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Joseph Benavidez (-155)
Remember in 2013 when Joseph Benavidez closed as a north of -1000 favorite against Jussier Formiga before winning via (T)KO in the first round of that fight? It’s 2019, the fighters still have the same age differential (0), and Benavidez now has significantly worse odds. What has happened since then? Benavidez posted an 8-2 record, losing only to Demetrious Johnson and Sergio Pettis. He also beat the now champ-champ Henry Cejudo. Formiga has also posted an 8-2 record, losing to Cejudo and Ray Borg. His victories haven’t been as impressive, though, and I believe the line is so close because of Benavidez’s fight with Pettis. He looked “off” for a lack of a better word. He knocked out Alex Perez in his next fight, though, and beat Dustin Ortiz in an impressive decision earlier this year. There’s very little reason to believe Formiga has made big enough strides to be this close of an underdog. He needs to get this fight to the ground, and it will be difficult to keep Benavidez down [if he can get him there]. Benavidez will have the striking advantage once again, and the majority of this fight will likely take place on the feet. With significantly more dangerous striking, this is Benavidez’s fight to lose.
Bet 1.55 units on Benavidez to win 1 unit
Maurice Greene (-115)
This is one of the most confusing lines on the card for me. I don’t see any situation in which Junior Albini should be in a pick ‘em fight with Maurice Greene. Greene owns an eight inch reach advantage to go along with more technical striking. He’s also the more dangerous grappler if this fight hits the ground, flashing submissions off of his back. Albini, on the other hand, is the more powerful striker. He hasn’t shown much in the UFC outside of his quick debut against Tim Johnson, which one could argue was a lucky T(KO). Essentially, I see Greene as more athletic with better striking and grappling, while Albini has a bit more power in his hands. When a fight is a pick ‘em, I’ll take that fighter that isn’t hoping for a one punch knockout, especially when that isn’t truly his forte. Greene hasn’t ever been finished in his career (excluding The Ultimate Fighter), and I don’t expect Albini to be the first to get the job done. Greene has the ability to get the job done inside the distance, and I favor him in a decision, as well.
Bet 1.15 units on Greene to win 1 unit
Jared Gordon (-325)
Jared Gordon has fantastic fight script in his upcoming fight against Dan Moret. Moret possesses decent submission offense, and Gordon will have to be somewhat wary of that when he attempts takedown after takedown, but as a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Gordon will not get finished from top position. Moret was thrown to the wolves in his first UFC fight, as he lost via knockout to Gilbert Burns. Prior to that second-round knockout, Burns made Moret look rather confused in a few grappling exchanges. Gordon has a very solid wrestling foundation, and his pace and pressure are both superior to that of Burns. Gordon is looking to bounce back after two disappointing losses, one to Diego Ferreira and one to Joaquim Silva. Moret does not possess even half the skill set of those two fighters, and Gordon should cruise to victory. He has the skills to beat Moret standing, or he can wrestle with him, if he so pleases. If bettors are looking to get a little more reckless, the Gordon by (T)KO, DQ, or submission prop bet at +250 is awfully enticing. If bettors are looking to be safe, just bet the 3.25 units on Gordon to win a unit.
Bet 3.25 units on Jared Gordon to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Francis Ngannou, Roosevelt Roberts, Eryk Anders, Jared Gordon, Dalcha Lungiambula, and Alonzo Menifield to win 4.94 units
