos has, so it might even be wise to bet on Lewis inside distance. If he can find a way to get Santos to the ground, Santos is going to be forced to play defense, which he can do with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, but Lewis is unbearable from the top position. Santos is small for the heavyweight division, and Lewis should be able to use his size to control Santos on the ground. Santos needs to maintain distance and use his speed to frustrate Lewis. Fortunately for bettors, the “Black Beast” will eventually go for broke, if he is losing this fight. Santos is in a tough spot because he will have to pressure Lewis in order to empty his gas tank, but if he pressures too much, he will be in a position to be taken down, which could end the fight. All in all, Lewis should be closer to the +105 underdog he opened as. Do not wait until Saturday to make this wager.
Bet 1 unit on Derrick Lewis to win 1.83 units
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Tim Means, Beneil Dariush, Anthony Rocco Martin, Grant Dawson, and Alex White to win 7.28 units
